Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



 Page 1 of 3 ALL123
Username Post: POY discussion        (Topic#21196)
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
02-19-18 02:33 PM - Post#248612    

I think it's down to 4 players: Lewis, Towns, Brodeur and Betley.

Betley has the highest WS of anyone in the league but hasn't been as good as Lewis or Brodeur in conference play.

Towns is coming on - averaging almost 20 points per game in conference play with a solid all-around game.

My feeling is that it's going to be between Lewis and Brodeur. Lewis has an edge rate-wise (.189 WS/40 vs .154 per sports-reference), Brodeur makes it up if you consider Brodeur averages more minutes per game (3.2 WS vs 3.0).

Others just out of the running:

Cannady - Was it less than 3 weeks ago when he was the favorite? Cannady and Princeton have been in a tailspin spin and I don't see a recovery in the works for either.

Morgan - The best talent on offense in the league but hasn't separated himself from the frontrunners. Isn't a top defensive player. On a weak team unlikely to make the Ivy playoffs. Don't see it happening.

Atkinson, Cambridge - Wouldn't be surprised if one of these 2 wins POY in the future. A step behind the frontrunners right now.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-19-18 03:02 PM - Post#248614    
    In response to TheLine

Atkinson? Did you mean Anderson?

Seems to me Cambridge has ROY locked up. Wasn’t Faulds the front runner? Mike James questioned Faulds ability to be an impact freshman over a year ago and has been defending Harvard’s sophomore class for the past month. Just saying.

I’m listening to his analysis of next year’s recruits.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
02-19-18 03:30 PM - Post#248616    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I meant Atkinson. He is going to make All-Ivy teams in the future.

I see he had 2 subpar games against Harvard. Not a surprise Lewis handled him, Atkinson needs to put on more muscle. When he does, look out.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: POY discussion
02-19-18 03:31 PM - Post#248617    
    In response to TheLine

That's a really, really good summary of where we stand. I've been giving a little thought to this as well, and here's my thinking at the moment:

In the past, it seems that three things have held true: 1) Ivy play matters more than non-conference; 2) offense is considered more than defense and 3) how your team does (and how you help make your team better) matters.

In that vein, my All-Ivy first team comes down to:

1) Towns - a ridiculous 109 ORAT on 31% usage in Ivy play and has upped his mins load to 79%.
2) Brodeur - Silently has four KP game MVPs in Ivy play. Has also upped his usage to 24% in league play with a 107 ORAT. Has looked amazing recently.
3) Cambridge - Possibly injured this past weekend, hurting the efficiency of his production, but he's scored in double-digits in every Ivy game, and his five-game stretch earlier in the Ivy campaign would be hard for anyone to match. Also an underrated defender.
4) Lewis - Knock is that foul trouble has kept him from playing a ton of minutes (63% team mins). He's also been neutralized by some teams. But if 1st team guys are ones that force you to play your game differently to account for them, he's one of those players. Also, defense would be a big consideration here.
5) Cannady - Playing 90% of team minutes, with a 109 ORAT on a 23% usage/26% shot rate. He's had a lot of big nights, and he's one where the non-conf could help him.
6) Morgan - Three KP game MVPs in Ivy play. Typical strong, efficient production. But does Cornell really deserve a first-teamer.
7) Betley - Very good shooter and very good player. With all the great choices out there, though, I find it hard to believe that a player with an 18% usage rate (who hasn't topped 24% in ANY Ivy game) would make it. Now, if Penn wins the title, I think they'll get two first teamers and he'd be the other.
8) Gettings - 106 ORAT on 30% usage in Ivy play. Has scored over 20 in seven Ivy games ALL of which came with an ORAT over 100. But I see him as behind Morgan, and Cornell certainly isn't getting two.
9) Smith - Has been strong in Ivy play (104 ORAT on 28% usage), but much like the Cornell guys... I don't see there being a spot on the 1st team for a Columbia guy.

Round out 2nd Team/HM: Brandon Anderson, Justin Bassey (DPOY), Alex Copeland, Taylor Johnson, Myles Stephens, Quinton Adlesh

I think POY should come down to Towns and Brodeur and, at the moment, I'd feel pretty good if the outright title winner took it. If there's a tie, I think I'd lean Towns at the moment, but there's still four games to play including a spotlight one at Penn next weekend.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-19-18 03:42 PM - Post#248620    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
Atkinson? Did you mean Anderson?

Seems to me Cambridge has ROY locked up. Wasn’t Faulds the front runner? Mike James questioned Faulds ability to be an impact freshman over a year ago and has been defending Harvard’s sophomore class for the past month. Just saying.

