penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
|
02-08-18 11:55 AM - Post#246909
In response to palestra38
We needed to go at least 1-2 this week to have good standing for the IL tourney, and 2-1 for the #1 seed.
If we go 3-0...well, we'll have already eliminated Dartmouth from #1 seed contention. Even 2-1 if Dartmouth gets swept this weekend. 
I expect a split this weekend, in part because there is some unfinished business with Dartmouth.
|
10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-08-18 04:47 PM - Post#246920
In response to penn nation
Yes, the all important #1 seed. How far we've fallen since the days of the 14 game tournament. Now we'll be happy with 2-1 because of the #1 seed.
Let's win them all! Let's go Penn!
|
penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
|
02-08-18 04:55 PM - Post#246922
In response to 10Q
It's really winning the regular season that I care about--I'm using #1 seed as shorthand. Getting a guaranteed postseason appearance would be major cool and would save us some grief if we lost in the IL tourney.
|
10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-08-18 04:57 PM - Post#246923
In response to penn nation
It would soften the blow a bit, but if we finish #1 and don't get to dance, I'm going to be devastating. No tiny dancing for me.
|
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
|
02-08-18 05:05 PM - Post#246924
In response to 10Q
No tiny dancing for me.
A shame. You'll be missing something.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%9399_ Prin...
|
Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4471
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
|
02-08-18 05:05 PM - Post#246925
In response to 10Q
Penn is -6 vs Dartmouth. We should be able to cover, yes?
Other Ivy League spreads:
Harvard - 3 vs Princeton
Brown - 5 1/2 vs Cornell
Yale - 4 1/2 vs Columbia
|
penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
|
02-08-18 05:10 PM - Post#246927
In response to Go Green
Talk about burying the lede. That piece does not even acknowledge that Penn came back to administer the largest Jadwin whooping of Princeton ever in the season finale which clinched the Ivy title for the Quakers.
|
LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-08-18 05:47 PM - Post#246930
In response to yoyo
when are we going to see Sam Jones light it up again?
Next year's alumni game?
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
|
Dartmouth
02-08-18 05:56 PM - Post#246931
In response to LyleGold
While a sweep would be great, it may be difficult with the Harvard game at 4:00 pm on Saturday. Count me in with those that feel that Friday's game at Dartmouth is the more important one, in the big picture. Besides, Penn has not won in Hanover since 2/16/13 and it would be a big morale boost for the program to eliminate another losing streak.
In addition to being without Evan Boudreaux (leaving program) and Guillien Smith (injury), Dartmouth has started slowly and fallen behind by double digits in each league game. They have done a very good job in the second half of each game to get close, but they have not been able to close out any game. They have lost 4 games by 5 points or less and all 6 by 10 or less. With 5 of their 6 losses on the road, some of those results may have turned out differently if they were playing at home.
There is no exclusive player who is stepping up for Dartmouth in the 2nd half of these games. Wright (17 vs Columbia, 16 vs Harvard #1), Johnson (19 vs Cornell, 9 vs Yale), Emery (17 vs Brown), Barry (10 vs Harvard #2) and Knight (10 vs Harvard #2) have all led the team in second half scoring during league games.
Comparing their two halves, they are averaging 12.4 more points in the second half (25.8 to 38.2).
In terms of made baskets, that difference consists of + 1.8 for 2PT, + 0.8 for 3PT and +6.2 for FT.
Dartmouth's opponents are averaging 1.0 less points in the second half (34.7 to 33.7).
In terms of made baskets, that difference consists of -4.5 for 2PT, +0.5 for 3PT and +6.5 for FT.
Compairing Penn's two halves, they are averaging 2.2 more points in the second half (36.0 to 38.2).
In terms of made baskets, the difference consists of +1.0 for 2PT, -0.8 for 3PT, and +2.7 for FT.
Penn's oppoents are averaging 5.9 more points in the second half (30.3 to 36.2).
In terms of made baskets, that difference consists of +2.5 for 2PT, -0.5 for 3PT and +2.3 for FT.
Looking at these numbers, Penn does a good job on the offensive and defensive end in the first half, while Dartmouth starts out cold on both ends. In the second half, Penn's offense is still good, but its defense slips a bit. Meanwhile, Dartmouth heats up on offense and gets a little better on defense. If these numbers hold up tomorrow night and Dartmouth starts out cold again, then the Quakers hopefully have a big enough cushion to withstand a second half Dartmouth comeback. No matter whether they try and improve from two (like the Cornell game) or three (like the Columbia game), a major key will be keeping the Big Green off the FT line. Offensively, if Penn is not hot from three, they will need to be aggressive on the inside to get some easy two pointers or get to the FT line.
If Dartmouth manages to compete in the first half, things may be much more difficult.
Edited by rbg on 02-08-18 05:58 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-08-18 09:05 PM - Post#246935
In response to LyleGold
when are we going to see Sam Jones light it up again?
