Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Yale 3 03-08-18 10:54 AM - Post#251366
In response to penn nation
Look, Mike James gets a heck of a lot more right than he does wrong.
But on this one issue and at this point of the season, I think it's fair to note (and for him to acknowledge) that this can no longer be dismissed as a fluke.
And that will be the case no matter what happens this weekend.
Hey Penn Nation, does the guy who flips a coin 15 times and it comes up heads 15 times have a skill in flipping heads? Cus if we line up 350 DI teams, some teams are going to do really well in 3 point percentage throughout the year. It's just going to be the case.
Now... there may actually be a skill here. But it's just as valid to talk about the coin flips, or if we had everyone on this site employ an investment strategy, someone's probably gonna consistently beat the market. Is that because they have a great system or because of basic random chance?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Yale 3 03-08-18 11:10 AM - Post#251368
In response to Jeff2sf
Are you denying that finishing 3rd in NCAA Division 1 3 point defense is statistically significant? And what are the odds of all those heads in a row?
While you can call anything "luck", you turn statistical analysis on its head by pronouncing this a random result without more than the analogy to coin flips.
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 586
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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Re: Yale 3 03-08-18 11:53 AM - Post#251373
In response to palestra38
I bet if Penn finished 3rd to last in 3pt defense Jeff would not claim that random.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Yale 3 03-08-18 12:02 PM - Post#251375
In response to Jeff2sf
Jeff:
It's pretty clear that Penn has placed a priority on challenging the 3 point line defensively this year. The fact that Penn is now #2 in the country might be a fluke, but the fact that Penn has done a good job in this area should not be dismissed as the result of a coin flip.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Yale 3 03-08-18 12:28 PM - Post#251381
In response to Charlie Fog
I don't see how anyone could say Penn's 3PT defense isn't an incredible accomplishment. A shade under 30% for an entire season is insane.
And it's clear that there is a purpose in it. Not only are opponent shooting percentages low, but more importantly, opponents aren't getting to take many of them (33% of FG attempts which is 35th nationally). Also, it sounds like Penn is doing a fantastic job coaching rotations such that its defenders don't run out on guys it wants taking threes.
The tradeoff, obviously, is how well you can control what the opponent does when you've committed so much to not allowing it to take that shot. Over the final month of the season, Penn played the other three teams in the Ivy tourney four times and allowed over 1pt per possession to each (and over 1.1 in three of those). The three point defense in three of those games was very, very good (5-for-15 at Harvard, 6-for-21 at Cornell, 4-for-17 at Yale). In those three games though, opponents shot 51%, 64% and 54% from two. Meanwhile, the difference between a 29.8% 3PT% allowed and a national average 35% allowed is about 1 made three per game.
One of the reasons why the three point shot ends up appearing as a lottery is because there are reasonable limits as to what teams will do to stop it. As we've discussed before, I think we all agree that you *could* affect 3PT percentage if you just sold out and were willing to concede easy layups and dunks to ensure no one got a clean look. But that's crazy. So, what we tend to see is that, within the bounds of reasonable defense, it's hard to affect opponent 3PT shooting, because to do so exposes way too much elsewhere.
Penn may be starting to experience just that such that allowing opponents to shoot 35% from three and make that extra three per game might be a good tradeoff relative to getting gashed from two. We'll see, Steve's been making adjustments all season, so I can't fathom this has escaped him.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Yale 3 03-08-18 01:18 PM - Post#251386
In response to mrjames
Mr James,
Great points, and besides the fact Steve has made is abundantly clear publicly he is using a lot of analytics (so you are right he knows all this) he is also trying to 1-limit the number of 3's teams are attempting 2-limit the number of assisted baskets (many of which are threes off of helping on penetration). There is a reason players like Choh and Atkinson (as well as Lewis) have had career best games vs the Quakers. I'ts been part of their strategy. They don't double the post and they try to stay in front of penetration without collapsing off 3 pt shooters. They have been doing it all year.
I am sure the Max decision to score more vs defend better. That trade off has seemed evident over the past month of the season.
