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Username Post: Yale        (Topic#21261)
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 791

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
03-04-18 09:45 AM - Post#250709    
    In response to SRP

Tigers could have easily finished 8-6 with this year's crew with a bounce of a ball but it is still a far cry from last year's 16-0 which did get several good bounces of the ball -- fine line as to winning and losing. Mitch was the coach then and now. It was not his best season as to some end of the game decisions but it really does not matter if you do not believe in IvyMadness. Top competition last year was better than this year so there was a major differential between 2016 and 2017 squads. If you could not make IvyMadness this year, it says a lot about the team even with some bad bounces.

Why? - there is really only 3 explanations - Weisz, Cook and Miller. The analytics guys could project that the freshmen guys and returning players could fill in most of the gap on offense but at the end of the day, what was missing was the toughness and experience of these three guys. Always watched them come out of the locker room at the beginning of the game and halftime and there was simply a difference this year from last.

Does Stephens and Cannady become Weisz and Cook next year? The record of the team may provide some of the answers.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
03-04-18 10:28 AM - Post#250715    
    In response to PennFan10

I suppose it depends on whether you think that is matchup based or not. Overall for the season, Princeton is close enough to Harvard that they would probably be favored if they were playing at home. Cornell, on the other hand, is over 100 places behind Harvard in Pomeroy (and one of the bottom 100 teams in the country).

I do think Cornell has a puncher’s chance, like I said, but that is for high variance reasons. I suspect that we saw two high variance positive performances from Cornell against Harvard already, and they still lost both.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
03-04-18 10:43 AM - Post#250720    
    In response to bradley

There may be something intangible that explains the difference. However, I thought the base 5 of Weisz, cook, Stephens, bell, and Cannady was such a difficult matchup because of its interchangeability. The group could defend bigs despite giving up size, and they basically always had at least two killer matchup advantages on the other end. And then they could throw in Miller with 4 of them to protect the middle.

I think this year Henderson never figured out the right mix around the remaining 3 guys. The most experienced returnees, Brennan and Young, have obvious strengths, but also some limitations that didn’t seem to fit. The freshmen showed some flashes, but were up and down. Stephens is a very versatile player, but this year it felt like they were plugging holes with him rather than playing to an advantage. There was a lot of juggling of lineups, and maybe that was a problem in and of itself, but it also could indicate that the winning mix wasn’t there.

Interesting similarities to ‘16-‘17 Penn. High Pomeroy OOC that would suggest a better Ivy season. Big in conference losing streak. Ended with losing record in conference despite easily having a top 4 Pomeroy (Princeton actually finished ahead of Yale in pomeroy). This suggests some bad luck may have been at play (also could be evidence of the intangibles issue). That similarity to Penn could provide some hope for getting it together next year.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
03-04-18 11:35 AM - Post#250730    
    In response to bradley

I agreed with your analysis re:2016 team until I looked at the stats. Miller was far less a factor last year than the year before. He certainly had his moments, I grant you. The key to last season was the half court team defense when Henderson went "small." Stephens, Cook, Weisz, Bell and Cannady made up the most effective quintet, especially in the second half of the Ivy season. This year's team turned out to be shockingly inadequate on defense. Jaelin Llewellyn will be very good but can't be much better than Bell at his best. Unless we can get somebody who can defend the Lewises, Brodeurs and Gettingses we will remain in the Ivy wilderness. It was not unusual for Henderson to use 5 or 6 DIFFERENT combinations in the first 10 minutes this season. I hope that can be worked out early next year. This team was picked third preseason and that's about where it SHOULD have finished.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 791

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
03-04-18 12:26 PM - Post#250736    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

If one would rely solely on the stats, you are correct but as SRP has pointed out the turning point last season is when Miller stood up and declared that a line is being drawn in the sand as to playing intense defense for the remainder of the year and they did. By all accounts including Coach H, it changed the direction of the season. One of the reasons that I have issues with solely relying on stats but that is a whole different story.

Coach under utilize Miller throughout most of his career particularly in his senior season. It hurt the Tigers in non-conference play but it was interesting that Miller was on the Court at the beginning and at the end of the ND game and he made a significant contribution. Coach should have played him more to help out Stephens on Bonzie Colson.

You are right about next year although part of the solution is to stop playing Arirguzoh five minutes a game as he is their best interior defender by far. Also, one of this year's freshmen needs to step up on defensive front -- may be DesRosiers or Barnes as Tigers need to get more athletic on D.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
03-04-18 12:43 PM - Post#250738    
    In response to bradley

With respect I am not here to knock Pete Miller but to suggest that the season turned around because of something he said is just nonsense. Miller played about 1 minute at harvard,the biggest win (to that point) in the Henderson era. The season turned around when Henderson put Stephens in the starting lineup in December. He did that because Caruso decided to leave the team. The Ivy DPOY was not a starter two weeks before the Ivy season began. Miller played hard all the time but he had his limitations. And I believe that this year's team could have used him!

