palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-07-18 04:56 PM - Post#246800
In response to mrjames
Where to? I can't believe they will pay to play it in a privately owned arena. And will they really play it at any of the band boxes?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-18 05:43 PM - Post#246815
In response to mrjames
I heard it is 50/50 staying vs moving.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-18 08:03 PM - Post#246835
In response to PennFan10
I need to check back in. As far as I understood it, there was a desire to move it this season for competitive reasons, it needed to wait a year to execute it at a new venue. Was told that’s why branding things like PathToThePalestra started to change.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-18 10:37 PM - Post#246861
In response to mrjames
Could definitely still end up being the path.
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Big R&B Truth
Masters Student
Posts: 427
Loc: Back Waters of New Englan...
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-10-18 12:04 AM - Post#247192
In response to PennFan10
Yup, let's go back to having no tournament and having most of the Ivy League's games in February being totally meaningless again. It's a great way to attract talent into the league.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-10-18 12:33 AM - Post#247196
In response to Big R&B Truth
I'd love to know how many players have committed to the league or been pushed over the edge thanks to the promise of a tournament. We're certainly not seeing it this year, but I guess the good freshman class was really the first opportunity to see it used (unless there were late 2016 commits).
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-10-18 12:41 AM - Post#247199
In response to Quakers03
Listen to James Jones on Ivyhoopsonline. He says the IL tourney is a huge boost to recruiting.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 07:09 PM - Post#247474
In response to penn nation
Where are the sims? Twitter? Where do I go?
When I look at it unscientifically, it looks possible for 7-7 to even be 3rd place. I don’t pay for pomeroy, but eyeballing the rankings it looks like only Yale would be “expected†to get to .500. Penn and Harvard miss-stepping against someone other than the teams in shouting distance in pomeroy obviously could increase the wins of teams 3-4. But it looks to me like a very strong possibility that 5 teams are playing for 2 spots the last weekend, which I think would be great (again).
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-11-18 07:28 PM - Post#247476
In response to SomeGuy
https://twitter.com/ivybball?lang=en
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-11-18 07:46 PM - Post#247477
In response to mrjames
I said it before this weekend's games, and I'll say it again--the sims are overestimating Princeton's chances.
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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02-11-18 08:04 PM - Post#247478
In response to penn nation
Which is the real Princeton team? The one that swept Cornell/Columbia by a combined 53 points in January, or the one that lost by double digits to Penn, Harvard, and Dartmouth in the last week? Will the December/January version return for the stretch run?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-11-18 08:18 PM - Post#247479
In response to penn nation
Maybe, but despite how it looks the last few games, this run is not inconceivable for the “better†team. At 180 Pomeroy, getting swept by Penn is a reasonable outcome. So his losing the Harvard/Dartmouth road swing, where they would be expected to lose to Harvard and expected to win a tight one at DC. This is still the same Princeton team that smoked Columbia and Cornell while we were struggling mightily. If the Ps play the same way they did that weekend, Princeton will sweep on the road, and we will get swept. 7-7 will likely get them in, so they need to go 4-2. Seems very doable to me.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-11-18 08:23 PM - Post#247480
In response to SomeGuy
Anything is possible, of course. The whole enterprise is probabilistic and as a trained social scientist I get it.
But the modeling was predicated on the "best" version of Princeton moving forward. I found that problematic after three troubling Princeton home games, and one would think that after two more subpar performances (on the road) the initial modeling assumptions should be tweaked.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-11-18 08:34 PM - Post#247482
In response to penn nation
Did the modeling presume Princeton would be what they were that C’s weekend? I thought it was looking at the season as a whole, with even some offseason presumptions based on last year baked in. It seems to me that is the right approach— we can’t assume either this past week or the C’s weekend define the team. All of these results are more information as to the range of possible outcomes for them.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-11-18 08:41 PM - Post#247483
In response to SomeGuy
Correct. The modeling is based on season long inputs (I pull in from a variety of sources - CBBRef, Bart Torvik, KenPom, etc - to ensure no outliers). Not sure where the “modeling is based on the best version of Princeton†thing got started.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 08:49 PM - Post#247484
In response to SomeGuy
There was a recent discussion about this topic. Some models like KenPom begin with baked-in preseason weights based on the previous year and expectations for the coming year.
At this point in the season, IMHO that stuff just needs to be thrown out and adjustments made. Princeton was a preseason pick by some to finish first in the Ivies, but guess what--it aint happening.
If Princeton does not sweep this coming weekend at Brown and Yale, at best it will be fighting for its life from behind to even make the 4th seed.
Edited by penn nation on 02-11-18 08:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 09:42 PM - Post#247491
In response to penn nation
Okay - gotcha. Yeah, the modeling is using the numbers you’re asking for, not the Princeton pre-season expectation or any other overly ambitious estimation of Princeton.
Princeton doesn’t HAVE to sweep, but I’d suggest beating Columbia out of the two. Columbia might get Harvard when it *really* doesn’t matter, snagging a tiebreak clinching sweep.
Princeton should be able to split the road weekends and sweep the home weekend and make the Ivy Tourney. Just needs to beat the right teams.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 09:55 PM - Post#247493
In response to penn nation
While a sweep gives more breathing room, it looks like the most likely scenario right now is that 7-7 gets you in for sure, and 6-8 has a decent shot at the 4th spot. If one of the 4-4 and 3-5 gets hot and pulls out a record over .500, that only increases the chances that 6-8 is 4th place. So I think Princeton needs a split, and could survive a sweep.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Cancel the Ivy Tournament
02-11-18 10:02 PM - Post#247494
In response to SomeGuy
I made the mistake of thinking they were playing Brown and Yale this weekend.
So yeah, for this weekend they are still in the hunt with a split. But boy will they be rooting for Penn (!).
The Columbia game I agree is more crucial for Princeton to win. That's because Columbia currently holds the second tie breaker (win over H) if C and Pr end up splitting head to head.
Edited by penn nation on 02-11-18 10:09 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-11-18 11:09 PM - Post#247499
In response to palestra38
For once I agree with Chip -- cancel it now. Or better, just name the regular season Champ as our NCAA entry. Then, we can have the damn tournament for the NIT slot. If the NIT doesn't bite, the winner gets a pretty trophy and free pizza. 
Ironically, the P's have traded places from last season. Penn and Harvard are presently the class of the League. Even if my Tigers somehow rebound, make the tourney and pull a couple of upsets, I still feel that it would be an injustice to the real champ to deny it the NCAA bid.
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