I’m listening to his analysis of next year’s recruits.



I like Mike's analysis as much as anyone but if we are counting wins on the prediction front there are plenty of misses as well. So let's be fair. He missed on Penn this year, and has downplayed Mike Wang's recruitment at Penn, despite the fact he was the top target of the coaching staff most of the year. So let's revisit this next year.

I also don't understand the need for all the defensiveness about the soph class at H.


 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: POY discussion
02-19-18 03:43 PM - Post#248621    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
That's a really, really good summary of where we stand. I've been giving a little thought to this as well, and here's my thinking at the moment:

In the past, it seems that three things have held true: 1) Ivy play matters more than non-conference; 2) offense is considered more than defense and 3) how your team does (and how you help make your team better) matters.

In that vein, my All-Ivy first team comes down to:

1) Towns - a ridiculous 109 ORAT on 31% usage in Ivy play and has upped his mins load to 79%.
2) Brodeur - Silently has four KP game MVPs in Ivy play. Has also upped his usage to 24% in league play with a 107 ORAT. Has looked amazing recently.
3) Cambridge - Possibly injured this past weekend, hurting the efficiency of his production, but he's scored in double-digits in every Ivy game, and his five-game stretch earlier in the Ivy campaign would be hard for anyone to match. Also an underrated defender.
4) Lewis - Knock is that foul trouble has kept him from playing a ton of minutes (63% team mins). He's also been neutralized by some teams. But if 1st team guys are ones that force you to play your game differently to account for them, he's one of those players. Also, defense would be a big consideration here.
5) Cannady - Playing 90% of team minutes, with a 109 ORAT on a 23% usage/26% shot rate. He's had a lot of big nights, and he's one where the non-conf could help him.
6) Morgan - Three KP game MVPs in Ivy play. Typical strong, efficient production. But does Cornell really deserve a first-teamer.
7) Betley - Very good shooter and very good player. With all the great choices out there, though, I find it hard to believe that a player with an 18% usage rate (who hasn't topped 24% in ANY Ivy game) would make it. Now, if Penn wins the title, I think they'll get two first teamers and he'd be the other.
8) Gettings - 106 ORAT on 30% usage in Ivy play. Has scored over 20 in seven Ivy games ALL of which came with an ORAT over 100. But I see him as behind Morgan, and Cornell certainly isn't getting two.
9) Smith - Has been strong in Ivy play (104 ORAT on 28% usage), but much like the Cornell guys... I don't see there being a spot on the 1st team for a Columbia guy.

Round out 2nd Team/HM: Brandon Anderson, Justin Bassey (DPOY), Alex Copeland, Taylor Johnson, Myles Stephens, Quinton Adlesh

I think POY should come down to Towns and Brodeur and, at the moment, I'd feel pretty good if the outright title winner took it. If there's a tie, I think I'd lean Towns at the moment, but there's still four games to play including a spotlight one at Penn next weekend.



This is a great summary. This seems right to me.

I would pick Towns today, simply because he has been the most consistent.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
POY discussion
02-19-18 04:09 PM - Post#248624    
    In response to PennFan10

My strong suspicion, and I went and looked at Nov.7 predictions twitter thread but couldn't find efficiency/pomeroy, is that Mike didn't miss on Penn so much as Mike missed on Princeton (sucking), Yale(injuries), Harvard (injuries/um, late blooming).

I would imagine his KenPom was right around there.

I pretty much nailed Penn as I said a KenPom between 120-130 and they're at 135.

I didn't realize they were playing the Little Sisters of the Poor both Conf and Non-Conf which shifted the narrative and the wins around. But yeah, I understood the basic strength of the team.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-19-18 04:15 PM - Post#248625    
    In response to Jeff2sf

At this point in the season, I'd have to agree on taking Towns over Brodeur. It's close, but, as noted above, Towns has been a bit more consistent. However there are four games to go (is the team chosen before or after the IL Tournament?), including a H/Pe rematch this Saturday. How that game goes will be a key data point.

On a closely related note, I'm going to nominate Caleb Wood for the nonexistent 6th man award. Has any other bench player meant as much for his team?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-19-18 04:22 PM - Post#248626    
    In response to Silver Maple

Minutes and uneven production will kill him, but I gave him a long look at 2nd team/HM. The slow Ivy start and the stinker weekend at Dartmouth/Harvard is probably too much to overcome to get votes. In the realm of offense/defense too, he's not gonna get a lot of points for defense...

