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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



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Username Post: Dartmouth        (Topic#21126)
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4583

Reg: 11-22-04
02-09-18 10:44 AM - Post#246962    
    In response to SomeGuy

More importantly, I implore you all to stop making these statements about how good we are. I have to put a lot of effort into reversing the jinx.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
02-09-18 10:44 AM - Post#246963    
    In response to SomeGuy

And that's the reason to go out and win tonight.

There are no games this team can take for granted.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18292

Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 10:46 AM - Post#246965    
    In response to SomeGuy

Yes, but you have to look at the context of the single digit victories---we simply are not a high powered offense (although our recent games suggest that we are trending upward). We controlled all of these games except for Brown through the second half of each one. I think it's obvious that if you blow out all your opponents, you are a better team, but last year, we lost games that we are winning this year. Granted, road games remain, but we have played well on the road this year out of league. So I think it's a combination of the League being down and Penn being up.

 
Cvonvorys 
Postdoc
Posts: 2001

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
02-09-18 10:55 AM - Post#246967    
    In response to palestra38

Typically, the better team (and/or the better coached team) wins the game. So far in this Ivy League schedule, when Penn needed a stop or needed a basket, they got it. Over the course of a 40-minute game, one less 3-pointer by one team and one additional 3-pointer for the other team is a 6-point swing. Sometimes that stop or basket happens earlier in the game, for example that nice run that Penn went on right after Princeton took their first lead of the game.

In other words, in my opinion Penn has not been lucky in getting out to a 6-0 start, but that opinion might change after the next 8 games, starting tonight vs. Dartmouth.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
02-09-18 11:31 AM - Post#246970    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Colin, you raise a good and perhaps overlooked point. Donahue has been real good at pushing the right buttons at the right times. This year has a totally different feel than the good Rosen year.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 11:43 AM - Post#246975    
    In response to Cvonvorys

FWIW, based on current league play efficiency margins, Penn definitely deserves to be No. 1 based on its Ivy play thus far:

PENN +0.12 points per possession
PRIN +0.08
HARV +0.05
COLU +0.03
YALE +0.00
BRWN -0.03
DART -0.08
CORN -0.17

Then, if you adjust for what the teams have remaining on their schedule (to correct for an easier/harder schedule thus far), you still see a somewhat similar ranking:

PENN +0.09
HARV +0.05
PRIN +0.05
COLU +0.02
YALE +0.01
BRWN -0.02
DART -0.06
CORN -0.17

To the extent that luck equals (to me) the difference between actual wins and the derived win expectation, then of course Penn has been lucky to get to 6-0. But the Quakers haven't been lucky to be in first. They are the best team in league play efficiency margin nearing the halfway pole, so they should be in the spot they're in.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1022

Age: 58
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
02-09-18 11:47 AM - Post#246977    
    In response to Penndemonium

  • Penndemonium Said:
  • palestra38 Said:
How on earth can you believe we are not much better than last year? Just because Pomeroy gives us a number? My goodness, what will it take? There is no chance we would have won all the league games last year that we have won this year (and we didn't). We were far far worse defensively, didn't move the ball as well and shot worse, at least in league play. It's not as though we have been lucky to win 6 straight.

But I suppose we'll really see something this weekend. I agree that nothing is certain and we must beat Dartmouth. But as I see it, the combination of Max, Antonio and Wood have more than made up for the loss of Howard and we don't have to play guards who aren't ready (or never will be ready) to play at this level.



If the team needs to play like they're 0-6 to win, then maybe we shouldn't act like we're 14-0?




I don't think that is in any way indicative of the mindset of the players or the coaching staff. It might reflect that of certain elements of the fan base, but fortunately said fan base will have no impact on the outcome of the games.


 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14054

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 11:56 AM - Post#246978    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

We are overthinking. That’s what we are best at.

