Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-18 09:29 PM - Post#246659
Having considered the bountiful whining registered here about the unfair home court advantage Penn will again enjoy if it ends up being one of the 4 teams in the Ivy tournament, I have a modest proposal:
Cancel it.
Cancel it now.
Rely on the regular season results.
It’s the only fair thing to do.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-06-18 09:48 PM - Post#246667
In response to Chip Bayers
I think Chip may want to revisit this issue come Sunday morning.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-18 10:06 PM - Post#246672
In response to penn nation
Immaterial if we cancel it now.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-18 11:45 PM - Post#246685
In response to Chip Bayers
About 5 guys sitting behind me at the Princeton game were thanking the Lord that there is a tournament now.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-18 11:53 AM - Post#246726
In response to palestra38
Man, if Penn gets to 8-0, and Harvard gets to 6-2 with a win over Princeton... it’s gonna be a lot like last year where two teams were locked into their respective semifinals with 3 weeks to play.
There would be a LOT of intrigue as to who would fill the other half of each semi, however.
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Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts: 309
Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
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02-07-18 12:39 PM - Post#246735
In response to mrjames
Would love to see it. That said, I would assume Penn's chances of staying undefeated through this weekend are probably only about 1/3.
Last night's win essentially flipped Penn 162 to 141) and Princeton in Ken Pom (142 to 162). Didn't realize one game could have that much impact this late in the season.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-07-18 12:39 PM - Post#246736
In response to mrjames
Harvard at Penn is during the final weekend. That might very well determine the #1 seed and a guaranteed postseason berth. This year’s tourney should be wide open so that guaranteed berth should be highly coveted.
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Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts: 309
Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 12:41 PM - Post#246737
In response to Chip Bayers
Let me be the first Penn person to state unequivocally that I am still a supporter of the tournament even if we win the regular season. The past is the past. I enjoy the broader competition across the league to make the tourney and the prospect of great games to decide the bid.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 12:51 PM - Post#246739
In response to mrjames
Mike, assuming Penn and Harvard make the tourney as 1-2 or 2-1, what do the sims show regarding the 3 and 4 spots?
Cuz a look at the league standings right now show an absolute logjam 3-7.
Edited by T.P.F.K.A.D.W. on 02-07-18 01:20 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 468
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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02-07-18 12:55 PM - Post#246741
In response to penn nation
Harvard at Penn is during the final weekend. That might very well determine the #1 seed and a guaranteed postseason berth. This year’s tourney should be wide open so that guaranteed berth should be highly coveted.
Second to last weekend. Harvard finishes with the Cs at home.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 01:12 PM - Post#246743
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Ran the sims this morning. Haven’t had a chance to send them out, but will soon!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-07-18 02:10 PM - Post#246748
In response to digamma
Ah. My bad.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-18 02:54 PM - Post#246754
In response to digamma
Harvard at Penn is during the final weekend. That might very well determine the #1 seed and a guaranteed postseason berth. This year’s tourney should be wide open so that guaranteed berth should be highly coveted.
Second to last weekend. Harvard finishes with the Cs at home.
And Penn is @Brown, @Yale to finish the regular season.
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Bruno
PhD Student
Posts: 1419
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 03:00 PM - Post#246755
In response to Okoro Dude
Totes
| LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh) |
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 03:10 PM - Post#246759
In response to mrjames
Saw your predictions on your feed but in my humble opinion it overestimates Princeton and underestimates Brown.
That second Princeton Brown game is going to be huge.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4471
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:06 PM - Post#246772
In response to penn nation
So help me understand the value or being a number 1 seed in the tourney?? If we assume either Penn or Harvard will be the 1 seed and the other is the 2 seed, what's the benefit of playing a 4 seed Princeton or a 4 seed Brown (or a 4 seed Yale or other) vs. a 3 seed Princeton or a 3 seed Brown (or a 3 seed Yale or other?)
