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Username Post: NCAA Seeding - Bracketology        (Topic#21294)
BisonRoadWarrior 
Professor
Posts: 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
03-10-18 11:34 PM - Post#251802    
    In response to Bison137

Marshall is Doug Birdsong's alma mater...his other herd of bison join the field!

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 16147
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
NCAA Seeding - Bracketology
03-10-18 11:43 PM - Post#251806    
    In response to BisonRoadWarrior

It has been 31 years since Marshall last made the field. Their most recent appearance (1987) was in the same year as Bucknell's first appearance. They were a 13 seed that year and lost by 16 points to TCU. They have never won an NCAA game, but did win some NIT games in 1967.




 
BisonRoadWarrior 
Professor
Posts: 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
NCAA Seeding - Bracketology
03-11-18 01:14 AM - Post#251821    
    In response to Bison137

Saturday night Lunardi: Bucknell #13 vs Arizona in San Diego.

These projected locations have been steady all week long for both ESPN and CBS:
--14s in Dallas (x2), Wichita, Nashville
--12s/13s in Boise (x2), San Diego (x2)

 
BUFan 
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
BUFan
Reg: 01-24-06
03-11-18 09:39 AM - Post#251839    
    In response to bison63

Here is how I would put our probabilities right now...

Seed #:
13 Seed - 60%
14 Seed - 35%
12 Seed - 3%
15 Seed - 2%
Note - I can't see us being a 12 of 15 on the S curve, but the Committee can bump teams up or down a spot to accommodate geographies / match ups, which bring them into play.

Location:
San Diego - 30% (Friday)
Boise - 25% (Thursday)
Dallas - 20% (Thursday)
Wichita - 15% (Thursday)
Nashville - 8% (Friday)
All Others (Pitt, Charlotte, Detroit) - 2%

It seems like all four 4 seeds may wind up in San Diego and Boise, as there will be no West Coast Top 3 seeds who will want those sites. Thus, if we are a 13 (or 12), we are headed west. (Caveat, if Wichita State hangs onto a 3, they could go to one of those sites as they can't play in Wichita)

The eight 1/2 seeds will likely go as follows:
Pittsburgh (2)
Charlotte (2)
Detroit (Likely 2)
Wichita (1)
Nashville (Likely 1)

That means the 3 seeds are likely destined for Dallas (2), Wichita (1), and Nashville (1), although it is possible Detroit could get 1.

Probability of Facing Teams:
Wichita State (20%)
Arizona (15%)
Auburn (15%)
Tennessee (10%)
Texas Tech (10%)
Michigan (10%)
Kentucky (5%)
Michigan State (5%)
Gonzaga (5%)
Field (5%)

The one caveat is that if Kentucky beats Tennessee today, they may solidify a 4 seed and become a more likely opponent (not good). With a loss, Tennessee could also become a bit more likely, as they may go from a high 3 to a low 3 / high 4 seed.

 
dirtynine 
Sophomore
Posts: 127

Reg: 02-01-06
03-11-18 09:47 AM - Post#251843    
    In response to BUFan

awesome work! Thanks for this.

 
BisonRoadWarrior 
Professor
Posts: 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
NCAA Seeding - Bracketology
03-11-18 09:50 AM - Post#251844    
    In response to dirtynine

ESPN moved us back to a 14, vs Tennessee in Nashville


 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 16147
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
Re: NCAA Seeding - Bracketology
03-11-18 09:55 AM - Post#251845    
    In response to BisonRoadWarrior

  • BisonRoadWarrior Said:
ESPN moved us back to a 14, vs Tennessee in Nashville




I'm looking at ESPN (Lunardi) right now, and I see Bucknell as a 13 playing in San Diego vs Arizona. Not sure I like the prospect of playing against 7-1 DeAndre Ayton, who is getting better every game. Ayton is likely ineligible but it won't help the Bison cause when Arizona has to forfeit the game 18 months from now.




 
bison75 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Reg: 01-26-06
03-11-18 09:59 AM - Post#251846    
    In response to Bison137

Palm still has us as a 14, playing Michigan State in Wichita.