 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1478
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 67
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
03-04-18 01:42 PM - Post#250745    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

  • JadwinGeorge Said:
Jaelin Llewellyn will be very good but can't be much better than Bell at his best.



I love Amir Bell--shoots the 3-ball, pull up J, and slashes to the hoop. But drive and dish he does not.

I am hoping J-LLLL is a drive and dish guy, because with our 3 point shooters, he could make everyone better.


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3516

Reg: 02-04-06
03-04-18 01:59 PM - Post#250747    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

I generally don't like counting on miracle freshmen to save the day. And even if Llewelyn looks like Ben Simmons on offense, we need Chris Paul on defense. And Amir was maybe the second-best defender on the team.

IMO, the development or lack of same of Much, Desrosiers, Aririguzoh, and Gladson will have a lot to do with how the Tigers perform next season. Guarding without fouling, strength in the post, rotating to help properly, etc. And for the love of God, plan for and practice a variety of zones. Even Coach K has been pragmatic about that, and it's helped Duke a lot.

 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1478
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 67
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
03-04-18 02:16 PM - Post#250748    
    In response to SRP

Agreed--I wasn't proposing J-4L to save the day. Just that there is an opening to be better than Bell over the arc of his career.

As for next year, I'm hoping Gladson can show us what he can do free of injury. He could take a big step forward. Also Barnes may show some of his talent.



 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
03-04-18 02:37 PM - Post#250753    
    In response to SRP

We needed "miracle freshmen" to save the day this year and it did not work out. DeRosiers, the next Ian Hummer, turned out to be the best but none of them defended particularly well. Given the attributes of this team, and assuming Llewellyn can defend as well as Bell (a huge assumption) I agree that the time has come for some zones for more than two or three possessions. Is there someone on the staff who can teach zones?

 
umbrellaman 
Senior
Posts: 384
umbrellaman
Reg: 11-21-04
03-04-18 06:08 PM - Post#250825    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

Much looked like he was making the leap right before conference play - anybody have a sense of what happened? Defensive woes?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3516

Reg: 02-04-06
03-06-18 09:17 PM - Post#251140    
    In response to umbrellaman

Wish I knew. He's a stud IMO.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
03-06-18 09:29 PM - Post#251143    
    In response to SRP

He has terrific instincts and can shoot very well, but is not very mobile. At the end he played the 5 but that will not be his role long term. Don't know why he did not leave the bench this weekend. This team has holes to fill an Bell"s leaving creates a bigger one. Gladson is a key factor if he can play 25 minutes and defend, both unknowns at this point. I don't see any bigs coming in this year

 
westcoast 
Freshman
Posts: 87

Reg: 03-08-16
03-06-18 09:52 PM - Post#251154    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

Much, Bramlage, and Reynoso-Avila were injured and were not in uniform for the final weekend's games.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
03-06-18 09:56 PM - Post#251155    
    In response to westcoast

Thanks. I did not know that

 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1478
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 67
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
03-06-18 10:13 PM - Post#251157    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

  • JadwinGeorge Said:
DeRosiers, the next Ian Hummer



By Stewart Suss' ratings, Hummer and DeRosier had almost identical freshman years in minutes and ranking.








 
Eric Von Zipper 
Freshman
Posts: 69

Age: 65
Reg: 11-11-17
03-06-18 10:23 PM - Post#251161    
    In response to westcoast

Much has been bothered by a sore hamstring and hip flexor issues. He didn't practice all last week.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
03-06-18 10:27 PM - Post#251164    
    In response to Eric Von Zipper

The "next Ian Hummer" comparison is from Mitch Henderson preseason. I hope he's right.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3516

Reg: 02-04-06
03-07-18 01:39 PM - Post#251218    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

I think Much is plenty mobile offensively. He has a great jab-step and go move where he dribbles right past his defender. But, like many of our players, he lacks lateral quickness on D, compounded by inexperience in his positioning. The latter can be remedied.

 
whitakk 
Junior
Posts: 214

Age: 27
Reg: 11-11-14
03-07-18 02:10 PM - Post#251247    
    In response to SRP

Llewellyn will be critical to Princeton's offense out of the gate. If he isn't good right away, Princeton's offense will be even more stagnant next year (Cannady had a 10% assist rate, Stephens 9%, nobody else above 15%). And Cannady doesn't usually bring the ball up against pressure so Llewellyn will probably get that role too.

 
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