Next year's alumni game?
well played, Lyle.
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-08-18 09:10 PM - Post#246936
In response to Cvonvorys
Penn is -6 vs Dartmouth. We should be able to cover, yes?
Other Ivy League spreads:
Harvard - 3 vs Princeton
Brown - 5 1/2 vs Cornell
Yale - 4 1/2 vs Columbia
"should" is the operative word. We get the right guys to the line down the stretch and we cover easily.
Brown should cover easily.
PU will have problems with Harvard for the same reason they don't match up well with us, but PU is desperate at this point and will cover if they shoot well at all.
Yale-Columbia? Stay away.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-08-18 09:22 PM - Post#246938
In response to Cvonvorys
I think we are still a ways from not needing to worry about any league road game. If you believe Pomeroy (and I do), Penn isn't that much better than last year, and Dartmouth isn't any worse than they were last year. And we lost to them both times last year, the second time at home with our season seemingly on the line. So I don't view this as a game where we should cover. It's a game where we could, and I hope we do. But there is also a reasonable chance we lose.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-08-18 09:35 PM - Post#246939
In response to SomeGuy
How on earth can you believe we are not much better than last year? Just because Pomeroy gives us a number? My goodness, what will it take? There is no chance we would have won all the league games last year that we have won this year (and we didn't). We were far far worse defensively, didn't move the ball as well and shot worse, at least in league play. It's not as though we have been lucky to win 6 straight.
But I suppose we'll really see something this weekend. I agree that nothing is certain and we must beat Dartmouth. But as I see it, the combination of Max, Antonio and Wood have more than made up for the loss of Howard and we don't have to play guards who aren't ready (or never will be ready) to play at this level.
|
Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
|
02-09-18 02:43 AM - Post#246943
In response to palestra38
How on earth can you believe we are not much better than last year? Just because Pomeroy gives us a number? My goodness, what will it take? There is no chance we would have won all the league games last year that we have won this year (and we didn't). We were far far worse defensively, didn't move the ball as well and shot worse, at least in league play. It's not as though we have been lucky to win 6 straight.
But I suppose we'll really see something this weekend. I agree that nothing is certain and we must beat Dartmouth. But as I see it, the combination of Max, Antonio and Wood have more than made up for the loss of Howard and we don't have to play guards who aren't ready (or never will be ready) to play at this level.
If the team needs to play like they're 0-6 to win, then maybe we shouldn't act like we're 14-0?
|
Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-09-18 03:10 AM - Post#246944
In response to Penndemonium
It's not as though we have been lucky to win 6 straight.
We have been incredibly lucky to win 6 straight, given that 5 were by single digits at home.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-09-18 07:20 AM - Post#246945
In response to Chip Bayers
Exactly. And we were extremely unlucky to start 0-6 last year. These teams aren’t statistically very different overall (though as we’ve discussed there are some different strengths). The level of competition has been much lower. Obviously we’ve had a knack for winning close games, and Dartmouth a knack for losing them. Whether that is more luck or skill, eventually they are going to win a close one and we are going to lose a close one. And the way both teams have played (except for Tuesday) strongly suggests the game will be close.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-09-18 09:03 AM - Post#246947
In response to SomeGuy
You simply cannot say that a single digit victory is "luck." Of our 6 Ivy games, only Brown was a lucky win. The others we were the better team.
Nonetheless, this is not a worthy argument, since we are 6-0 and 16-6, compared with 0-6 and an eventual 13-15. It doesn't matter if it is luck or we are better. I am sure if you asked the team they would say the latter, but we all can agree that we have to beat Dartmouth, or the work to get to 6-0 may be compromised.
|
10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-09-18 09:25 AM - Post#246949
In response to palestra38
Didn't we just blow out, BLOW OUT, Princeton at Jadwyn? Excuse me. This is a great Penn team until proven otherwise.
|
TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
|
02-09-18 09:53 AM - Post#246955
In response to 10Q
The numbers are a useful predictive measure. And I love the numbers.
But at the end of the day the Ivy season champion is given to the team that wins the most games. And flags fly forever. And there are no asterisks for winning the league with a lower KP number than is usual.
Now go out and win tonight.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-09-18 10:41 AM - Post#246960
In response to palestra38
I would not say that an individual single digit victory is luck. I would say that, in a series of single digit games, it is lucky to win all 5. And over time the numbers support that — teams that win by fewer points win less than teams that win by more points.
I don’t think that there is any question that Penn has played the best basketball in the league thus far this year. That is true both over the course of the season as a whole, and over the 6 Ivy games thus far. I am absolutely thrilled that is the case. But there is some luck involved in what our Ivy record is, and there is good timing involved to boot — if we hold where we are in pomeroy and win the league, we will be the lowest ranked league champ since, well, I think since pomeroy started. The fact that the league doesn’t have any top 100 teams is a big factor in what our record is.
|
