Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4526
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-22-18 04:49 PM - Post#248930
I see an opening line of Penn -11.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3782
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-22-18 04:53 PM - Post#248931
In response to Cvonvorys
I think I'd take Dartmouth there.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-18 05:00 PM - Post#248933
In response to Silver Maple
I lean the other way, although I don't think I would ever lay that many points for this Penn team. But Penn should put this team away if it senses what truly lies in front of it. Of course, we managed to lose last year here to Dartmouth, but largely because AJ was destroyed by Boudreax.
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Go Green
PhD Student
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Age: 53
Reg: 04-22-10
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Penn v Dartmouth 02-22-18 06:00 PM - Post#248940
In response to palestra38
if it senses what truly lies in front of it. Of course, we managed to lose last year here to Dartmouth, but largely because AJ was destroyed by Boudreax.
But, as Mike and others have assured us, Dartmouth is a much better team now that they don't have Boudreaux!!!!
Yeah, I don't agree with that outlook either.
Edited by Go Green on 02-22-18 06:01 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6417
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-22-18 06:09 PM - Post#248942
In response to palestra38
Ok, i’ll bite. How exactly was AJ “destroyed?†If I remember correctly, he wasn’t guarding Boudreaux, so it can’t be head to head on that end. Was is that he defended him particularly well? AJ didn’t have a particularly strong game, but it wasn’t an awful one, and he did get shots, though admittedly he missed a higher percentage than usual.
On the other end, Boudreaux had a solid game (and a good one on the boards). But he was actually below Dartmouth’s team ORAT for the game. In other words, he got his, but he did in part because he shot more than everyone else. What detracted from the game were his turnovers, and the fact that he went silent for the last 14 minutes of the game while Dartmouth blew a 15 point lead. He didn’t score in the last 10 minutes as the game went in the balance (though he did have one important offensive rebound).
Overall, not a bad game, and he was key to the victory. But hardly a destruction.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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Penn v Dartmouth 02-22-18 06:13 PM - Post#248945
In response to SomeGuy
Boudreaux was 7-12, 16 points and 12 rebounds. Helluva game. If he has a low ORAT with that output, there is something wrong with using that stat in such a limited sample.
And in the game at Dartmouth, he was 7-13, with 12 rebounds. AJ had less than half that output.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8340
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-18 06:17 PM - Post#248947
In response to palestra38
Look this one up under 'Trap Game". No way I lay 11, especially the way this group shoots FTs.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-18 06:25 PM - Post#248948
In response to Streamers
I think it more likely that they win by 11 or more than less than that, but I agree that it is insanity to lay that many points with this Penn team both because of the FT issues but their outside shooting is so inconsistent. If Betley and Wood were hitting, we would have beaten Harvard. When they miss, we can lose to anyone.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-18 06:29 PM - Post#248949
In response to palestra38
lay the points, take the homie's. The hay is in the barn.....
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6417
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth 02-22-18 07:01 PM - Post#248950
In response to palestra38
He had 4 turnovers, which is like adding 4 misses with no chance of an offensive rebound. So that works out to a 102 ORAT. That is below the 106 they put up as a team against us.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth 02-22-18 08:56 PM - Post#248954
In response to SomeGuy
Come on--that's 4 TOs in 37 minutes and he had only 1 in the other game. That is outstanding. And a turnover is a subjective stat that does not necessarily reflect the true fault, such as if a player should have been cutting and failed to do so that a great pass went out of bounds. This stat simply is not meaningful in this situation. I was at that game--he was the best player on the court...in both games, actually.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6417
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth 02-22-18 09:33 PM - Post#248958
In response to palestra38
Well, I was there too, and that wasn’t the impression I came away with. And saying that turnovers don’t matter is basically like saying none of the stats matter at all. If you’re going to say that, you might as well throw out his points and rebounds too — all of this can just be reduced to it being somebody else’s responsibility if you really want it to be. Or I could just say AJ missed a bunch of bunnies that he normally makes (which is true), and therefore played better than his numbers.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-18 09:37 PM - Post#248959
In response to SomeGuy
EB was much better than AJ vs each other last year.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-23-18 01:03 AM - Post#248971
In response to PennFan10
11.5 is an awful lot of points for a team that doesn't win many blowouts, but I trust PennFan10.
Can someone help me understand how the Harvard-Princeton game is a pickem? What am I missing? Princeton figure something out this week? I know their backs are against the wall, but it was even bet down from Harvard -1.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-23-18 01:08 AM - Post#248973
In response to Quakers03
Princeton has been on the road. We crushed them at their place but that doesn't happen often. Brown took OT and some incredible shooting. It would not surprise me to see Princeton win. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Harvard pull away.
