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Username Post: State of the team?        (Topic#21122)
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1767

Reg: 02-15-15
02-21-18 01:46 PM - Post#248794    
    In response to hoops123

Don't worry, your posts are pretty far down my priority list at this point. My point is you don't have to attack someone because you don't like what they say.

By the way, Mark Few (among many others-Tom Crean, Bruce Weber, Roy Williams) didn't play the game in college and he seems to be doing alright. I don't believe playing/coaching necessarily gives anyone a superior perspective. As far as me, I am pretty comfortable with my own experience and resume to give my opinion.

EB was a great player (and will do just fine at Xavier) and he is gone in part because he threw his rattle out of the crib after he wasn't respected by his teammates enough to be voted captain. I am sure he was also feeling disrespected after not being voted to the 1st team last year (which was a huge joke most of us agree). Kudos for Mclaughlin to stick to his guns and not over rule it.

 
somedartmouthstudent2 
Freshman
Posts: 19

Age: 22
Reg: 02-21-18
State of the team?
02-21-18 03:16 PM - Post#248799    
    In response to PennFan10

Apparently I have missed a ton since forgetting my password and these boards have gone insane. There is more to unpack than I could ever imagine, but I'll do my best.

I figured I'd try and ride this out, buy my opinion is that everyone here is wrong, or at least partially wrong. I think the state of the team is mediocre- we are losing a lot, and not getting a ton of leadership from our seniors. Close games are great, but lets be quite honest- the league sucks this year.

This brings me to my second point- somehow over the course of 12 months we've jumped on the team is better without Boudreaux bandwagon. Evidently, the Dartmouth fan base (all 5 of us) has become delusional. One. I am sick of talking about Boudreaux, he was a fantastic player but hes not on the team anymore. We would have unequivocally won more games this year with him around, especially when the league looks this bad. Now i will proceed to launch in my rebuttals and hopefully this will be the last post where I have to type his name. I wish him all the best, but on to the next one.

I'll start with MikeJames' post since that was the first one I read that drove me to recreate my account. Right off the bat, calling Boudreaux's defense garbage is suspect and uncalled for. His freshman year defensive rating was solid, and only slightly dipped last year. Aside from that, to suggest that he would have eaten minutes from contributors is asinine. Boudreaux played the 3,4 or 5, I see no reason why the players that have been mentioned (Knight, Emery, Jackson) wouldnt be playing. We were, and still are, starved for talent and if Mclaughlin is a good coach he would put the best players on the floor. As far as playing team ball, do you think Boudreaux's usage percentage would be that high if he had even a modicum of talent around him? I don't. Thank god we had some freshman show up with talent and have had some development with our sophomores. The last two years we didn't even have a second option, so to suggest the improvement is anything but maturation and development is crazy.

Now we can move on to SomeGuy and PennFan. I had a long post on efficiency ratings last year, where Boudreaux was the the most efficient player on the roster even with his high usage (even if that didnt stack up to regular efficiency, it shows how bad we were). End of story. Now we have improved with our younger classes, but have still taken a step back (even if its not as far as we had thought.) As far as contributions at X, he has two years there and has shown he can score against top level competition. Defense might be a question in the Big East, but I have no doubt that coaching staff can fix stuff like that. It wouldnt suprise me in the slightest to see him as a 6th man, or starting player by the time he wraps up at X.

Finally, I'd love to address the conjecture from PennFan. I've worked with the team throughout my on/off tenure at Dartmouth. I graduate this year and have seen the ins and outs of the program. Boudreaux had the respect of his team. I'm fairly certain the coaches just went with the senior leadership (who up to this point seemingly dont contribute.) I can't speak for what happened after the fact, but I do know that Boudreaux was close with many of the guys and it was a tough decision.

Wrapping it up- it's good to see activity on here. I would hope that at the end of the day, everyone respects the opinions stated and thats that. As much as Hoops123 has stated he is a coach, there is no one on here that knows so much about basketball that they are always right. Everyone like to talk about what-ifs and what could have been. I'm happy to lay it out as it is.

