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Username Post: Brown-Yale Weekend        (Topic#21168)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1152

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-15-18 10:14 AM - Post#247911    

Nice Harvard Crimson article about the upcoming weekend submits that Bryce practiced Monday, but at less than "full throttle."

No insight on whether Makai Mason is available for Yale and no mention of Desmond Cambridge's health for Brown.

The Crimson author does remind that prior to the most recent two seasons Harvard started 7-1 five consecutive years, during which time Harvard reached the NCAA tournament 4 times. Exception would have been 2010-11 playoff loss to Princeton. Of course, with such a young squad, only Coach Amaker and the seniors (who generally don't play) have been here before. Last weekend, underclassmen played 82% of minutes, scoring 94% of Harvard's points. Mr James sophomore class win shares must be accumulating, even without Bryce.

Despite the Crimson's strong start, losses to both Brown and Yale would leave Crimson only a game ahead of those teams and likely put the regular season title out of reach. No game will be easy as every game is a must-win for for each of the 3-5 (Columbia, Princeton, Cornell) and 4-4 teams (Brown, Yale).

On the other hand, the support and excitement for this year's squad seems to be growing - and for good reason. I awoke this morning to an email from my sister asking about Ivy Tournament Tix. There is no way she ever attended a Harvard basketball game during her 4 years there and the Tournament would be her first game of this season.

I've got my tix through March 11th. Fortunately, my wife, both sons, and, apparently, my sister, are fans.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 178

Age: 37
Reg: 01-08-11
Re: Brown-Yale Weekend
02-15-18 11:41 AM - Post#247917    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

A question for you: Assuming Penn and Harvard finish in the top two spots, if you had to pick now, who would you choose to play in the first round of the tournament?

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1152

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-15-18 11:59 AM - Post#247919    
    In response to westphillywarrior

Dartmouth would be my unrealistic answer, and that's still scary.

After that, if Mason comes back healthy you have to want to avoid Yale.

That leaves Brown, Columbia, Princeton and Cornell - each of whom are incredibly dangerous if they shoot well. Cornell would be my choice, but the Big Red is the least likely to make it out of that group.

Each of Brown, Columbia and Princeton play good offense, but have weaknesses on defense. Had Bryce not had his only effective game of the season against Brown, that game could have gone to Brown. Columbia shot well against Harvard, and Princeton did not. Likely, that will reverse itself in the rematches.

I guess this is all a way of saying I don't really know. Other than Dartmouth and Cornell, I'm worried about each of the remaining 5 teams, especially Yale if Mason returns.

Maybe I'll know more after this weekend. If Harvard can handle a healthy Brown without Bryce that might be my answer.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5243

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-15-18 12:03 PM - Post#247920    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I think it's a testament to the league's depth that there really isn't a good answer to that question.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1152

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-15-18 12:12 PM - Post#247921    
    In response to mrjames

Also, Harvard is a only a KenPom 175 team and no game is a foregone conclusion. Even Penn is at 150. Teams with rankings with that are middling shouldn't feel certain about any game.

It's a function of the bottom and top coming closer to each other.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1855

Reg: 02-15-15
02-15-18 12:13 PM - Post#247922    
    In response to mrjames

I agree. It seems to me any team that makes it to the Palestra on March 11-12 has a legitimate shot at the NCAA bid.

 
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 273

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
02-19-18 12:03 PM - Post#248577    
    In response to PennFan10

Just keep winning. With the rotation without Bryce seemingly set at this point (though a bit variable based on match-up), I wonder what we'll see the next two weekends in working Bryce back into the mix.

Also, way early, especially with the Ivy Tournament, but ESPN is showing us in bracketology because of the current tiebreaker edge over Penn. They have us in a play-in game. I'd have to think that changes to a 15 if we ran the table or even won the tournament with only a loss at Penn. We'd seemingly be a big favorite in a play-in game.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5243

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-19-18 12:22 PM - Post#248583    
    In response to digamma

If either of Penn or Harvard wins the bid and did so after doing decently well these final two weekends, I would be stunned to see them in the play-in game. Harvard would likely have a win at Penn to get there and Penn would be in the 125 range or better of both Pomeroy and the RPI (and a strong strength of record).

There are a lot of upsets in tournament week normally and if that sends the normal two or three really bad teams to Dayton, that should be enough to avoid the play-in game (and Penn would probably be a 15, regardless).

 
FlaQuaker 
Junior
Posts: 214

Age: 35
Loc: NYC
Reg: 12-04-07
02-19-18 01:01 PM - Post#248594    
    In response to mrjames

Agreed. A little surprising that Harvard is listed as a play-in game in the newest Bracketology, but I guess Lunardi has to wait for the inevitable tourney upsets.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5243

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-19-18 01:12 PM - Post#248600    
    In response to FlaQuaker

I mean, Harvard's resume is Charmin soft and would be a real PIG risk without any upsets, but there should be enough there to comfortably avoid it.

 
westcoast 
Freshman
Posts: 91

Reg: 03-08-16
02-19-18 03:03 PM - Post#248615    
    In response to FlaQuaker

In the current projected bracket, all of the #15 seeds are ranked much higher than Harvard (#165 in KenPom) - Montana (#79), UCSB (#107), Winthrop (#129), and Wright St (#134). Harvard needs some lower ranked teams to sneak in by winning their conference tournaments.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5243

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-19-18 03:39 PM - Post#248618    
    In response to westcoast

There usually are a couple of those. I don't know what the committee will use to seed the 13-16 lines, but RPI will be on there and if Harvard splits the rest of its games and wins the Ivy tourney, it'll be somewhere in the 120-130 range and if it goes 3-1 and wins the Ivy tourney, it'll be in the 100-120 range. Especially in the case of the latter, it would seem highly unlikely that such a team would be sent to Dayton unless the conference tourneys were crazy formful.

 
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