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Username Post: Bracketology watch        (Topic#21291)
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 812

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
03-09-18 09:31 AM - Post#251508    
    In response to mrjames

As you know, big difference as to likelihood of pulling off an upset if a team is a #14 seed vs #15 or #16 seed. 16 seed basically zero %, 15 seed 6% and #14 seed 15%. Penn may be the only team that might receive a #14 seed but it will take some breaks. If Yale or Cornell wins, obviously #16 seed is awaiting them.

Will be a tough uphill battle for any IL team this year based on the seed.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5278

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Bracketology watch
03-09-18 10:19 AM - Post#251522    
    In response to bradley

I don't think any Ivy has a shot at a 14, but the only path I could see would be Harvard getting there. Penn now has no Quad2 wins. Since the Ivy Tournament counts as home for Penn and Penn is projected to stay in the Top 135 with a loss in the final to Harvard, Harvard could still pick up a Quad2 win. That, combined with its much, much better SOS (which the committee likes to reward), competitiveness in all its other Quad2 games and a higher ceiling on RPI (could touch 100) should put it in (very slightly) better shape.

Now, even that, IMO, is not enough to be a serious contender for a 14.

Most likely scenario, given the Ivy Tourney odds, is for the league to get a 15 and for the rep to be Penn.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1191

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Bracketology watch
03-09-18 11:11 AM - Post#251530    
    In response to palestra38

Anyone notice how poor tickets sales are for the men's games on Saturday? Despite lower prices, looks like about 4000 tickets are still available. If one assumes that almost all of the 100 level went to allocations, bands, players, etc. it looks like less than half of true 'public' tix have sold.

Do we only need an area half the size of the Palestra?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-09-18 11:11 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19730

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 11:19 AM - Post#251533    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The problem is that (1) the schools are on break and today's students would rather give up an arm than pass on Spring Break and (2) even if they were in session, the students don't care about Ivy basketball. Only the fanatics care, and there are virtually no fanatics from Cornell or Yale.

I will note, however, that the Yale-Harvard playoff at the Palestra was a near sellout (a lot of Penn fans, including myself, went to that game), so I just think a lot of people will walk up.

One of the things that I think hurts the attendance is that the big donors got all the best seats, not the season ticket holders. While I understand the policy reasons, you are saying something about the loyalty to season ticket holders when you put them up in the rafters.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1191

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-09-18 12:43 PM - Post#251550    
    In response to palestra38

So much for an Ivy League event and gathering if students aren't interested in attending and some schools don't have a following.

The arguments for a tournament (at the Palestra) seem to be:
- largest arena (a geographic outlier that still has almost 50% of its tickets available less than 24hrs before tipoff)
- an opportunity for Ivy Leaguer's to come together (but not for some schools that don't care and, generally, not for students who are on break but don't spectate anyway. Also, there is no centralized location or social events so we all just have to make our own plans in the city)
- to avoid a top team missing out on the pay for play CIT or CBI

Awesome!



 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11816

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 12:48 PM - Post#251552    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
The problem is that (1) the schools are on break



So what does it tell you that usually at least one of the Penn-Princeton games is during break, and that the IL tourney at the Palestra is being held during another one?


Edited by penn nation on 03-09-18 12:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19730

Reg: 11-21-04
03-09-18 01:14 PM - Post#251555    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Naw, it's all to sell the Ivy Brand on ESPN before what will appear to be a noisy and raucous crowd at the Cathedral of Basketball.

All the other stuff is lip service. This is a TV show.

 
Go Green 
Masters Student
Posts: 450

Age: 47
Reg: 04-22-10
03-09-18 02:02 PM - Post#251567    
    In response to bradley

  • bradley Said:
16 seed basically zero %



But its 100% if the #1 seed loses their two best players to ACL tears the week before. See Harvard v. Stanford (1998).



 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19730

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 04:15 PM - Post#251594    
    In response to mrjames

Isn't it possible that the Joe's win will move up in luster with the Hawks kicking George Mason butt today?

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11816

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 04:37 PM - Post#251600    
    In response to palestra38

That won't help much, but beating URI will.

Obviously if they go all the way to the NCAAs that will help Harvard/Penn's profile, if either makes it to the tourney.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5278

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-09-18 05:04 PM - Post#251605    
    In response to penn nation

Even winning out would leave St. Joe’s shy of the Top 100, so no Quad2 help there. Given that, probably not much help aside from the marginal bumps in the overarching metrics.

Would have been nice, because it’d add a Quad2 win for both Harvard and Penn.

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 887
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 05:15 PM - Post#251609    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

You would like to think that those who kept insisting a tournament would drum up intense fan interest would acknowledge, just maybe, they were wrong. But you know how far that goes in this era.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11816

Reg: 12-02-04
Bracketology watch
03-09-18 05:34 PM - Post#251611    
    In response to mrjames

If they somehow beat both URI and then potentially St. Bonnie's, that would be wins against two Top 50--heck, two Top 25--teams.

