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Username Post: Bracketology watch        (Topic#21291)
Streamers 
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Streamers
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03-07-18 11:26 AM - Post#251188    

Lunardi has Harvard as a set (non play-in) 16 against Xavier

CBS (Palm) has moved them up to the 15 in the same bracket against Purdue

 
penn nation 
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Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-07-18 11:48 AM - Post#251196    
    In response to Streamers

A play-in is no longer "in play".

Well, unless Yale or Cornell get the bid, and even then they still might escape with a regular 16.

Edited by penn nation on 03-07-18 11:48 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
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Re: Bracketology watch
03-07-18 11:49 AM - Post#251197    
    In response to Streamers

Neither Harvard nor Penn is likely to be a 16, and if they meet in the final, that's a lock.

Penn may or may not get that Dayton win in Quad2 (it's right on the line), but with two wins in the Ivy Tourney, its RPI will be in the 110 range and its SOR will be Top 100. There are already at least 6 teams with worse profiles regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

For Harvard, two more wins would push its RPI to right around 100 and a win over Penn would give it a Quad2 win. That would lock it into the 15 line. If the path is Cornell-Yale, that leaves the door open for the committee to do something silly, but likely Harvard would still escape ahead of LIU Brooklyn, Southland champ, SWAC champ, MEAC Champ, Radford and one of Lipscomb or Iona.

Yale and Cornell would both be off to Dayton for sure.

 
PennFan10 
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03-07-18 11:53 AM - Post#251198    
    In response to mrjames

Mr James,

What's the ceiling for Penn/Harvard in your view? 15 seed?

 
mrjames 
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03-07-18 12:08 PM - Post#251203    
    In response to PennFan10

Reasonably, yes. If UMBC and Colgate pick off UVM and Bucknell, then that opens a window to a 14 for sure. I think we need to see three more upsets in the conf tourneys (some like UVM and Bucknell, just one team going down, other confs we'd need to see the top 2 or 3 seeds go down) before we could start dreaming on an Ivy 14.

 
Streamers 
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03-07-18 12:14 PM - Post#251205    
    In response to PennFan10

Mike (as usual on this subject) has it exactly right. Frankly, 16-15 means a lot less to me than 15-14 does. I'd almost rather have a play-in 16 than a set one as it provides a winnable game. This year more than most, IMHO, the gap between the projected 2's and 3's is pretty big.

I thought before Yale 2 Penn had a real shot at a 14 if they had won out. Now I think Penn or Harvard will need some significant S-curve good fortune to land a 14.

 
penn nation 
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03-07-18 12:28 PM - Post#251209    
    In response to Streamers

Penn is not getting a 14, period, barring a string of some ridiculous results in other conference tourneys.

Harvard has a better shot at it, also still somewhat minimal. This is mainly because it would have 2 additional non-home victories (and potentially one additional 'road' victory [vs a quality opponent, to boot]) that would bump it up more would 2 additional Penn "home" victories.

 
PennFan10 
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Reg: 02-15-15
03-07-18 01:00 PM - Post#251213    
    In response to penn nation

  • penn nation Said:
Penn is not getting a 14, period, barring a string of some ridiculous results in other conference tourneys.

Harvard has a better shot at it, also still somewhat minimal. This is mainly because it would have 2 additional non-home victories (and potentially one additional 'road' victory [vs a quality opponent, to boot]) that would bump it up more would 2 additional Penn "home" victories.



I'll take the other side of zero for a 14 seed. It's remote, but it' not negligible


 
Streamers 
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03-07-18 01:22 PM - Post#251215    
    In response to PennFan10

I agree Harvard has a better shot. Keep in mind the Committee can be a bit fickle at times, defying the numbers and moving teams around to create matchups they favor for reasons of their own.

 
mrjames 
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03-07-18 01:40 PM - Post#251219    
    In response to Streamers

I'm also curious how/when team sheets are updated on that final day. If Harvard and Penn meet, would the team sheets even reflect who wins that game? Would the decision already be made on seeding? In that case, Harvard picking up a Quad2 win over Penn probably would be pretty irrelevant and thus Penn would probably have the better profile when the decision is made...

 
penn nation 
Professor
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Reg: 12-02-04
03-07-18 01:43 PM - Post#251223    
    In response to mrjames

Wasn't the reason to have the Sunday men's game at noon based on accommodating the NCAA Selection Committee? If none of this matters, why not start the game at a more reasonable time?

  • mrjames Said:
I'm also curious how/when team sheets are updated on that final day. If Harvard and Penn meet, would the team sheets even reflect who wins that game? Would the decision already be made on seeding? In that case, Harvard picking up a Quad2 win over Penn probably would be pretty irrelevant and thus Penn would probably have the better profile when the decision is made...




 
PennFan10 
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03-07-18 02:02 PM - Post#251240    
    In response to penn nation

well, the NCAA will know there are only 2 options and they can select seeding on an either/or basis. Doesn't matter, as they will know before they release things, but they can clearly decide
If Harvard, then X, and if Penn then Y for seeding. Or they may say,"doesn't matter" Harvard/Penn is an XX seed". None of that is too complicated

 
Streamers 
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03-07-18 02:44 PM - Post#251256    
    In response to PennFan10

I know from prior years that they make changes to the top seeds based on same day results. How that relates to the bottom seeds, I've always wondered. I do strongly suspect PF10 is correct: they have scenarios mapped out in advance that adjust for certain combinations of results the final weekend. I actually think the bottom seeds may be impacted to some extent because they tend to 'arrange' certain matchups and the way they emphasize putting the top seeds close to home.

 
PennFan10 
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Reg: 02-15-15
03-07-18 02:50 PM - Post#251259    
    In response to Streamers

Harvard played in New Mexico one year and then at UNC (vs UNC) and almost beat them. Who knows where the IL1 goes? Charlotte? Detroit? San Diego?

 
Streamers 
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03-07-18 02:58 PM - Post#251262    
    In response to PennFan10

Like I said, it will all depend on where they want the higher seed to play.

 
penn nation 
Professor
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Reg: 12-02-04
Bracketology watch
03-08-18 10:06 PM - Post#251469    
    In response to penn nation

Middle Tennessee St just got upset in the QF of its tourney.

That was rather unexpected and will help Harvard or Penn if they make it in.

  • penn nation Said:
Penn is not getting a 14, period, barring a string of some ridiculous results in other conference tourneys.

Harvard has a better shot at it, also still somewhat minimal. This is mainly because it would have 2 additional non-home victories (and potentially one additional 'road' victory [vs a quality opponent, to boot]) that would bump it up more would 2 additional Penn "home" victories.




Edited by penn nation on 03-08-18 10:08 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-08-18 10:39 PM - Post#251471    
    In response to penn nation

In that tourney, the top 3 seeds and probably top 4 would all need to lose to help, sadly. WKU and ODU will definitely be ahead. Marshall probably would be as well, IIRC.

Strong conference. MTSU deserves to be in based on Strength of Record metrics (true resume metric) and Quad1 (3-3). They’re a mid, though, so they’ll probably somehow be left out.

 
penn nation 
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Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-08-18 10:52 PM - Post#251472    
    In response to mrjames

ODU having some trouble so far with #10 seed La Tech.

And no-one is really there, either, deep in the heart of Texas.

 
Streamers 
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03-09-18 09:17 AM - Post#251492    
    In response to penn nation

Anyone notice the cocktail party-sized gathering that was present for the American Conference to watch Temple-Tulane last night?

 
palestra38 
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
03-09-18 09:17 AM - Post#251493    
    In response to Streamers

The AAC is a travesty of a mockery of a sham.

 
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