Despite the obvious home court advantage Penn will enjoy, they will also be faced with a big challenge. For example, can Penn beat Princeton 3 times in one year vs. can Penn beat Brown with their athletically talented group? Is this what an Ivy League tourney is all about??
Or for that matter, what if Penn loses a bunch of games and now is a 3 or 4 seed? How does that change the dynamics?
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:13 PM - Post#246774
In response to Cvonvorys
You are correct - it doesn't change the dynamics. As I've said before, it is flat out painful how diminished the 14 games have become.
The most important thing for Penn the rest of the way: avoid injuries.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:45 PM - Post#246792
In response to Cvonvorys
Right now, the goal is to shoot for the #1 seed.
That means no matter what (given what you've just illustrated) Penn at minimum will be playing in a post-season tourney (NIT) which would have been unthinkable at the beginning of the season.
Given what Penn has done up to this point in the year, it would be a shame for it not to have the chance to play somewhere in the postseason.
This IL tourney is going to be a total crap shoot.
Edited by penn nation on 02-07-18 04:46 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:53 PM - Post#246795
In response to penn nation
It also will almost certainly result in the tournament staying at the Palestra, for who can complain if Penn is the top seed (and we know there really isn't any other place to play it that won't cost $$$$$)
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:54 PM - Post#246797
In response to palestra38
Last I heard, the tournament is still moving next year.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:56 PM - Post#246800
In response to mrjames
Where to? I can't believe they will pay to play it in a privately owned arena. And will they really play it at any of the band boxes?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-18 05:43 PM - Post#246815
In response to mrjames
I heard it is 50/50 staying vs moving.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-18 08:03 PM - Post#246835
In response to PennFan10
I need to check back in. As far as I understood it, there was a desire to move it this season for competitive reasons, it needed to wait a year to execute it at a new venue. Was told that’s why branding things like PathToThePalestra started to change.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-18 10:37 PM - Post#246861
In response to mrjames
Could definitely still end up being the path.
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Big R&B Truth
Masters Student
Posts: 427
Loc: Back Waters of New Englan...
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-10-18 12:04 AM - Post#247192
In response to PennFan10
Yup, let's go back to having no tournament and having most of the Ivy League's games in February being totally meaningless again. It's a great way to attract talent into the league.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-10-18 12:33 AM - Post#247196
In response to Big R&B Truth
I'd love to know how many players have committed to the league or been pushed over the edge thanks to the promise of a tournament. We're certainly not seeing it this year, but I guess the good freshman class was really the first opportunity to see it used (unless there were late 2016 commits).
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-10-18 12:41 AM - Post#247199
In response to Quakers03
Listen to James Jones on Ivyhoopsonline. He says the IL tourney is a huge boost to recruiting.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 07:09 PM - Post#247474
In response to penn nation
Where are the sims? Twitter? Where do I go?
When I look at it unscientifically, it looks possible for 7-7 to even be 3rd place. I don’t pay for pomeroy, but eyeballing the rankings it looks like only Yale would be “expected†to get to .500. Penn and Harvard miss-stepping against someone other than the teams in shouting distance in pomeroy obviously could increase the wins of teams 3-4. But it looks to me like a very strong possibility that 5 teams are playing for 2 spots the last weekend, which I think would be great (again).
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-11-18 07:28 PM - Post#247476
In response to SomeGuy
https://twitter.com/ivybball?lang=en
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-11-18 07:46 PM - Post#247477
In response to mrjames
I said it before this weekend's games, and I'll say it again--the sims are overestimating Princeton's chances.
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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02-11-18 08:04 PM - Post#247478
In response to penn nation
Which is the real Princeton team? The one that swept Cornell/Columbia by a combined 53 points in January, or the one that lost by double digits to Penn, Harvard, and Dartmouth in the last week? Will the December/January version return for the stretch run?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-11-18 08:18 PM - Post#247479
In response to penn nation
Maybe, but despite how it looks the last few games, this run is not inconceivable for the “better†team. At 180 Pomeroy, getting swept by Penn is a reasonable outcome. So his losing the Harvard/Dartmouth road swing, where they would be expected to lose to Harvard and expected to win a tight one at DC. This is still the same Princeton team that smoked Columbia and Cornell while we were struggling mightily. If the Ps play the same way they did that weekend, Princeton will sweep on the road, and we will get swept. 7-7 will likely get them in, so they need to go 4-2. Seems very doable to me.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-11-18 08:23 PM - Post#247480
In response to SomeGuy
Anything is possible, of course. The whole enterprise is probabilistic and as a trained social scientist I get it.
