res
Masters Student
Posts: 839
Reg: 03-21-06
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Patriot League Tournament
02-26-18 01:14 PM - Post#249596
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
The Lehigh percentage seems absurdly low. I’m guessing KenPom doesn’t give more weight to recent performance?
I don't believe he does. I know he has considered doing so but he didn't think that it improved his results.
But, also don't forget, those probabilities also take into account that Lehigh (and Navy) will be playing on the road in the semis assuming all favorites get through the quarters. Also, Navy would be playing Colgate while Lehigh would be on the road at the overwhelming favorite. That goes a long way in explaining Colgate's and Navy's better odds at getting to and winning the final vis a vis Lehigh's.
The fact that we're concerned about a Lehigh game because of how the teams match up is overwhelmed by all of the other data in kenpom's analysis.
Edited by res on 02-26-18 01:17 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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Re: Patriot League Tournament
02-26-18 02:39 PM - Post#249610
In response to atlantabison
How about glass half full, either a team we just beat by 41 or a team we led from start to finish on the road to beat them by 17 at their place.
That's a glass half full of hubris!
(Players probably ought to look at it your way.)
Indeed, and easier for them to do so if the rest of the Bucknell community does too.
One possession at a time, baby. Let's go!
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: Patriot League Tournament
02-26-18 08:20 PM - Post#249678
In response to res
The Lehigh percentage seems absurdly low. I’m guessing KenPom doesn’t give more weight to recent performance?
The fact that we're concerned about a Lehigh game because of how the teams match up is overwhelmed by all of the other data in kenpom's analysis.
And that is about as clear an explanation of kenpom as ever I have seen, lol!
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
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02-26-18 09:00 PM - Post#249688
In response to bison63
Tournament preview from The Morning Call
http://www.mcall.com/sports/mc-spt-patriot -tourney...
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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02-26-18 11:53 PM - Post#249707
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
Tourney preview at Busting Brackets
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/02/26/patriot-le a...
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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02-27-18 10:42 AM - Post#249723
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
Tonight's games:
Army at Loyola
American at Lafayette
Personally, I think that Army and Lafayette will win, but I would not be surprised if Loyola ends up winning at home.
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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02-27-18 12:59 PM - Post#249732
In response to Bison89
Personally, I think that Army and Lafayette will win, but I would not be surprised if Loyola ends up winning at home.
KenPom favors Army, but I think the Greyhounds will prevail on a heckuva performance by senior Andre Walker.
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Bison89
Professor
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Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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02-27-18 03:08 PM - Post#249751
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
Personally, I think that Army and Lafayette will win, but I would not be surprised if Loyola ends up winning at home.
KenPom favors Army, but I think the Greyhounds will prevail on a heckuva performance by senior Andre Walker.
BRW, I agree that Andre Walker is the wild-card in this game. He is a VERY good player who would have looked great in Orange and Blue.
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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02-27-18 08:04 PM - Post#249763
In response to atlantabison
FYI the Loyola game is on Stadium TV. Jason Knapp appears to be back from his sabbatical of announcing curling.
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jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts: 3305
Age: 65
Reg: 05-07-12
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02-27-18 10:07 PM - Post#249778
In response to BUFan
It's Loyola. Pretty good game. The boys will need to be ready.
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Bucknellbisonfan21
Masters Student
Posts: 548
Loc: Bloomsburg
Reg: 11-12-15
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Patriot League Tournament
02-27-18 10:15 PM - Post#249780
In response to atlantabison
I forget his exact quote but when Walker was asked postgame about playing Bucknell next, he said something like "we got our work cut out for us, but nobody's unbeatable, except Mayweather"
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jkrun80
Postdoc
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Age: 65
Reg: 05-07-12
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02-27-18 10:35 PM - Post#249782
In response to Bucknellbisonfan21
Didn’t appear to be much defense at Lafayette. If they shoot that well on Thursday Colgate could be in trouble.
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
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02-27-18 10:37 PM - Post#249783
In response to Bucknellbisonfan21
Wow, Sa'eed Nelson with a career-high 41. Painful to have that in a losing effort.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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02-28-18 12:23 AM - Post#249798
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
Wow, Sa'eed Nelson with a career-high 41. Painful to have that in a losing effort.
Final score was 93-86. Usually games with that sort of score have a very fast tempo and tons of shots. However this game only had 67 possessions per team, not a fast pace at all. AU shot .625 on twos and .423 on threes, while LC was .425 on twos and .650 (12-19) on threes. Only 19 turnovers between the two teams. Impressive offensive - but awful defense.
If Gasperini, who is a quality big man, is able to return from his serious concussion next year, AU could definitely challenge for the first division. That assumes Nelson returns. Some rumors (unconfirmed) about a possible transfer gave been floating around.
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
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02-28-18 10:15 AM - Post#249817
In response to Bison137
Wow, Sa'eed Nelson with a career-high 41. Painful to have that in a losing effort.
Final score was 93-86. Usually games with that sort of score have a very fast tempo and tons of shots. However this game only had 67 possessions per team, not a fast pace at all. AU shot .625 on twos and .423 on threes, while LC was .425 on twos and .650 (12-19) on threes. Only 19 turnovers between the two teams. Impressive offensive - but awful defense.
If Gasperini, who is a quality big man, is able to return from his serious concussion next year, AU could definitely challenge for the first division. That assumes Nelson returns. Some rumors (unconfirmed) about a possible transfer gave been floating around.
In general, if a team shoot ".625 on twos and .423 on threes", I would bet on them to win 99.99% of the time. Sa'eed Nelson has really developed into a nice player. I agree that it is a shame that he put up 41 and still lost.
From the final scores of both games, it looks like the word DEFENSE was not mentioned that often last night.
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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02-28-18 08:26 PM - Post#249944
In response to atlantabison
Our friends in Vegas have weighed in on tomorrow's games:
Bucknell -16
Lehigh -6.5
Colgate -7.5
Navy -8
Feels about right to me. I guess the only one that surprises me is that Navy is -8. I would've thought more like -5, but maybe that debacle at the Hart Center a few weeks ago is bumping the line.
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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02-28-18 10:40 PM - Post#249964
In response to BUFan
Just thought I’d leave this here as we get ready for the PLT.
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=2260334 2
As GMU dominates the start of the clip, worth noting they won at VCU tonight on yet another buzzer beater (technically 0.7 left).
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NoMoney89
Freshman
Posts: 89
Age: 57
Reg: 01-17-18
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02-28-18 10:49 PM - Post#249968
In response to BUFan
Just thought I’d leave this here as we get ready for the PLT.
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=2260334 2
As GMU dominates the start of the clip, worth noting they won at VCU tonight on yet another buzzer beater (technically 0.7 left).
Aside from the Mackenzie 3 if you look further into the Oregon loss to Boise State you can hear the call from our former Radio man Bob Behler who has been the voice of the Broncos for the last few years (actually might be more than 10 now). It's available as a stand alone link on the ESPN site liked above
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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Patriot League Tournament
03-02-18 01:42 PM - Post#250163
In response to NoMoney89
Spring break status of the remaining schools:
Bucknell and Colgate
In session all tournament long; break starts Friday March 9
Boston University (BU) and Holy Cross
On break for semifinal and final (break starts later today)
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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Patriot League Tournament
03-04-18 02:43 PM - Post#250756
In response to atlantabison
Holy Cross giving CU their best, but it is starting to look like that won’t be enough. 54-48 Cu 2:30 left
Edited by bison63 on 03-04-18 02:46 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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