TLDR; 1. Stop talking about Boudreaux, that Saga is done with. Lets all wish him luck and leave it at that. 2. We suck. I don't care how many close games we have, or awful teams we beat. We do not look good in any of our games. 3. The league as a whole looks terrible this year, so please use that to weigh your expectations of the future. 4. The future is brighter than it may seem. We will be done with the senior/junior class shortly enough and hopefully the young guys continue to develop. That i can be optimistic about.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 04:56 PM - Post#248805    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

The league stinks at the top. The bottom of the league is stronger though. Right now, Dartmouth is touch and go for being the best worst Ivy team in Pomeroy history, if that makes sense.

I’ll try to leave the Boudreaux thing alone after your thoughtful post, which I think made some very good points. Team dynamics are complex, and you can see that in posts from people allegedly in the know who have diametrically opposed takes on his relationship with his teammates. Truth is probably somewhere in between.

Not sure i’d want hoops123 on my team, but i’m pretty sure he wouldn’t want a stats nerd playing with him anyway. And I play garbage defense.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 05:37 PM - Post#248810    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

I know we've been through this before, but when I was doing my All-Ivy sweep to get a sense of where the different staffs were leaning, it became clear that Boudreaux wasn't a lock for the 1st team as many expected because of his defense and the fact that he couldn't make his team better. Those were real concerns. It's the same reason that when Evan left the team shortly before the season started, the sentiment I heard was that Dartmouth might be better for it.

Objectively, Dartmouth has been better this year. And objectively, many of the same players for Dartmouth, year over year, have been better this season. Whether or not those players improved in spite of losing Boudreaux or because of the departure is open for debate. That being said, normally when teams in this league suddenly lose All-Ivy first team talents, they get worse (usually a lot worse). Dartmouth got better.

 
Go Green 
Masters Student
Posts: 409

Age: 47
Reg: 04-22-10
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 06:30 PM - Post#248821    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
Dartmouth got better.



I don't know what metric you're using for this judgment.

But it ain't our W-L record.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 06:36 PM - Post#248822    
    In response to Go Green

I've got Dartmouth at 275 in KenPom and 263rd at Bart Torvik's site versus 305 and 304, respectively, last season. At both sites, as well, the improvement has been balanced on both the offensive and defensive sides.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1767

Reg: 02-15-15
02-21-18 07:05 PM - Post#248826    
    In response to mrjames

But Mike that’s just your stupid opinion right?

 
somedartmouthstudent2 
Freshman
Posts: 19

Age: 22
Reg: 02-21-18
State of the team?
02-21-18 07:10 PM - Post#248827    
    In response to mrjames

I don't necessarily think you understand the point I'm making. The last two years there hasn't been much to make better. I honestly dont think there is a player in the ivy league that you could put on the Dartmouth team over the last two years that could have made them better in the absence of the player that left.

Regardless of my opinion of he who shall not be named not making 1st team (he should be in) you fail to account for improvement among returning players and a recruiting class that ended up being Mclaughlins first.

It's like beating a dead horse, but Dartmouth isnt better because he left. The take that Dartmouth is in a better position because players have improved and the freshman are more talented than past classes is way more feasible (it certainly isn't upper class-men leadership) You cant tell me that if this player had stayed, with an improvement of talent around him, Dartmouth would not be making the Ivy League tournament. In fact, I remember a post in the not to distant future that if we added a solid interior player and perhaps a guard we would be contending for a top 3 spot. Looks like we've managed half of that, and I believe if that player was here we would be in a tremendously better spot.

Let's wait until the season is over, but its a moot point. If Dartmouth loses out, (and lets hope they wont) I imagine they will have a ranking near or below where they were last year. At the end of the day success is success and we aren't heading to the Palestra anytime soon other than to give Penn a nice scrimmage .