  • mrjames Said:
Even winning out would leave St. Joe’s shy of the Top 100, so no Quad2 help there. Given that, probably not much help aside from the marginal bumps in the overarching metrics.

Would have been nice, because it’d add a Quad2 win for both Harvard and Penn.




Edited by penn nation on 03-09-18 05:35 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 812

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 07:05 PM - Post#251614    
    In response to sparman

I remember that one of the arguing points of the IvyMadness was that it would increase fan interest. As you point out, at least so far, that assertion has not occurred. The other arguing points, i.e. two bids, assist recruiting, keep all teams playing hard to the end of the season, etc. etc. are simply subjective or inaccurate although in fairness, we should know better after five years of IvyMadness.

So far, the only "real" tanggible benefit was that the Tigers got a #12 vs. #13 seed last year in all likelihood. This year, there is a possibility that IL Women will get 2 bids if the Tigers get knocked out although the Tigers will drop from a projected #12 seed if they lose in IvyMadness. It would be enlightening if a supporter of IvyMadness could provide a "real" tangible benefit so far besides the above rather than mumbo jumbo. I guess that one could argue that the enthusiasm of Quaker and Lion fans last year on this web site for the 4th seed could be an arguement although I am not sure if the school communities really cared last year. This year, nobody was getting too worked up about being a 4th seed especially Tiger fans.

Someone criticized Banghart for her comments about the Tournament. Perhaps, she simply has not been drinking the Koolaid.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5278

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 07:38 PM - Post#251617    
    In response to penn nation

That’s great for St. Joe’s, but doesn’t really help its opponents. On their team sheets St. Joe’s remains a Quad3 win (unless you beat them at St. Joe’s, in which case this late run may end up making that a Quad2 win).

As for the tournament, my thoughts are pretty well-documented, but for those wanting to factor in the two-bid perspective, I’d save that judgment until we see this league that is currently last in the nation in experience with five sophomores that have received first-team honors plays through to the top of the cycle. If they can’t crescendo to a strong two-bid chance then, it’s hard to imagine a better reasonable opportunity.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 812

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Bracketology watch
03-09-18 09:44 PM - Post#251623    
    In response to mrjames

Just a guess but Harvard in the final. Not sure if it will be Penn or Yale. Good luck to all teams although one would hope that Harvard or Penn represents the IL at the Big Dance.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5278

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-10-18 07:37 PM - Post#251748    
    In response to bradley

Looks like we’re gonna come up one upset short of the 14 line as an expectation, but into the range now where I’d be a lot more stunned to see a 16 than the rep getting a 14. I don’t think the committee puts a ton of diligence into the 13-16 lines, so maybe that craziness will work out in our favor, but I feel like we’re a 15 with upside rather than a 15 with potential downside risk.

 
Chip Bayers 
Postdoc
Posts: 4802
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-18 07:49 PM - Post#251750    
    In response to mrjames

Yeah, it’s never a true curve except at the very top and very bottom, once they start moving teams around to avoid some of their early round no-no’s. And when they try to screw mid-majors out of revenue by seeding them as first round matchups to reduce their potential aggregate win totals.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5278

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-18 08:30 PM - Post#251763    
    In response to Chip Bayers

Also, not so sure there’s going to be a lot of difference between the 1/2/3 lines this year. The “easiest” team of the lot might be Xavier, which looks to get a 1-seed.

 
Big R&B Truth 
Senior
Posts: 394
Big R&B Truth
Loc: Back Waters of New Englan...
Reg: 11-23-04
Re: Bracketology watch
03-10-18 09:12 PM - Post#251770    
    In response to bradley

The REAL tangible benefit is that the entire league now plays meaningful games in February as opposed to 3/4 of the league just playing out the last half of the season. Did you see the video of how excited the Cornell team was after they found out that they made the tournament when Yale beat Princeton last week? Sure Cornell had little chance of beating Harvard, but that video alone should end all arguments about the tournament. Perhaps you forget that Ivy sports are suppose to be about the student-athletes themselves and not the fans.


  • bradley Said:
I remember that one of the arguing points of the IvyMadness was that it would increase fan interest. As you point out, at least so far, that assertion has not occurred. The other arguing points, i.e. two bids, assist recruiting, keep all teams playing hard to the end of the season, etc. etc. are simply subjective or inaccurate although in fairness, we should know better after five years of IvyMadness.

So far, the only "real" tanggible benefit was that the Tigers got a #12 vs. #13 seed last year in all likelihood. This year, there is a possibility that IL Women will get 2 bids if the Tigers get knocked out although the Tigers will drop from a projected #12 seed if they lose in IvyMadness. It would be enlightening if a supporter of IvyMadness could provide a "real" tangible benefit so far besides the above rather than mumbo jumbo. I guess that one could argue that the enthusiasm of Quaker and Lion fans last year on this web site for the 4th seed could be an arguement although I am not sure if the school communities really cared last year. This year, nobody was getting too worked up about being a 4th seed especially Tiger fans.

Someone criticized Banghart for her comments about the Tournament. Perhaps, she simply has not been drinking the Koolaid.




 
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