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-19-18 04:49 PM - Post#248631    
    In response to mrjames

Don’t disagree with anyone, but utilizing FlyFi with not much else to do st 36,000 ft I found that Harvard was +18 vs EACH of Brown and Yale with Lewis in the lineup but -11 (Brown) and -3 (Yale) without him.

Lewis has to be first team Ivy and if he repeats his performance against Penn could press Towns and Betley for POY.

Wish +/- was available to evaluate more broadly.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: POY discussion
02-19-18 04:51 PM - Post#248632    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Again, if we want to count up the wins/losses on the prediction front (I do not) there are plenty of both for Mike J, Me, you, most everyone else who has put any kind of projection on here. I am certain the list of predictions is long and likely correlates to the number of posts someone has. I am simply pointing out that we should be cautious to cherry pick the ones that make us look good, lest we be found out.....

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-19-18 04:53 PM - Post#248633    
    In response to PennFan10

As for predictions, I would be very surprised if Lewis repeats his performance this weekend. I would not be surprised if Towns' numbers improve from the first matchup.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: POY discussion
02-19-18 04:59 PM - Post#248636    
    In response to mrjames

Tend to agree on the top four. However, for the fifth guy, I don’t think you can say Cornell or Columbia doesn’t deserve a first teamer. Somebody has to get the fifth guy. If the tournament started today, Cornell would be there. So between Morgan, Smith, Cannady, Cambridge, etc., it remains to be seen whether there will be distinguishable team performance to weight their contributions. If it was today, I’d go with the guy with the best numbers and ignore team.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: POY discussion
02-19-18 05:15 PM - Post#248637    
    In response to PennFan10

To be fair, any success I have in predicting recruit performance isn’t mine to claim. Folks around the league are very good at knowing which incoming players can play and which can’t or at least won’t immediately. To the extent I can aggregate and share what I’m hearing, that makes up the bulk of any “predictions” about incoming players (aside from my team-level models which are decent, but obviously don’t tell you anything about particular players). I’m not predicting performance based on highlight reels or anything that would be my scouting opinion, which is pretty worthless.

As for the other stuff, that’s mostly borrowed too. I stopped doing any proprietary work a few years back (except for modest code extensions) and now just pass along views of the fundamental empirical work others have performed. Two kids make it pretty difficult to do any of the hard work that is necessary to get an edge over Vegas-type lines.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
02-19-18 05:17 PM - Post#248639    
    In response to mrjames

so what were your efficiency/kenpom predictions for the ivy?

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
02-19-18 05:55 PM - Post#248647    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Mike said Oni was a player to watch coming in last year as well. With Cambridge, That’s two straight under the radar guys he more or less called. I gave him a bit of a hard time last week about Djuricic, who I think he over-hyped a bit, but Mike has the best idea of who will be an impact recruit of any of us who are posting our thoughts on the board, and I don’t think it is very close.

That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t question and push back and add information and theories. If Mike’s info on Faulds isn’t com8ng from people around the Col7mbia program, it could be colored by why Harvard or someone else passed on him, or why they don’t think he’s a fit, rather than what the Columbia staff thinks. Ultimately whether a guy is a fit is best known by the staff that is bringing him in. But as fans of our teams, we might not be doing the team or the player any favors by saying Faulds is a 4 star recruit coming to dominate from day one if the reality is that he will be a solid role player.

 
cc66 
Postdoc
Posts: 2201

Reg: 10-09-09
02-19-18 06:24 PM - Post#248652    
    In response to SomeGuy

Meisner leads the lead in rebounds and should be considered for the second team.

Re Faulds, any verdict is premature. Although Columbia fans were clearly wrong about him as a ROY candidate, centers who often have to grow into their body develop more slowly. We'll have a better sense of his long-term potential if his game matures between now and next fall.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
02-19-18 06:42 PM - Post#248654    
    In response to cc66

Sorry — just meant this year on Faulds.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
02-19-18 07:02 PM - Post#248657    
    In response to SomeGuy

I think Faulds will turn out fine - skills, athleticism, and basketball instincts are there though they need some refining.

I like Djuricic.


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
POY discussion
02-19-18 07:18 PM - Post#248660    
    In response to TheLine

I think Max merits consideration for a lower tier honor. His improvement from last year is a key reason for Penn's improved play.

He's our 2nd leading rebounder, 3rd leading assists man, in a virtual tie for 5th in scoring, and plays solid D to boot.

Edited by penn nation on 02-19-18 07:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
 Page 1 of 3 ALL123
Icon Legend Permissions Topic Options
Report Post

Quote Post

Quick Reply

Print Topic

Email Topic

3186 Views




Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.22 seconds.   Total Queries: 16   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 12:45 AM
Top