SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-18 12:28 AM - Post#250362
In response to Quakers03
Yes, “blame†may be too strong a term, but it wasn’t the best pass or decision, by any means. Credit Yale for making it hard, but that’s a play we need to make.
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QuakerShaker
Freshman
Posts: 59
Loc: West Coast
Reg: 02-04-10
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03-03-18 12:29 AM - Post#250363
In response to Streamers
Goodman beat badly off the crossover with :35 to go.
Horrible inbound play at the end to lose the ball with :3.6. Not a single screen.
Betley was way too close to the inbound on the last play, Foreman is asleep, and then Max sh!t the bed rotating off Atkinson.
Wow.
| When are we going to put in Solomito? |
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1156
Reg: 07-28-07
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03-03-18 12:29 AM - Post#250364
In response to Quakers03
I don’t think we had a timeout left at that point
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1156
Reg: 07-28-07
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03-03-18 12:32 AM - Post#250365
In response to SteveChop
That aside, this was the game that we will fear it will be here where our free-throw shooting would cost us to game. I agree with all of the posters that the officiating was terrible but had we made a more reasonable percentage of free throws it wouldn’t have mattered in the final analysis. Notwithstanding our inability to hit free throws, some investigation against these officials is necessary-don’t think there’s a protest rule but I I’m sure that we can ask for their grades on this performance.
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QuakerShaker
Freshman
Posts: 59
Loc: West Coast
Reg: 02-04-10
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03-03-18 12:40 AM - Post#250366
In response to SteveChop
Ball + lead with :03.6 to go. You can't lose those. We shot 50% from behind the arc. Our guys just flat out lost focus down the stretch. It's not the officiating.
| When are we going to put in Solomito? |
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-03-18 01:07 AM - Post#250368
In response to QuakerShaker
Max had no choice but to rotate or Oni dunks it for the winner. Darnell got lost on the inbounds and Ryan should have rotated down and fouled Atkinson to force him to the line.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 01:14 AM - Post#250369
In response to PennFan10
It was not a great pass to Oni. If Darnell hadn’t been Lost In Space he might have even been able to get a hand on it.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4366
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 06:53 AM - Post#250371
In response to QuakerShaker
You are correct. SD and the players on the court really crumbled down the stretch. Having AJ at mid court committing his 5th foul with only 2 seconds having run off the clock was unimaginable. SD's whole strategy down the stretch was incomprehensible.
Having said that and acknowledging our failures - that officiating crew was the worst. They never should be allowed to ref another Ivy League game. They obviously blew the critical call and because ILDN does/t have many cameras you couldn't be 100% sure that the Yale player knocked it out - just 99%, so I guess it would have been a difficult overrule. But - they were horrible throughout the game.
In the end we need to realize that despite playing well throughout the majority of the game, it was us. We blew it.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32860
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 08:17 AM - Post#250375
In response to AsiaSunset
I got trapped in the maelstrom in Philadelphia and it took over 3 hours to drive to Mt Airy from Center City--with no radio broadcast, I missed the game, only to hear that (leaving everything else aside) that we had a 3 point lead with less than 4 to go AND FOULED INTENTIONALLY. Let me see, what's the worst that can happen if we don't foul? They tie. What's the worst that can happen if we foul? We saw. How can we take the risk of losing which does not exist if we play honestly? Who comes up with these strategies? Yes, the chances of winning in regulation are slightly higher, but it brings on a chance of losing. To me, it is incomprehensible to foul there.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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03-03-18 08:35 AM - Post#250377
In response to palestra38
I was thinking about that point all night. Darnell also gave an intentional reach with 8 seconds left but made up for it by sinking free throws. It's certainly a notch in the belt for the dont foul crowd. I got home just in time but was freaking out not finding it on radio. How was that even possible? PSU was on 990 so no 560? The whole thing was amateur hour.
And I hope steve has the names of these officials. They cannot do another game of ours for a long time. Chip, was it one guy more than another?
I'm still fuming.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-18 08:50 AM - Post#250378
In response to Quakers03
I haven't run the numbers though I guarantee you Steve has.
But how in the heck is "the worst thing that can happen is a tie"? They make a 3, Penn has the same basic risk inbounding the ball as they would if they inbounded after the two made free throws.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32860
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 08:59 AM - Post#250381
In response to Jeff2sf
Incorrect. They would never play tight and risk a foul. They would make sure we don't get the ball downcourt quickly
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4366
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 09:03 AM - Post#250382
In response to Quakers03
Even the decision not to throw the ball long on that last inbounds was idiotic.
You throw it high and deep, don’t foul but contest and the other team has no chance of scoring. It’s always risky to try and get it in on your side of the court ( remember “Bird steals the ballâ€)
These game ending scenarios have to be planned well in advance. Afterall we have a veteran staff.
SD has done a wonderful job and the kids have really responded, but that was a MAJOR brain cramp last night.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-18 09:09 AM - Post#250383
In response to palestra38
That's fair with regards to how they play. But I guarantee you he has run the numbers.
It's like .35 to make times a coin flip to win overtime (.5) coming out at like a .17% chance of losing.
VS.
yale player making both foul shots .7*.7 = .49 times, what, a 25% chance of getting the ball stolen? That seems outrageously high. You'd need it to be higher than 50% because let's say it's 50%, then it's 50% times .49% to get 25%... and then you still have to make a layup... so that's, what, 70%, probably lower. That gets you to 18%.
Now I've left out a bunch of variables, (what if they miss the second shot on purpose), but the point is, it's by no means a terrible strategy.