Edited by somedartmouthstudent2 on 02-21-18 07:12 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
somedartmouthstudent2 
Freshman
Posts: 19

Age: 22
Reg: 02-21-18
State of the team?
02-21-18 07:15 PM - Post#248829    
    In response to PennFan10

Lets not play around here. I have all the respect in the world for MikeJames, but stats and their interpretations are very different things.

I think it is valid to question someones interpretation of a metric, stat, or methodology.

Condemning those tools as not useful, however, is counterproductive.

Edited by somedartmouthstudent2 on 02-21-18 07:17 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1767

Reg: 02-15-15
02-21-18 08:07 PM - Post#248834    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

I do think there is some confusion when mike says on the one hand that all ivy awards are largely based on offensive production and then to say EB didn’t get it because he wasn’t any good on defense. I don’t see how it can be both.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 08:17 PM - Post#248836    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

Well, not provable, obviously, but I don’t think it’s true that no one player could improve Dartmouth as much as Boudreaux. I don’t think Dartmouth’s talent level is any worse than Cornell, for example. If you put Matt Morgan on Dartmouth, I think he would have an immediate impact that would be greater than Boudreaux. Morgan has been a high ORAT, high usage guy no matter what — even with nothing at all around him. And his box score metrics have been positive every year. In other words, when he is on the floor, Cornell has a chance, and when he isn’t, they lose horrifically. Boudreaux ‘s boxscore metrics were negative both years. It may not be Boudreaux’s fault, but there are other guys in the league who elevate their teams even with nothing around them.

Morgan is an easy example because he plays on a similar team in terms of talent. AJ Brodeur and Chris Lewis are harder to argue because they play with more talent, but I would argue that Dartmouth would immediately be a top 200 team with either guy. Penn was pretty much where Dartmouth is in pomeroy before Brodeur walked in the door.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 08:21 PM - Post#248837    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

Also, why the lack of love for the seniors? Wright and Johnson are a big reason why the team is a little better this year. I don’t know if it is true that they are better because Boudreaux isn’t around (in a sense that would seem strange, but it sometimes has looked to me like Boudreaux and Wright weren’t a stylistic fit for whatever reason). Particularly since both played better as sophs than they did as juniors. But unquestionably both have played much, much better this year than last.

 
somedartmouthstudent2 
Freshman
Posts: 19

Age: 22
Reg: 02-21-18
02-21-18 09:38 PM - Post#248847    
    In response to SomeGuy

I think we are going to have to disagree and call it that at that. The player we aren't supposed to be talking about, IMO was the best player in the league averaged out over his first two years. I think Matt Morgan would fail miserably on Dartmouths team, as I believe he has a better supporting cast and coaching staff. There are no teams quite as bad as Dartmouth so that argument doesnt exactly work.

I respect the opinion, but the guy who left dominated AJ and Chris Lewis when he played them . But like you said not provable. I just vehemently disagree.

Now for the seniors. I like them as people. They are high character guys. They are not basketball players. For four years they have been pretty awful, and I don't know what resurgence you are talking about, but you clearly haven't been watching the same games, or practices, that I have. Wright plays no defense, gambles on steals, and ghosts in and out of an offense that he should be the focal point of. Johnson is a turnover machine, hot headed, and doesnt have the greatest basketball IQ. I wish Cam Smith would get in more as he really competes in practices and I thought he would contribute quite a bit this year.



 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
State of the team?
02-21-18 10:02 PM - Post#248849    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

But why do you think no teams are as bad as Dartmouth? We can see, statistically, how Dartmouth plays without Boudreaux, and how Cornell plays without Morgan. Cornell is actually net positive with Morgan on the floor every year. They are about the same as Dartmouth without him. Dartmouth was actually more net negative last year with Boudreaux than any other player in the top 7 in minutes. If you look at Penn last year, everyone was net negative except Brodeur, Betley, and Howard. And when Brodeur was in, they were WAY positive. Speith for Brown and Petrasek for Columbia were the same — guys whose teams looked like Dartmouth without them on the floor, but were something more just with them. Take any of these guys away, and the teams all looked like Dartmouth last year.

