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Username Post: Weekly round up        (Topic#21101)
Posts: 2970

Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
02-04-18 06:08 PM - Post#246111    

http://ivyhoopsonline.com/2018/02/04/ivy-weeken d-r...
west coast fan

Columbia 37P6 
PhD Student
Posts: 1657

Reg: 02-14-06
02-05-18 01:00 AM - Post#246163    
    In response to internetter

A+ grade to Mike Tony for his fabulous write-up in Ivy Hoops Online.

PhD Student
Posts: 1720

Reg: 10-09-09
02-05-18 01:17 PM - Post#246226    
    In response to Columbia 37P6

It is a fair review, with the one major proviso that all such reviews have, i.e., that no one knows to what extent the rest of the season reflects current vs. past performance. As just one example, Columbia now has four players who are averaging 10 or more ppg--Smith, Adlesh, Meisner, and Castlin. Of course, some of our defensive issues remain, in particular, the much referenced trade-off between Smith and Adlesh's offensive strengths and defensive liabilities as short guards. But other signs such as Tape now averaging 3 OR per IL contest, and perhaps more informally, the eyeball test suggesting a greater intensity, point to a better defense going forward.

KP gives us just a mid-30ish% chance of defeating both Yale and Brown away this weekend. Earlier this season, Columbia without Castlin could not beat Yale and Brown. With him and the other improvements, we might be able to.

Posts: 20662

Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 01:22 PM - Post#246227    
    In response to cc66

Are you sure that isn't mid 30s for EACH game? I would be surprised if Columbia has a mid 30s shot to sweep

Chet Forte 
Posts: 2212

Reg: 03-02-08
02-05-18 01:29 PM - Post#246229    
    In response to palestra38

I don’t think enough attention has been paid to the recent improvement in Meisner’s game. He had two excellent games this weekend on both ends of the court. He is much more aggressive in driving to the hoop, has a legitimate three point shot, has been rebounding at a high level, and is playing excellent defense.

Columbia Alum 
Posts: 247

Age: 32
Reg: 11-15-11
02-05-18 01:31 PM - Post#246230    
    In response to palestra38

~30 for each game = ~10% chance of sweep, i think our chances are little better than that, but will be a tough weekend and at least one win is important to getting top 4.

PhD Student
Posts: 1720

Reg: 10-09-09
02-05-18 01:50 PM - Post#246234    
    In response to palestra38

Yes, of course, it's imprecisely worded--I meant a mid-30ish% for each game.

Posts: 5370

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 01:56 PM - Post#246236    
    In response to Columbia Alum

Conditional final odds for each rank based on this weekend's outcome:

Short answer (and probably not surprising) is that a sweep would put you in the driver's seat for the 4th spot, a split would marginally increase your chances and getting swept would be a real problem.

Columbia Sweeps (9.7% of sims):
1st = 1.8%
2nd = 9.2%
3rd = 20.8%
4th = 40.8%
5th = 19.7%
6th = 7.0%
7th = 0.6%

Columbia Splits (42.9% of sims):
1st = 0.5%
2nd = 2.6%
3rd = 10.1%
4th = 28.3%
5th = 30.9%
6th = 22.6%
7th = 4.5%
8th = 0.5%

Columbia Gets Swept (47.4% of sims):
2nd = 0.5%
3rd = 2.7%
4th = 11.5%
5th = 23.8%
6th = 42.3%
7th = 15.7%
8th = 3.3%

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