In fact, the biggest argument I had previously heard against it was that it wasn't sporting, not that it was bad by the numbers.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 09:19 AM - Post#250385
In response to AsiaSunset
Not to add fuel to the ref fire, but KenPom does some nice work to ingest ref info into his box scores. He’s essentially created ref rankings - a metric that tracks how many games you do AND the quality of that game (based on the assumption that the top leagues ARE evaluating these refs and choosing ones that grade the best... thus if you’re doing a bunch of those, you might be pretty good).
The crew from last night had one decent ref, Brandon Cruz (No. 110 with 63 games across a variety of northeastern leagues, which is good for an Ivy ref) and two very lightly traveled ones - Jeff Janosik (No. 291 with 17 games - almost all Ivy/Patriot) and Art Vaulk (No. 396, did only 13 games this season - mainly involving my hometown Jacksonville, FL teams, other ASUN teams and Ivy games).
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32860
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 09:27 AM - Post#250387
In response to Jeff2sf
I agree that it increases the chances of winning, but the chances are pretty overwhelming anyway. What it does is create a devastating downside risk, which ,although small, is not worth the risk in my opinion.
Sort of like getting your pants torn by a crazy raccoon while hiking in the woods (happened to me). No obvious break in the skin, but as the doctor told me--1 in a 1000 chance of developing rabies. But if you get it, you're dead.
I got the shots.
We shouldn't foul there.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Penn v Yale
03-03-18 09:51 AM - Post#250391
In response to Quakers03
We had two part-timers and one full-timer. The part-timers Jeff Janosik and Art Vaulk made by far the bulk of the bad calls.
Looking at their recent history on Kenpom, Brandon Cruz is the guy who seemed to function as the crew chief. He’s worked 163 D-I games the past 3 seasons, including 63 this year. He’s been primarily a MAAC guy, with a smattering of NEC, Ivy, Patriot, America East, and Horizon games.
His only other league game this year was Columbia-Cornell at Levien.
His only other Yale game was with D-III Daniel Webster.
This was his only Penn game in the last three years.
*****
Jeff Janosik has only worked 17 games this year, and two of those were D-I vs. D-III.
Only 52 over the past three years, exclusively Ivy and Patriot.
He worked Princeton-Yale at Jadwin and Penn-Princeton at the Palestra.
Janosik has gone weeks at a time between D-I men’s assignments. Before working back-to-back the last two nights (he did the Loyola-Bucknell game in Lewisburg on Thursday) his last job was February 17. His last job before that was February 3.
In the previous two years he worked 4 other Yale games out of 35 total games. His only Penn game in that time was the Dartmouth debacle at the Palestra last March in the next to last regular season game.
******
Art Vaulk has worked a grand total of 31 D-I games over the past three years, and 6 of those were against non-D-I opponents - 13 this year, only 9 in each of the previous two seasons.
That limited resume is based almost entirely on Atlantic Sun and Southern Conference team games.
Like Janosik, he can go weeks, even a month or more between D-I assignments.
He’s only worked 3 other games involving Ivy teams this year: Cornell@Brown, Penn@Dartmouth, and Bryant@Dartmouth.
Last year he also went to Hanover for Penn@Dartmouth. His other Ivy team games were D-III Mitchell@Yale, and Northeastern-Harvard at Lavietes.
On the turnover assigned to Foreman with 3.4 seconds left, Cruz was closest to it, but on the baseline behind the play. Both players had their backs to him and were between him and the ball when it went out of bounds. I believe it was Vaulk who had the sideline mid court position, and thus the clearest view of who touched the ball last. Cruz appealed to him for the call and he threw up his hands in the “I don’t know†gesture. Cruz, forced to decide, ultimately awarded the ball to Yale, before they went to the useless replay review.
[EDIT: I see Mike jumped in with the basics on this ridiculous crew while I was composing.]
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-03-18 09:57 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Penn v Yale
03-03-18 10:03 AM - Post#250394
In response to mrjames
Not to add fuel to the ref fire, but KenPom does some nice work to ingest ref info into his box scores. He’s essentially created ref rankings - a metric that tracks how many games you do AND the quality of that game (based on the assumption that the top leagues ARE evaluating these refs and choosing ones that grade the best... thus if you’re doing a bunch of those, you might be pretty good).
Yes he’s picked up for a lot of what the late, lamented Statsheet used to track on referees. I think Statsheet may have gone a couple years deeper on history then he has so far, at least as long as they were collating this information.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-03-18 10:03 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Penn v Yale
03-03-18 10:32 AM - Post#250401
In response to Chip Bayers
Just to compare:
Columbia-Dartmouth also had only one experienced guy and two fill-ins. One of their referees was only working his 4th D-I men’s game of the whole season.
The Harvard-Cornell crew had 59, 27, and 10 games of ‘17-‘18 experience between them.
Princeton-Brown was an all half-timer crew of 20, 17, and 19.
The richest universities in the world run a penny-ante basketball league, officiated almost entirely by either farm team tryout candidates or past-their prime guys trying to keep their hand in, neither group seeing enough D-I level basketball at firsthand to give you any belief they are going to be sharp or skilled.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-03-18 10:33 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-03-18 10:42 AM - Post#250403
In response to AsiaSunset
I’m not one to ever complain about the refs, but I do wonder what the ref thought he saw on that last play in real time. It’s not that it couldn’t have gone off of Darnell — it could have. But in real time, when a guy comes and pokes the ball like that, normally he either knocked it out or he fouled. Curious if the ref thought Darnell just fumbled it, or if he actually thought Swain poked it and Darnell remained in contact with it for a moment after the poke (the latter may be what happened, but seems a nearly impossible call to make in real time there).
Not a fun way to go. Unrelated to the call, i’m also curious why we can’t guard Atkinson, while weaker frontcourts can. He undoubtedly had his best collegiate game at the Palestra, and then he was something close to that again last night. Talented kid who will be very good. He just seems to be better against us than anyone else right now, by a significant margin.
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