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Username Post: Big Red IL Tourney Chances        (Topic#21187)
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1037

Reg: 10-20-14
02-17-18 11:58 PM - Post#248431    

The Big Red split the weekend. An epic comeback last night against Princeton and a hard fought loss against Penn tonight.

The team is playing much better defense and is now getting offensive contributions from McBride, Julian, Gordon, Smith and Boeheim. A world of difference between the Cornell of the last two weekends and the team that started league play.

After this weekend, they are 4-6 and tied for 4th with Brown and Columbia.

The first tiebreak is head-to-head. At this moment, Cornell has the lead in this tiebreak - Cornell is 2-1 right now (1-1 against Columbia and 1-0 over Brown). Columbia is 1-2 (1-1 vs Cornell and 0-1 over Brown). Brown is 1-1 (0-1 vs Cornell and 1-0 over Columbia).

If they end in a two-way tie, they would be ahead of Brown (1-0), due to head-to-head results. They would be tied with Columbia (1-1) and have to look at the records versus teams at the top of conference. Columbia would be ahead based on their win over Harvard.

Next weekend's home games against third place Yale and Brown are really big, if they want to make a run at the #3 spot or get a stonger hold on tiebreak #1.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19782

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Big Red IL Tourney Chances
02-18-18 07:04 AM - Post#248440    
    In response to rbg

I don't know if I would agree with your analysis, at least with regard to the Penn game. Penn shot 52% overall and 44% from 3. Cornell's best defense was at the free throw line, where it "held" Penn to 55% and indeed, Penn's failure to hit its foul shots, including a couple of ohfers and missed front ends is what kept this game close. Seems to me that Cornell remains a dangerous offensive team but is at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum.

However, anything can happen with the 3-7 teams right now.

 
Chip Bayers 
Postdoc
Posts: 4901
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
02-18-18 09:38 AM - Post#248453    
    In response to palestra38

1.16 points per possession for Penn ties for Penn’s second most productive game on offense in Ivy play, behind only the 1.23 in the second Princeton game at Jadwin.

Brown at the Palestra was the other 1.16 game.


 
mountainred 
Junior
Posts: 292

Age: 51
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
02-18-18 10:42 AM - Post#248461    
    In response to Chip Bayers

While the defense is improved from the complete no-shows in the Princeton and Columbia losses, it remains pretty awful. Other than not fouling, there isn't anything they do well, and a lot of things they do rather poorly. But, if the offense isn't turning it over, and Stone and Matt are playing well, the offense can outscore the defense -- especially if others are contributing.

I agree that Boeheim, McBride and Gordon have stepped up over the last two weekends and that has helped significantly. The post-Morgan world is still bleak, but at least it looks like the Big Red have two solid starters ready in McBride and Boeheim.

Wins over Brown at home and at Dartmouth would likely be sufficient to get the Big Red into a tie for 4th. That's not a crazy scenario. But, I can't shake the thought that if Bell doesn't airball his second free throw at the end of regulation and Dartmouth doesn't blow a 5 point last-minute lead, Cornell is alone in last and remembering Bill Courtney fondly. I hate to say it, but the Big Red is in the hunt for a spot in the ILT because the middle of the league has come back to us not because we have improved.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3331

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-18-18 10:48 AM - Post#248466    
    In response to mountainred

I think Cornell's defense has gotten better, but as has been observed above, it's still pretty lousy. Penn certainly had very little difficulty scoring last night. Overall, it looks like the Big Red are on the path to defensive adequacy, and they might be able to get there next year. My guess is that Earl has concluded that his players' best qualities are on the offensive side of things, and that's what he's decided to hang his hat on.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3561

Reg: 02-04-06
02-18-18 06:42 PM - Post#248535    
    In response to Silver Maple

It's a matter of consistency to some degree. Cornell played pretty good defense against Princeton during their comeback and in the OT sessions, really crowding the three-point line and harassing the ball handler while making nearby passes difficult, then collapsing well on drives. (Of course Princeton played into that with poor spacing and off-ball movement, but the Big Red did a good job of exploiting those mistakes.)

