Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4471
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-22-18 04:49 PM - Post#248930
I see an opening line of Penn -11.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-22-18 04:53 PM - Post#248931
In response to Cvonvorys
I think I'd take Dartmouth there.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-18 05:00 PM - Post#248933
In response to Silver Maple
I lean the other way, although I don't think I would ever lay that many points for this Penn team. But Penn should put this team away if it senses what truly lies in front of it. Of course, we managed to lose last year here to Dartmouth, but largely because AJ was destroyed by Boudreax.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Penn v Dartmouth
02-22-18 06:00 PM - Post#248940
In response to palestra38
if it senses what truly lies in front of it. Of course, we managed to lose last year here to Dartmouth, but largely because AJ was destroyed by Boudreax.
But, as Mike and others have assured us, Dartmouth is a much better team now that they don't have Boudreaux!!!!
Yeah, I don't agree with that outlook either.
Edited by Go Green on 02-22-18 06:01 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-22-18 06:09 PM - Post#248942
In response to palestra38
Ok, i’ll bite. How exactly was AJ “destroyed?†If I remember correctly, he wasn’t guarding Boudreaux, so it can’t be head to head on that end. Was is that he defended him particularly well? AJ didn’t have a particularly strong game, but it wasn’t an awful one, and he did get shots, though admittedly he missed a higher percentage than usual.
On the other end, Boudreaux had a solid game (and a good one on the boards). But he was actually below Dartmouth’s team ORAT for the game. In other words, he got his, but he did in part because he shot more than everyone else. What detracted from the game were his turnovers, and the fact that he went silent for the last 14 minutes of the game while Dartmouth blew a 15 point lead. He didn’t score in the last 10 minutes as the game went in the balance (though he did have one important offensive rebound).
Overall, not a bad game, and he was key to the victory. But hardly a destruction.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Penn v Dartmouth
02-22-18 06:13 PM - Post#248945
In response to SomeGuy
Boudreaux was 7-12, 16 points and 12 rebounds. Helluva game. If he has a low ORAT with that output, there is something wrong with using that stat in such a limited sample.
And in the game at Dartmouth, he was 7-13, with 12 rebounds. AJ had less than half that output.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-18 06:17 PM - Post#248947
In response to palestra38
Look this one up under 'Trap Game". No way I lay 11, especially the way this group shoots FTs.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-18 06:25 PM - Post#248948
In response to Streamers
I think it more likely that they win by 11 or more than less than that, but I agree that it is insanity to lay that many points with this Penn team both because of the FT issues but their outside shooting is so inconsistent. If Betley and Wood were hitting, we would have beaten Harvard. When they miss, we can lose to anyone.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-18 06:29 PM - Post#248949
In response to palestra38
lay the points, take the homie's. The hay is in the barn.....
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth
02-22-18 07:01 PM - Post#248950
In response to palestra38
He had 4 turnovers, which is like adding 4 misses with no chance of an offensive rebound. So that works out to a 102 ORAT. That is below the 106 they put up as a team against us.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth
02-22-18 08:56 PM - Post#248954
In response to SomeGuy
Come on--that's 4 TOs in 37 minutes and he had only 1 in the other game. That is outstanding. And a turnover is a subjective stat that does not necessarily reflect the true fault, such as if a player should have been cutting and failed to do so that a great pass went out of bounds. This stat simply is not meaningful in this situation. I was at that game--he was the best player on the court...in both games, actually.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth
02-22-18 09:33 PM - Post#248958
In response to palestra38
Well, I was there too, and that wasn’t the impression I came away with. And saying that turnovers don’t matter is basically like saying none of the stats matter at all. If you’re going to say that, you might as well throw out his points and rebounds too — all of this can just be reduced to it being somebody else’s responsibility if you really want it to be. Or I could just say AJ missed a bunch of bunnies that he normally makes (which is true), and therefore played better than his numbers.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-18 09:37 PM - Post#248959
In response to SomeGuy
EB was much better than AJ vs each other last year.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-23-18 01:03 AM - Post#248971
In response to PennFan10
11.5 is an awful lot of points for a team that doesn't win many blowouts, but I trust PennFan10.
Can someone help me understand how the Harvard-Princeton game is a pickem? What am I missing? Princeton figure something out this week? I know their backs are against the wall, but it was even bet down from Harvard -1.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-23-18 01:08 AM - Post#248973
In response to Quakers03
Princeton has been on the road. We crushed them at their place but that doesn't happen often. Brown took OT and some incredible shooting. It would not surprise me to see Princeton win. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Harvard pull away.
Pickem feels about right to me given the volatility of outcomes.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth
02-23-18 07:18 AM - Post#248975
In response to SomeGuy
Let's be accurate. I didn't say turnovers don't matter. I said that (1) 4 turnovers in 37 minutes for a big man isn't bad in the first place, (2) unlike points and rebounds, turnovers are often a subjective statistic and (3) we were talking about 2 games and he had only 1 in the other loss by Penn. In contrast, when AJ is missing bunnies, it likely is due to pressure from Boudreaux.
It's really tough to argue that Boudreaux was not the best player on the court in both of those games, and if you are basing it on ORAT, I suggest that is not an accurate measure in such a small sample (perhaps because turnovers in such a small sample are overemphasized)
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 586
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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02-23-18 08:27 AM - Post#248978
In response to Quakers03
11.5 is an awful lot of points for a team that doesn't win many blowouts, but I trust PennFan10.
Can someone help me understand how the Harvard-Princeton game is a pickem? What am I missing? Princeton figure something out this week? I know their backs are against the wall, but it was even bet down from Harvard -1.
Harvard is an absolute lock. I may put down half a loaf on that game.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 09:41 AM - Post#248982
In response to Charlie Fog
In the words of the immortal Mike Missinelli, "That line is telling me something." I wouldn't touch it with a pitchfork, but it is 1 point for a reason.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 10:10 AM - Post#248988
In response to palestra38
All depends on what you believe to be true. Princeton, as it’s played recently, should be a 3-5 point dog at home. Vegas, however, mostly ignores short run changes in team quality (except in the case of injuries or an “actual†change in team composition) in favor of the long run quality. The line isn’t all the way to “true odds,†surprisingly enough: the true line should be Princeton -1.5. That’s why the line is being bet back toward Princeton.
Smart money tends to ignore short run fluctuations in team output. It’s why Penn maintained seemingly overstated odds all last year to make the tourney even after starting 0-6.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 10:11 AM - Post#248989
In response to palestra38
On some books, PU opened -1! Almost everyone has them at +1 or 1.5 now. This is not like the NFL where the books know all. They really don’t when it comes to Ivy hoops. The line movement tells me it was a misbook and the late money (including mine) will come down on Harvard. PU would have to shoot very very well to win this. The over at 129 will hit if either team starts getting to the line much. Also check out the over on Brown & CU. I like it at 159.
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