Edited by SomeGuy on 02-21-18 10:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-21-18 10:15 PM - Post#248852    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

On the seniors, again, Dartmouth plays close to even when either of them is on the floor. Both have ORATs above 105. Only Barry has a higher ORAT (well, Jackson too in a ancillary role). Everyone else, Dartmouth is significantly negative when they play. Yes, Johnson turns it over too much. Yes, the defense isn’t good enough, but i’m not sure either guy is any more at fault than anyone else there.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-21-18 10:39 PM - Post#248856    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

Finally, on the domination thing, I respectfully disagree. Hard for me to see how Lewis was dominated when his team won both games going away, in one of the games he shot 7 of 8 and scored 14 to Boudreaux’s 15 while playing 12 fewer minutes, and in the other Dartmouth couldn’t score when Lewis was in.

Against Penn, Dartmouth did manage to win both games, but if I remember correctly AJ wasn’t guarding Boudreaux (don’t recall how Dartmouth guarded AJ). Boudreaux had better offensive numbers than AJ, if that is what you mean by dominating, but he didn’t really go off in either game.

This is kind of beside the point, but as we’ve seen in stretches this year, i think Brodeur could average 17-20 points per game if the goal was just to get him his points. Penn could sit Rothschild, give AJ more room to operate inside (or drag a big to the perimeter), and make AJ look like Boudreaux did last year. However, Penn would give it all back and more on the defensive end without Rothschild, and would be more predictable on offense and in a sense easier to defend overall. But AJ would look even better.

 
Go Green 
Masters Student
Posts: 409

Age: 47
Reg: 04-22-10
Re: State of the team?
02-21-18 11:15 PM - Post#248857    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
I've got Dartmouth at 275 in KenPom and 263rd at Bart Torvik's site versus 305 and 304, respectively, last season. At both sites, as well, the improvement has been balanced on both the offensive and defensive sides.



Ah yes! Nothing better than putting your arms around your teammates and singing the alma mater and then headed to the frat parties to celebrate a hard fought rise in the KenPom and Bart Torik's rankings!



 
somedartmouthstudent2 
Freshman
Posts: 19

Age: 22
Reg: 02-21-18
02-22-18 12:16 AM - Post#248865    
    In response to Go Green

I think we will just chalk this one up to a little bias and call it a day. Aj was guarded by the guy who left in both occasions, but who cares.

We use different stats, I place more value on PER and the guy who left spent his whole career in the top 5. Best rebounder in the league by a large margin. Irreplaceable all around.

We will just have to agree to disagree. The kid was highly recruited for a reason, is going to Xavier for a reason. He balls out- and better than the rest of the conference (usually).

Side note. Don't we all play for the KenPom ranking?

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-22-18 07:43 AM - Post#248869    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

Yes, and I know I use “efficiency” in referencing ORAT, which is imprecise and suggests PER, which I don’t really focus on.

On Boudreaux’s rebounding, as with the scoring, it’s a team game. What matters is how many rebounds the team gets. The raw difference without him has been slightly more than a rebound per game — instead of barely out rebounding opponents (last year) Dartmouth barely gets outrebounded (this year). That suggests that Boudreaux was essentially battling his teammates for rebounds rather than getting ones that the other team was going to get. Now a bunch of guys get 3-5 per game, instead of one guy getting 9.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
State of the team?
02-22-18 08:54 AM - Post#248874    
    In response to somedartmouthstudent2

Also, in regard to PER, was the guy who left ever actually top five? Looks to me like he was 8th as a freshman and 10th as a sophomore. And behind Matt Morgan both years, and behind AJ Brodeur last year (as well as Speith and Petrasek).

Also, returning to rebounding for a moment, in conference this year Dartmouth has the best margin in the league and is nexk and neck with Harvard. Last year they were middle of the pack with the guy who left.

Edited by SomeGuy on 02-22-18 08:59 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
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