 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1037

Reg: 10-20-14
02-18-18 10:15 PM - Post#248555    
    In response to SRP

Listening to Coach Earl after the first few games o the IL season, he seemed aware that the team was not the most talented defensive group he has coached. However, his apparent frustration seemed directed at their lack of effort against Penn, Princeton, Columbia (at least game #1) and Dartmouth. He was interviewed by Barry Leonard immediately after the Dartmouth win and he seemed quite upset at their defensive performance and felt they did not deserve to win that one.

Against Harvard the next night, he was much more pleased with the performance in the loss than he was with the win the preceding night.

While their numbers are quite poor, they do appear to be working much harder on that end since the Harvard game. The Brown game was their best overall defensive performance, but they have had some good parts (like SRP noted in the 2nd half and OT vs Cornell).

They are a work in progress, but there is improvement. The team does look much more dialed in then when they started the IL season.


 
IvyBballFan 
Senior
Posts: 378

Age: 72
Reg: 11-19-09
02-18-18 11:16 PM - Post#248561    
    In response to rbg

  • rbg Said:
They are a work in progress, but there is improvement. The team does look much more dialed in than when they started the IL season.


This dialed in group now has earned the right to host what seems to be the biggest weekend of basketball at Newman Arena since the P's came in 2010.

The carrot... If both Cornell and Columbia win out, the Lions get the 3-seed and the Red get the 4-seed in the IL Tournament. No help needed.

Think about it. Surely the state of the league this year is partially responsible, but who would have ever dared guess this possibility would still be on the table in the next to last weekend of back-to-backs?

Friday night wins by both C's this weekend are believable, given the ups and downs we've seen among the "lower six" over the last few weeks. Let's start there and let the remaining three games for each team take care of themselves.


 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1037

Reg: 10-20-14
02-26-18 09:25 PM - Post#249704    
    In response to IvyBballFan

Trying to look at the tiebreakers to determine Cornell's chance at getting into the Ivy Tournament:

Please feel free to correct, if any items are incorrect.

If Cornell goes 2-0 at Harvard and Dartmouth next weekend:
Big Red will be 7-7 and get #4 seed if Columbia goes 0-2 or 1-1.

If Cornell goes 1-1 with a win at Harvard and loss at Dartmouth:
Big Red will be 6-8 and get #4 seed if Columbia goes 0-2 or 1-1 with its win at Dartmouth. It does not matter if Princeton or Brown sweeps and gets to 6-8.

If Cornell goes 1-1 win a win at Dartmouth and loss at Harvard:
Big Red will be 6-8 and get #4 seed if Columbia goes 0-2 and Princeton does not sweep Brown and Yale. It does not matter if Brown goes 2-0.

If Cornell goes 0-2:
Big Red well be 5-9 and get #4 seed if Columbia goes 0-2, Brown goes 1-1 and Princeton goes 1-1 or 0-2.


 
whitakk 
Junior
Posts: 225

Age: 27
Reg: 11-11-14
02-26-18 11:47 PM - Post#249711    
    In response to rbg

That looks right to me. Can test specific permutations with the YUSAG's tool: https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/ivy_tiebreaks/

 
mountainred 
Junior
Posts: 292

Age: 51
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
02-27-18 07:11 PM - Post#249764    
    In response to whitakk

Basically, win at Harvard or need tons of help.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19782

Reg: 11-21-04
02-27-18 07:43 PM - Post#249767    
    In response to mountainred

Please do so.

 
rgn 
Pre-Frosh
Posts: 1

Age: 44
Reg: 02-27-18
02-28-18 11:25 AM - Post#249828    
    In response to rbg

If Cornell and Columbia both beat Dartmouth and lose to Harvard, Cornell gets the 4th seed if Brown sweeps Princeton and Penn (creating a 3 way tie for 4th with the tiebreaker going to Cornell based on head to head among the 3 teams).

 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1037

Reg: 10-20-14
03-01-18 08:29 AM - Post#249983    
    In response to rgn

Thanks, rgn, for that pickup.

I think they missed it at the Daily Sun, as well
http://cornellsun.com/2018/02/26/playoff-pi cture-h...

Welcome aboard!

 
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