Pickem feels about right to me given the volatility of outcomes.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth 02-23-18 07:18 AM - Post#248975
In response to SomeGuy
Let's be accurate. I didn't say turnovers don't matter. I said that (1) 4 turnovers in 37 minutes for a big man isn't bad in the first place, (2) unlike points and rebounds, turnovers are often a subjective statistic and (3) we were talking about 2 games and he had only 1 in the other loss by Penn. In contrast, when AJ is missing bunnies, it likely is due to pressure from Boudreaux.
It's really tough to argue that Boudreaux was not the best player on the court in both of those games, and if you are basing it on ORAT, I suggest that is not an accurate measure in such a small sample (perhaps because turnovers in such a small sample are overemphasized)
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 587
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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02-23-18 08:27 AM - Post#248978
In response to Quakers03
11.5 is an awful lot of points for a team that doesn't win many blowouts, but I trust PennFan10.
Can someone help me understand how the Harvard-Princeton game is a pickem? What am I missing? Princeton figure something out this week? I know their backs are against the wall, but it was even bet down from Harvard -1.
Harvard is an absolute lock. I may put down half a loaf on that game.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 09:41 AM - Post#248982
In response to Charlie Fog
In the words of the immortal Mike Missinelli, "That line is telling me something." I wouldn't touch it with a pitchfork, but it is 1 point for a reason.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 10:10 AM - Post#248988
In response to palestra38
All depends on what you believe to be true. Princeton, as it’s played recently, should be a 3-5 point dog at home. Vegas, however, mostly ignores short run changes in team quality (except in the case of injuries or an “actual†change in team composition) in favor of the long run quality. The line isn’t all the way to “true odds,†surprisingly enough: the true line should be Princeton -1.5. That’s why the line is being bet back toward Princeton.
Smart money tends to ignore short run fluctuations in team output. It’s why Penn maintained seemingly overstated odds all last year to make the tourney even after starting 0-6.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8340
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 10:11 AM - Post#248989
In response to palestra38
On some books, PU opened -1! Almost everyone has them at +1 or 1.5 now. This is not like the NFL where the books know all. They really don’t when it comes to Ivy hoops. The line movement tells me it was a misbook and the late money (including mine) will come down on Harvard. PU would have to shoot very very well to win this. The over at 129 will hit if either team starts getting to the line much. Also check out the over on Brown & CU. I like it at 159.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2701
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-23-18 11:10 AM - Post#248998
In response to Streamers
Three things going for Princeton tonight:
1. Jadwin
2. "MUST WIN" for Princeton
3. Although certainly not a trap game for Harvard, the regular season league championship is on the line Saturday night, possibly regardless of whether or not Harvard wins tonight.
For what it's worth, after numerous OOC 'clunkers', Harvard hasn't experienced one in a while. Is tonight true to OOC form? Or does Harvard continue its upwards trajectory while Princeton continues to struggle, especially from 3.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6417
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth 02-23-18 11:29 AM - Post#249003
In response to palestra38
I think you’re moving the goalposts on me (again). You said he destroyed AJ at the Palestra. I said he didn’t. And then you started talking about what happened in Hanover. If the fact that he turned it over once in Hanover indicates that his turnovers at the Palestra didn’t matter, then I would argue that the fact that AJ shot poorly at the Palestra is trumped by the fact he shot well for the year.
More seriously, I do think that the overall body of work indicates more than what happens in one or two games. So if that is your point, we agree. If you evaluate Boudreaux purely on what you saw as a Penn fan, you are going to have an inflated view, because the two games you saw were half his league wins.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21310
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-23-18 11:41 AM - Post#249006
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Out of curiosity, when is the last time a Jadwin game has been a "trap game" for anyone?
Three things going for Princeton tonight:
1. Jadwin
2. "MUST WIN" for Princeton
3. Although certainly not a trap game for Harvard, the regular season league championship is on the line Saturday night, possibly regardless of whether or not Harvard wins tonight.
For what it's worth, after numerous OOC 'clunkers', Harvard hasn't experienced one in a while. Is tonight true to OOC form? Or does Harvard continue its upwards trajectory while Princeton continues to struggle, especially from 3.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Penn v Dartmouth 02-23-18 11:55 AM - Post#249008
In response to SomeGuy
I readily admitted that my view of him was based solely on the two games against Penn.
Guy was a player, though, and it would have been very interesting to see what he would have done this year.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8340
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 01:09 PM - Post#249019
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Three things going for Princeton tonight:
1. Jadwin
2. "MUST WIN" for Princeton
3. Although certainly not a trap game for Harvard, the regular season league championship is on the line Saturday night, possibly regardless of whether or not Harvard wins tonight.