Edited by PennFan10 on 03-08-18 01:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1878
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-08-18 04:17 PM - Post#251430
In response to PennFan10
I subscribe to mrjames' interpretation on this. The overall landscape of Div. 1 3pt defense percentage may show weak signals for repeatability and overplaying the 3, but it is simply wrong to imply that you can't defend the 3 better than others with skill and intent and have an influence on the mean and standard deviation of your outcomes. The sacrifice of doing so may be too much for most Div 1 since the benefit is essentially 1 less three per game.
I find it very very unlikely that Penn was just the lucky team that flipped heads with a completely random variable with a completely consistent distribution curve of 3 pt defense across all Div.1 teams throughout the season. This just can't be the case. Sorry, Jeff2SF. I believe in statistics too, but this stretches probabilities too far.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-08-18 05:12 PM - Post#251440
In response to Penndemonium
yeah i dunno. I'm "sure" that they were trying to prevent 3s. I think they probably had something to do with the lower 3% rate. But I'm not as convinced of that and I guess got my hackles up that PennNation had the chutzpah to call out mike james.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-08-18 05:20 PM - Post#251441
In response to Jeff2sf
I rarely call him out on anything--most of the time I'm either applauding him or seeking his expertise.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-18 05:32 PM - Post#251444
In response to penn nation
For me - even with the 3rd best 3PT% D in the nation, the far better thing about the defense is the 3PT/FGA rate. Because that just limits the possible damage even if an opponent were to get hot. An opponent shooting something like 7-for-15 is probably better for you than an opponent shooting 15-for-40 even though the former make rate is much higher.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-08-18 05:57 PM - Post#251447
In response to mrjames
Well that is what SD has said they are trying to do, limit the number of 3's teams take, so they don't get killed when they make a high percentage.
Only 1 team all season has made double digit 3's vs Penn and the Quakers won that game. (Harvard at the Palestra). Interestingly, the 2 games with the fewest attempted 3's were both losses for Penn (LaSalle 13, Toledo 14).
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-08-18 07:06 PM - Post#251458
In response to PennFan10
Makai Mason is officially out for this weekend.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-08-18 07:40 PM - Post#251459
In response to PennFan10
I'm 90% sorry to hear that, and 10% received. I hope he does well at Baylor, and makes it to the pros.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-08-18 07:52 PM - Post#251460
In response to mrjames
It really is uncanny--on both sides of the ball. We used to be a team that took poor 2 pt shots. Now, at least in games where we play well, a graphic depiction of our 2 point shots is quite instructive.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4438
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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03-09-18 06:12 PM - Post#251607
In response to penn nation
Right now I'm seeing Penn -7 and Harvard -6. Seems Harvard should be favored by more & Penn should be favored by fewer. I know Penn has "HCA", but still... If I were a betting man, Harvard would look awfully good only giving up 6.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-09-18 07:57 PM - Post#251612
In response to Cvonvorys
I would take both favorites and lay the points
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-18 08:56 PM - Post#251618
In response to Cvonvorys
The opens were Penn -6 and Harvard -6.5.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
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03-09-18 11:20 PM - Post#251626
In response to mrjames
My dad had no power last week so I was keeping him updated on the game. Because I'm a masochist I went back and counted how many times I incredulously remarked about the officiating. From 7:22 pm to 7:38 I counted SIX texts about calls that went against Penn. Six...I respect Mike Jensen, but to say that Penn fans in attendance were overreacting is just plain wrong. It only got worse in the 2nd half. I know I need to move on, but I want some kind of answer as to why refs with such little experience were scheduled to work a Friday night. Unless the storm came into play, there is no excuse, and it (along with our play) cost us a 1 seed and solo title. When you lose by one, any single call going the right way changes the game.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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03-10-18 03:03 PM - Post#251692
In response to Quakers03
The Harvard game was close for a while but it's all over but the shouting now. They will be a tough match up tomorrow.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 6997
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-10-18 03:19 PM - Post#251693
In response to OldBig5
Cruz, the experienced but passive guy who helped turn that Yale game into such an officiating disaster, was rewarded by the league today with an assignment to the Cornell-Harvard game.
Unsurprisingly, this crew ended the first half with a horrifically blown call on the final play.
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