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Username Post: Harvard        (Topic#21209)
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3268

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-24-18 11:06 AM - Post#249171    
    In response to palestra38

I don’t think it will take 3 years. 2 at most. There’s good coaching and a lot of talent in the program. They’re just having a lousy season. It happens.

 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1483
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 68
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
02-24-18 11:27 AM - Post#249172    
    In response to Silver Maple

Do we think Chris Lewis was a more highly rated recruit than James Brown?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-24-18 12:37 PM - Post#249191    
    In response to Silver Maple

Jaelin Llewellyn.

Things will be very different, very quickly next year.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-24-18 12:40 PM - Post#249193    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

I tend to think of Ivy recruiting statements as “AI-era” only. Comparing anything to the 60s and 70s is rough, because the league was very different.

He’s not even the highest rated Ivy recruit in my database going back to 2003. Though I think you hear that a lot on ESPN broadcasts because he was in the 60s at ESPN and that was the highest for an Ivy recruit in their records.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 794

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
02-24-18 01:30 PM - Post#249202    
    In response to mrjames

I agree with one caveat. Stephens or Cannady or both need to become leaders with the will to win no matter what obstacles. A 2nd one might be that Mitch commits to playing Arirguzoh. Tigers backcourt will be potent.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19276

Reg: 11-21-04
02-24-18 04:01 PM - Post#249220    
    In response to bradley

A team ready to contend doesn't lose 8 in a row down the stretch. Princeton's freshmen (this year's) will have to be MUCH better (pun intended). Henderson has been a good coach until this year so it wouldn't surprise me if they found themselves in the mix but I think they are behind Yale and Columbia in terms of guys ready to play right now.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4632

Reg: 11-22-04
02-24-18 05:55 PM - Post#249232    
    In response to palestra38

Neither the overall record nor Ken Pom says Columbia is better than Princeton. Columbia obviously has played better over the last 7 games, but I don’t think that we can or should presume that the last 7 games are more (or less) indicative than the rest of the results for these teams. They are just more data points.

Personally, I think Princeton has a better setup for the future even before adding the incoming class, and the incoming class looks better for them as well. But it’s close enough overall to be reasonably debatable— just saying i’d Take Princeton’s situation.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1633

Reg: 10-09-09
02-24-18 06:08 PM - Post#249236    
    In response to SomeGuy

That's highly debatable. The context for the last seven games includes the return of Kyle Castlin + the clear improvement in the performance of a group of younger players. Hence the additional data is not just shapeless and random, but rather tracks very closely with specific new developments within the team.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-24-18 06:36 PM - Post#249239    
    In response to cc66

You’d have to offer me significant odds to take Columbia over Princeton next year, as the two teams are currently expected to be constructed. Something like +300 or more.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1633

Reg: 10-09-09
02-24-18 06:45 PM - Post#249241    
    In response to mrjames

I was referring to what SG said about this year, not the projections for next.

That said, we will have 3 players (Smith, Adlesh, Meisner) who will probably rate as All-Ivy honorable mention or better, plus the addition of Ellis, and the improvement of Tape/Faulds. Although I don't know whether we will be better than Princeton, we will be quite a good team.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3533

Reg: 02-04-06
02-24-18 08:53 PM - Post#249299    
    In response to cc66

The team's meltdown this year has been strange. Some tactical, some emotional, some technical.

I still think the elixir for all three of the problems is to play more aggressive, ball-hawking defense with simpler rotations and slides. It's hard to be in a funk when you're getting deflections and steals and harassing the other team. And it's easier to yell "play harder" than "play smarter," which MH has ended up having to do too many times.

Lots of long-armed guys with decent hops but not as much lateral quickness, combined with a lot of younger guys who have trouble figuring out switches, makes the current complex yet mostly passive switching man/matchup zone a questionable choice. (Especially against Harvard, which practically wants to turn the ball over if you give them half an excuse, it seems perverse not to be all over the dribbler and the first-pass lanes.) So frustrating to get a team in trouble late in the shot clock, only to have them hit a shot or get an OR, which has happened a lot during this losing streak. At least stick Morales in there to be a pest once in a while.

For most of the game, the offense looked OK, although the threes weren't falling and the FT shooting was poor. But at least there was some shape and spacing and passing and cutting--it looked like an offense, not a bunch of guys trying to win it by themselves.

Much will get a lot better next year, I predict (although he was quite productive this year). The angry expression on his face when he makes a mistake looks like "I know I can be better than that," which bodes well for him cleaning up some of his defensive issues. Cannady should spend time working on his floater game, because he can usually get into the lane when opponents overplay the three, but he cannot finish at the rim in traffic with any consistency. Stephens should keep working on that outside shot and practice finding open guys against collapsing defenses. Aririguzoh has only scratched the surface of what he can do--I thought he played valiantly against Lewis and did a decent job, even though Lewis scored efficiently overall. i wouldn't write off Schwieger, either--he looked good but inexperienced this year.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4632

Reg: 11-22-04
02-25-18 12:16 AM - Post#249423    
    In response to cc66

Well, when I talk about the kenpom ratings, Princeton has played poorly over the last 7 more than Columbia has played well. Mike James can probably isolate this and tell us where each has been over the last 7, but I would guess that Columbia has continued to chug along as a team in the 200-250 range all year, while Princeton played like a top 125 team for a while and then has played poorly enough over the last 7 to plummet to 200. So unless Kyle Castlin is making Princeton worse, I don’t see the big uptick in Columbia.

Personally, I think this is two years in a row where Columbia is fairly similar through the course of the year, but the home/away split makes it seem like they collapsed (last year) or improved (this year). I think the reality is that they play better at home, and if you front or backload the home games, It can look like they’ve changed more than they really have.

 
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