SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-09-18 10:44 AM - Post#246962
In response to SomeGuy
More importantly, I implore you all to stop making these statements about how good we are. I have to put a lot of effort into reversing the jinx.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-09-18 10:44 AM - Post#246963
In response to SomeGuy
And that's the reason to go out and win tonight.
There are no games this team can take for granted.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 10:46 AM - Post#246965
In response to SomeGuy
Yes, but you have to look at the context of the single digit victories---we simply are not a high powered offense (although our recent games suggest that we are trending upward). We controlled all of these games except for Brown through the second half of each one. I think it's obvious that if you blow out all your opponents, you are a better team, but last year, we lost games that we are winning this year. Granted, road games remain, but we have played well on the road this year out of league. So I think it's a combination of the League being down and Penn being up.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4438
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-09-18 10:55 AM - Post#246967
In response to palestra38
Typically, the better team (and/or the better coached team) wins the game. So far in this Ivy League schedule, when Penn needed a stop or needed a basket, they got it. Over the course of a 40-minute game, one less 3-pointer by one team and one additional 3-pointer for the other team is a 6-point swing. Sometimes that stop or basket happens earlier in the game, for example that nice run that Penn went on right after Princeton took their first lead of the game.
In other words, in my opinion Penn has not been lucky in getting out to a 6-0 start, but that opinion might change after the next 8 games, starting tonight vs. Dartmouth.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-09-18 11:31 AM - Post#246970
In response to Cvonvorys
Colin, you raise a good and perhaps overlooked point. Donahue has been real good at pushing the right buttons at the right times. This year has a totally different feel than the good Rosen year.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 11:43 AM - Post#246975
In response to Cvonvorys
FWIW, based on current league play efficiency margins, Penn definitely deserves to be No. 1 based on its Ivy play thus far:
PENN +0.12 points per possession
PRIN +0.08
HARV +0.05
COLU +0.03
YALE +0.00
BRWN -0.03
DART -0.08
CORN -0.17
Then, if you adjust for what the teams have remaining on their schedule (to correct for an easier/harder schedule thus far), you still see a somewhat similar ranking:
PENN +0.09
HARV +0.05
PRIN +0.05
COLU +0.02
YALE +0.01
BRWN -0.02
DART -0.06
CORN -0.17
To the extent that luck equals (to me) the difference between actual wins and the derived win expectation, then of course Penn has been lucky to get to 6-0. But the Quakers haven't been lucky to be in first. They are the best team in league play efficiency margin nearing the halfway pole, so they should be in the spot they're in.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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02-09-18 11:47 AM - Post#246977
In response to Penndemonium
How on earth can you believe we are not much better than last year? Just because Pomeroy gives us a number? My goodness, what will it take? There is no chance we would have won all the league games last year that we have won this year (and we didn't). We were far far worse defensively, didn't move the ball as well and shot worse, at least in league play. It's not as though we have been lucky to win 6 straight.
But I suppose we'll really see something this weekend. I agree that nothing is certain and we must beat Dartmouth. But as I see it, the combination of Max, Antonio and Wood have more than made up for the loss of Howard and we don't have to play guards who aren't ready (or never will be ready) to play at this level.
If the team needs to play like they're 0-6 to win, then maybe we shouldn't act like we're 14-0?
I don't think that is in any way indicative of the mindset of the players or the coaching staff. It might reflect that of certain elements of the fan base, but fortunately said fan base will have no impact on the outcome of the games.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23199
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 11:56 AM - Post#246978
In response to weinhauers_ghost
We are overthinking. That’s what we are best at.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 12:03 PM - Post#246980
In response to mrjames
Thank you for providing data that backs up my sense that Columbia is most likely to be the last team in the Ivy 4. At least at the moment. Keeping an eye on Brown though. The Lions have a huge opportunity this weekend.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 12:09 PM - Post#246982
In response to Streamers
Princeton, of course, is by no means a sure thing at this point. Having lost 2 home games in a row, they have to play 6 of their 8 remaining games on the road , in which they play both Columbia and Brown.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-09-18 12:37 PM - Post#246984
In response to palestra38
This conversation reminds me of that bit of wisdom coaches like to spout about a team that's turning around: it goes from losing big, to losing close, to winning close, to winning big. If this model is actually correct (and who the hell really knows), then Penn has clearly transitioned from losing close mode (last season) to winning close mode (this season).
I watched a lot of the games last season and have seen many of the team's games this season as well. Last season, when things got dicey, the players seemed to lose confidence, and were unable to make big plays. This season they have consistently gotten stops and scores when they needed to. I don't think their record is entirely attributable to luck and lousy opposition. The players are more poised this year, and are making good decisions in high pressure situations. I realize that this factor is difficult to quantify, but that doesn't make it nonexistent.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4350
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 12:45 PM - Post#246987
In response to palestra38
Good teams win their share of close games. While "luck" is always a factor, good teams seem to find a way to create their own luck.
The expectation for this team should be that all our games will be close. The last one was an outlier.
If one is going to write off a single digit victory as merely a function of luck, maybe Harvard has been lucky that they are 5-1 instead of 2-4 in league play.
We should be favored in both games this weekend. While each may be a challenge, the expectation should not be a split; rather, a sweep. Nor should anyone be shocked if we get upset in one or both of the games. Each remaining league game will take maximum effort to win. So far the effort has been there, the team chemistry has been great - but - you still have to put the ball in the basket enough times to come out on top and that's a game to game proposition.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 01:07 PM - Post#246989
In response to AsiaSunset
If one is going to write off a single digit victory as merely a function of luck, maybe Harvard has been lucky that they are 5-1 instead of 2-4 in league play.
Maybe not 5-1 to 2-4, but certainly, Harvard's actual wins have outpaced expected wins based on manifested efficiency differential in league play, thus far. I could run it to know for sure, but Harvard and Penn are each about a win over expectation thus far. Princeton might be 1+ wins below expectation. Cornell's probably a win or so over expectation and Dartmouth and Yale a win under.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4350
Reg: 11-21-04
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Dartmouth 02-09-18 01:41 PM - Post#246995
In response to mrjames
Mike
My comment wasn't really directed at you, but rather at those discounting single digit wins and, quite frankly, you guys have an OT victory over an 0-6 Dartmouth team, a two point victory over a 2-4 Yale and a 4 point victory over Cornell, each of which could have been chalked up to "luck", as a couple Penn posters have chosen to discount some of our wins.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-09-18 01:44 PM - Post#246998
In response to mrjames
IIRC, though, before last weekend Princeton led this thing by a country mile.
Small sample size, no?
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23199
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 01:52 PM - Post#247003
In response to AsiaSunset
Good teams win their share of close games. While "luck" is always a factor, good teams seem to find a way to create their own luck.
.
Or maybe it's that the team that got lucky is perceived after the fact as good.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth 02-09-18 02:01 PM - Post#247004
In response to AsiaSunset
I know - I agree. Harvard is lucky to be 5-1. If you played them out at the quality they've shown in those six games themselves, they'd probably most frequently 4-2.
As for sample size, for sure it's small. That's why this would never be used for predicting the future. Just being descriptive about what's happened.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4350
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 02:05 PM - Post#247008
In response to 10Q
Maybe - but that usually doesn't translate to 6-0.
For sure almost every team has its day - but except for the occasional totally dominant year, the best Penn teams have prevailed in a few nail biters while ending up on top of the league.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 355
Reg: 03-25-09
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02-09-18 02:49 PM - Post#247011
In response to AsiaSunset
Good teams win close games.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-18 02:51 PM - Post#247012
In response to yoyo
2004 Penn says hi!!!!
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