But the modeling was predicated on the "best" version of Princeton moving forward. I found that problematic after three troubling Princeton home games, and one would think that after two more subpar performances (on the road) the initial modeling assumptions should be tweaked.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-11-18 08:34 PM - Post#247482
In response to penn nation
Did the modeling presume Princeton would be what they were that C’s weekend? I thought it was looking at the season as a whole, with even some offseason presumptions based on last year baked in. It seems to me that is the right approach— we can’t assume either this past week or the C’s weekend define the team. All of these results are more information as to the range of possible outcomes for them.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-11-18 08:41 PM - Post#247483
In response to SomeGuy
Correct. The modeling is based on season long inputs (I pull in from a variety of sources - CBBRef, Bart Torvik, KenPom, etc - to ensure no outliers). Not sure where the “modeling is based on the best version of Princeton†thing got started.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 08:49 PM - Post#247484
In response to SomeGuy
There was a recent discussion about this topic. Some models like KenPom begin with baked-in preseason weights based on the previous year and expectations for the coming year.
At this point in the season, IMHO that stuff just needs to be thrown out and adjustments made. Princeton was a preseason pick by some to finish first in the Ivies, but guess what--it aint happening.
If Princeton does not sweep this coming weekend at Brown and Yale, at best it will be fighting for its life from behind to even make the 4th seed.
Edited by penn nation on 02-11-18 08:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 09:42 PM - Post#247491
In response to penn nation
Okay - gotcha. Yeah, the modeling is using the numbers you’re asking for, not the Princeton pre-season expectation or any other overly ambitious estimation of Princeton.
Princeton doesn’t HAVE to sweep, but I’d suggest beating Columbia out of the two. Columbia might get Harvard when it *really* doesn’t matter, snagging a tiebreak clinching sweep.
Princeton should be able to split the road weekends and sweep the home weekend and make the Ivy Tourney. Just needs to beat the right teams.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 09:55 PM - Post#247493
In response to penn nation
While a sweep gives more breathing room, it looks like the most likely scenario right now is that 7-7 gets you in for sure, and 6-8 has a decent shot at the 4th spot. If one of the 4-4 and 3-5 gets hot and pulls out a record over .500, that only increases the chances that 6-8 is 4th place. So I think Princeton needs a split, and could survive a sweep.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 10:02 PM - Post#247494
In response to SomeGuy
I made the mistake of thinking they were playing Brown and Yale this weekend.
So yeah, for this weekend they are still in the hunt with a split. But boy will they be rooting for Penn (!).
The Columbia game I agree is more crucial for Princeton to win. That's because Columbia currently holds the second tie breaker (win over H) if C and Pr end up splitting head to head.
Edited by penn nation on 02-11-18 10:09 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-11-18 11:09 PM - Post#247499
In response to palestra38
For once I agree with Chip -- cancel it now. Or better, just name the regular season Champ as our NCAA entry. Then, we can have the damn tournament for the NIT slot. If the NIT doesn't bite, the winner gets a pretty trophy and free pizza. 
Ironically, the P's have traded places from last season. Penn and Harvard are presently the class of the League. Even if my Tigers somehow rebound, make the tourney and pull a couple of upsets, I still feel that it would be an injustice to the real champ to deny it the NCAA bid.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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02-11-18 11:11 PM - Post#247500
In response to penn nation
None of this matters if the Tigers don't snap out of their funk. They've been Jekyll and Hyde this year. Reminds me of the inconsistent EnigmaLions Kyle Smith put out there a few times.
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