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2338
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 12:03 PM - Post#246980    
    In response to mrjames

Thank you for providing data that backs up my sense that Columbia is most likely to be the last team in the Ivy 4. At least at the moment. Keeping an eye on Brown though. The Lions have a huge opportunity this weekend.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18292

Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 12:09 PM - Post#246982    
    In response to Streamers

Princeton, of course, is by no means a sure thing at this point. Having lost 2 home games in a row, they have to play 6 of their 8 remaining games on the road , in which they play both Columbia and Brown.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3204

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-09-18 12:37 PM - Post#246984    
    In response to palestra38

This conversation reminds me of that bit of wisdom coaches like to spout about a team that's turning around: it goes from losing big, to losing close, to winning close, to winning big. If this model is actually correct (and who the hell really knows), then Penn has clearly transitioned from losing close mode (last season) to winning close mode (this season).

I watched a lot of the games last season and have seen many of the team's games this season as well. Last season, when things got dicey, the players seemed to lose confidence, and were unable to make big plays. This season they have consistently gotten stops and scores when they needed to. I don't think their record is entirely attributable to luck and lousy opposition. The players are more poised this year, and are making good decisions in high pressure situations. I realize that this factor is difficult to quantify, but that doesn't make it nonexistent.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 3855

Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 12:45 PM - Post#246987    
    In response to palestra38

Good teams win their share of close games. While "luck" is always a factor, good teams seem to find a way to create their own luck.

The expectation for this team should be that all our games will be close. The last one was an outlier.

If one is going to write off a single digit victory as merely a function of luck, maybe Harvard has been lucky that they are 5-1 instead of 2-4 in league play.

We should be favored in both games this weekend. While each may be a challenge, the expectation should not be a split; rather, a sweep. Nor should anyone be shocked if we get upset in one or both of the games. Each remaining league game will take maximum effort to win. So far the effort has been there, the team chemistry has been great - but - you still have to put the ball in the basket enough times to come out on top and that's a game to game proposition.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 01:07 PM - Post#246989    
    In response to AsiaSunset

  • Quote:
If one is going to write off a single digit victory as merely a function of luck, maybe Harvard has been lucky that they are 5-1 instead of 2-4 in league play.



Maybe not 5-1 to 2-4, but certainly, Harvard's actual wins have outpaced expected wins based on manifested efficiency differential in league play, thus far. I could run it to know for sure, but Harvard and Penn are each about a win over expectation thus far. Princeton might be 1+ wins below expectation. Cornell's probably a win or so over expectation and Dartmouth and Yale a win under.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 3855

Reg: 11-21-04
Dartmouth
02-09-18 01:41 PM - Post#246995    
    In response to mrjames

Mike

My comment wasn't really directed at you, but rather at those discounting single digit wins and, quite frankly, you guys have an OT victory over an 0-6 Dartmouth team, a two point victory over a 2-4 Yale and a 4 point victory over Cornell, each of which could have been chalked up to "luck", as a couple Penn posters have chosen to discount some of our wins.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11235

Reg: 12-02-04
02-09-18 01:44 PM - Post#246998    
    In response to mrjames

IIRC, though, before last weekend Princeton led this thing by a country mile.

Small sample size, no?

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14054

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 01:52 PM - Post#247003    
    In response to AsiaSunset

  • AsiaSunset Said:
Good teams win their share of close games. While "luck" is always a factor, good teams seem to find a way to create their own luck.
.



Or maybe it's that the team that got lucky is perceived after the fact as good.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Dartmouth
02-09-18 02:01 PM - Post#247004    
    In response to AsiaSunset

I know - I agree. Harvard is lucky to be 5-1. If you played them out at the quality they've shown in those six games themselves, they'd probably most frequently 4-2.

As for sample size, for sure it's small. That's why this would never be used for predicting the future. Just being descriptive about what's happened.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 3855

Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 02:05 PM - Post#247008    
    In response to 10Q

Maybe - but that usually doesn't translate to 6-0.

For sure almost every team has its day - but except for the occasional totally dominant year, the best Penn teams have prevailed in a few nail biters while ending up on top of the league.

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
02-09-18 02:49 PM - Post#247011    
    In response to AsiaSunset

Good teams win close games.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-09-18 02:51 PM - Post#247012    
    In response to yoyo

2004 Penn says hi!!!!

 
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