BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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03-10-18 11:34 PM - Post#251802
In response to Bison137
Marshall is Doug Birdsong's alma mater...his other herd of bison join the field!
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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NCAA Seeding - Bracketology 03-10-18 11:43 PM - Post#251806
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
It has been 31 years since Marshall last made the field. Their most recent appearance (1987) was in the same year as Bucknell's first appearance. They were a 13 seed that year and lost by 16 points to TCU. They have never won an NCAA game, but did win some NIT games in 1967.
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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NCAA Seeding - Bracketology 03-11-18 01:14 AM - Post#251821
In response to Bison137
Saturday night Lunardi: Bucknell #13 vs Arizona in San Diego.
These projected locations have been steady all week long for both ESPN and CBS:
--14s in Dallas (x2), Wichita, Nashville
--12s/13s in Boise (x2), San Diego (x2)
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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03-11-18 09:39 AM - Post#251839
In response to bison63
Here is how I would put our probabilities right now...
Seed #:
13 Seed - 60%
14 Seed - 35%
12 Seed - 3%
15 Seed - 2%
Note - I can't see us being a 12 of 15 on the S curve, but the Committee can bump teams up or down a spot to accommodate geographies / match ups, which bring them into play.
Location:
San Diego - 30% (Friday)
Boise - 25% (Thursday)
Dallas - 20% (Thursday)
Wichita - 15% (Thursday)
Nashville - 8% (Friday)
All Others (Pitt, Charlotte, Detroit) - 2%
It seems like all four 4 seeds may wind up in San Diego and Boise, as there will be no West Coast Top 3 seeds who will want those sites. Thus, if we are a 13 (or 12), we are headed west. (Caveat, if Wichita State hangs onto a 3, they could go to one of those sites as they can't play in Wichita)
The eight 1/2 seeds will likely go as follows:
Pittsburgh (2)
Charlotte (2)
Detroit (Likely 2)
Wichita (1)
Nashville (Likely 1)
That means the 3 seeds are likely destined for Dallas (2), Wichita (1), and Nashville (1), although it is possible Detroit could get 1.
Probability of Facing Teams:
Wichita State (20%)
Arizona (15%)
Auburn (15%)
Tennessee (10%)
Texas Tech (10%)
Michigan (10%)
Kentucky (5%)
Michigan State (5%)
Gonzaga (5%)
Field (5%)
The one caveat is that if Kentucky beats Tennessee today, they may solidify a 4 seed and become a more likely opponent (not good). With a loss, Tennessee could also become a bit more likely, as they may go from a high 3 to a low 3 / high 4 seed.
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dirtynine
Sophomore
Posts: 127
Reg: 02-01-06
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03-11-18 09:47 AM - Post#251843
In response to BUFan
awesome work! Thanks for this.
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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NCAA Seeding - Bracketology 03-11-18 09:50 AM - Post#251844
In response to dirtynine
ESPN moved us back to a 14, vs Tennessee in Nashville
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: NCAA Seeding - Bracketology 03-11-18 09:55 AM - Post#251845
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
ESPN moved us back to a 14, vs Tennessee in Nashville
I'm looking at ESPN (Lunardi) right now, and I see Bucknell as a 13 playing in San Diego vs Arizona. Not sure I like the prospect of playing against 7-1 DeAndre Ayton, who is getting better every game. Ayton is likely ineligible but it won't help the Bison cause when Arizona has to forfeit the game 18 months from now.
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bison75
Masters Student
Posts: 487
Reg: 01-26-06
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03-11-18 09:59 AM - Post#251846
In response to Bison137
Palm still has us as a 14, playing Michigan State in Wichita.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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03-11-18 10:04 AM - Post#251848
In response to bison75
Note that both Lunardi and Palm have Marshall seeded ahead of the Bison. They have a worse RPI but more good wins.
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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03-11-18 10:07 AM - Post#251849
In response to bison75
Sorry...I think I was looking at a tab I had opened yesterday.
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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NCAA Seeding - Bracketology 03-11-18 10:18 AM - Post#251854
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
Palm had moved us to a 13, but surprisingly moved us back last night. Frankly, I think we give all of these guys too much credit. Especially in terms of placing 13s vs. 14s, I think they give very little thought
If we get Arizona, the plus side is that the FBI could choose to drop a bombshell tomorrow morning when college basketball is on everyone's mind that could cause a lot of distractions in Arizona
Edited by BUFan on 03-11-18 10:18 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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DoCtoR62
Masters Student
Posts: 463
Reg: 05-18-08
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03-11-18 10:23 AM - Post#251855
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
Appears the difference b/w CBS & ESPN is Charleston, who is a 13-seed in Palm's brackets and a 14 in Lunardi's. Better RPI than Bucknell, but a much weaker strength of schedule. The non-conference SOS is significantly worse.
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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03-11-18 10:53 AM - Post#251860
In response to DoCtoR62
It will be what it will be. I'm rooting for a Friday game so that I can work a half day and watch hoops the rest.
Mrs. Bison89 booked dinner plans on Friday evening with another couple. After 21 years, she should know better! (I'm starting to feel a sore throat coming on that might lead to a fever at 6pm on Friday.)
New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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BUFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
Reg: 01-24-06
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03-11-18 11:11 AM - Post#251867
In response to Bison89
As long as we aren’t at 3 pm on Thursday when I have a meeting I can’t miss, I’ll be happy!
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BisonRoadWarrior
Professor
Posts: 5203
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
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NCAA Seeding - Bracketology 03-11-18 11:49 AM - Post#251872
In response to BUFan
Now Lunardi says 13 vs West Virginia in Boise but that won’t happen per seeding guidelines that rule out rematches from last two years.
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BisonKid
Sophomore
Posts: 154
Reg: 01-26-06
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03-11-18 12:40 PM - Post#251888
In response to BisonRoadWarrior
I'm banking on a #13 seed based on the fact that we were #13 last year and this year's team is better. 16-2 in conference and 2 huge wins in the conference tournament. We also have some Big Dance pedigree that I think pays in our favor on seeding. I know there is a ton of data to show #14 but this is the easiest way for me to analyze it. Arizona has a great shot at the Final 4 so I hope we don't face them. Good luck Bison!
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bowie
Freshman
Posts: 28
Age: 65
Reg: 01-12-17
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03-11-18 12:43 PM - Post#251892
In response to BisonKid
Just read predicted brackets on usa today..Has bucknell 14 seed paying number 3 Michigan in Nashville. What does anyone think??
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BisonFan4
Junior
Posts: 211
Age: 45
Reg: 12-30-16
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03-11-18 12:59 PM - Post#251900
In response to bowie
I truly believe we are a lock for a 13 seed.
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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03-11-18 01:44 PM - Post#251920
In response to bowie
Just read predicted brackets on usa today..Has bucknell 14 seed paying number 3 Michigan in Nashville. What does anyone think??
I absolutely think that I do not want that matchup!
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bison75
Masters Student
Posts: 487
Reg: 01-26-06
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03-11-18 01:49 PM - Post#251923
In response to bison63
Michigan finished the season hot. No, thank you.
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