For what it's worth, after numerous OOC 'clunkers', Harvard hasn't experienced one in a while. Is tonight true to OOC form? Or does Harvard continue its upwards trajectory while Princeton continues to struggle, especially from 3.
I bought the trap game theory avoiding Penn -11, Harvard is now GETTING 2. PU should have been desperate last week. Ivy Friday games get more action than they should from the dumb money because there are relatively few games to play. I'm taking Harvard and probably the over.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4526
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-23-18 03:49 PM - Post#249039
In response to Streamers
Princeton sucks!!! Bet on Harvard...
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 04:49 PM - Post#249049
In response to Streamers
Harvard +1.5 or +2 is the fair line.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4526
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-23-18 05:19 PM - Post#249053
In response to mrjames
Harvard +1.5 or +2 is the fair line.
So what's a fair line for Penn v Harvard tomorrow night? Harvard +4 or +5?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 05:21 PM - Post#249054
In response to Cvonvorys
+3 at best
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4526
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-23-18 05:31 PM - Post#249057
In response to palestra38
That seems odd...
I just went back and checked... Princeton was -4 1/2 when we played them at Jadwin. If we were to play them tonite, do you think the line would be Princeton -1 1/2 or -2?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 05:33 PM - Post#249059
In response to Cvonvorys
Among many others, I find it hard to believe the lines on Princeton. Vegas still thinks they are a power in the League. I would be shocked but very happy if they take out Harvard tonight.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 05:36 PM - Post#249061
In response to palestra38
Penn -5.5 would be where I’d open it.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 05:41 PM - Post#249063
In response to mrjames
We'll see tomorrow---that may be the line if Princeton beats Harvard. But I think it will be closer to my number if Harvard wins.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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02-23-18 10:46 PM - Post#249117
In response to palestra38
Bring out the shovels. Princeton is done. Both feet in the grave.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32906
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-18 10:53 PM - Post#249121
In response to weinhauers_ghost
They led virtually the entire game. Just threw it away. But no tears from me. I want Penn to win it by running the last 3.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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02-23-18 10:55 PM - Post#249123
In response to palestra38
Saw most of the game; Princeton really did throw it away. As much as they have slipped this year I am still happy to see them out of the tourney. Beating them three times would not have been easy.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3782
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-23-18 11:05 PM - Post#249127
In response to OldBig5
See, here’s the thing about having a conference tournament: to win it, there’s a pretty good chance you’re going to have to beat somebody for the third time that season.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8340
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-24-18 12:34 AM - Post#249138
In response to mrjames
Penn -5.5 would be where I’d open it.
I would have said 4.5 but after tonight’s results I think you may be right.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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02-24-18 08:08 AM - Post#249147
In response to palestra38
They led virtually the entire game. Just threw it away. But no tears from me. I want Penn to win it by running the last 3.
They did throw it away. They managed to foul out Lewis early in OT, but Aririguzoh clanked both FT attempts after that play, and pretty much everyone else was throwing up rocks from the line as well. I thought they completely lost their poise down the stretch. Terrible execution of every phase of the game.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-24-18 09:06 AM - Post#249154
In response to Streamers
-4.5 wouldn't be unreasonable. Think -5 or -5.5 are better fits, but -4.5 wouldn't be crazy.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4526
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-24-18 12:06 PM - Post#249179
In response to mrjames
You nailed it... Penn -4 1/2.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8340
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-24-18 12:11 PM - Post#249181
In response to mrjames
I should have known this team has a psychology that makes 'looking ahead' pretty unlikely. This team is as cohesive and positive as a group as any Penn team I have seen in 40+ years of following the program. I think Harvard is going to face a confident, well-rested and healthy Penn Squad at home. Looking forward to dispatching them.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-24-18 12:25 PM - Post#249187
In response to Streamers
How was Rothschild moving? He didn't look 100% the last 2 weekends, will need a closer to 100% Max today.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6417
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-24-18 12:50 PM - Post#249195
In response to TheLine
And the fact of the tournament unfortunately could make us less likely to push him. With only the #1 seed in play, you don’t want to lose him long term for limited benefit.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-24-18 01:17 PM - Post#249200
In response to SomeGuy
They really need Max and all I can say is that he was rubbing the same spot most of the game and looked very uncomfortable on the play that forced him out. He used a Gatorade bottle on the area (as he had been doing) and headed to the locker room. His walking seemed ok after the game and there's no doubt he won't miss this. I am sure the team is fired up and I expect coach to have some answers for Lewis. Barring one of those brutal shooting nights I think they take care of business. I'm fired up.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-24-18 02:34 PM - Post#249211
In response to Quakers03
Max had cramps. He will be fine.
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