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 16147
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
03-11-18 10:04 AM - Post#251848    
    In response to bison75

Note that both Lunardi and Palm have Marshall seeded ahead of the Bison. They have a worse RPI but more good wins.




 
BisonRoadWarrior 
Professor
Posts: 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
03-11-18 10:07 AM - Post#251849    
    In response to bison75

Sorry...I think I was looking at a tab I had opened yesterday.

 
BUFan 
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
BUFan
Reg: 01-24-06
NCAA Seeding - Bracketology
03-11-18 10:18 AM - Post#251854    
    In response to BisonRoadWarrior

Palm had moved us to a 13, but surprisingly moved us back last night. Frankly, I think we give all of these guys too much credit. Especially in terms of placing 13s vs. 14s, I think they give very little thought

If we get Arizona, the plus side is that the FBI could choose to drop a bombshell tomorrow morning when college basketball is on everyone's mind that could cause a lot of distractions in Arizona

Edited by BUFan on 03-11-18 10:18 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
DoCtoR62 
Masters Student
Posts: 463

Reg: 05-18-08
03-11-18 10:23 AM - Post#251855    
    In response to BisonRoadWarrior

Appears the difference b/w CBS & ESPN is Charleston, who is a 13-seed in Palm's brackets and a 14 in Lunardi's. Better RPI than Bucknell, but a much weaker strength of schedule. The non-conference SOS is significantly worse.

 
Bison89 
Professor
Posts: 5370
Bison89
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
03-11-18 10:53 AM - Post#251860    
    In response to DoCtoR62

It will be what it will be. I'm rooting for a Friday game so that I can work a half day and watch hoops the rest.

Mrs. Bison89 booked dinner plans on Friday evening with another couple. After 21 years, she should know better! (I'm starting to feel a sore throat coming on that might lead to a fever at 6pm on Friday.)
New season, new team, new dream . . .


 
BUFan 
PhD Student
Posts: 1936
BUFan
Reg: 01-24-06
03-11-18 11:11 AM - Post#251867    
    In response to Bison89

As long as we aren’t at 3 pm on Thursday when I have a meeting I can’t miss, I’ll be happy!

 
BisonRoadWarrior 
Professor
Posts: 5203
BisonRoadWarrior
Loc: Where the Bison Roam
Reg: 08-16-06
NCAA Seeding - Bracketology
03-11-18 11:49 AM - Post#251872    
    In response to BUFan

Now Lunardi says 13 vs West Virginia in Boise but that won’t happen per seeding guidelines that rule out rematches from last two years.


 
BisonKid 
Sophomore
Posts: 154

Reg: 01-26-06
03-11-18 12:40 PM - Post#251888    
    In response to BisonRoadWarrior

I'm banking on a #13 seed based on the fact that we were #13 last year and this year's team is better. 16-2 in conference and 2 huge wins in the conference tournament. We also have some Big Dance pedigree that I think pays in our favor on seeding. I know there is a ton of data to show #14 but this is the easiest way for me to analyze it. Arizona has a great shot at the Final 4 so I hope we don't face them. Good luck Bison!

 
bowie 
Freshman
Posts: 28

Age: 65
Reg: 01-12-17
03-11-18 12:43 PM - Post#251892    
    In response to BisonKid

Just read predicted brackets on usa today..Has bucknell 14 seed paying number 3 Michigan in Nashville. What does anyone think??

 
BisonFan4 
Junior
Posts: 211

Age: 45
Reg: 12-30-16
03-11-18 12:59 PM - Post#251900    
    In response to bowie

I truly believe we are a lock for a 13 seed.

 
bison63 
Postdoc
Posts: 3857

Reg: 01-23-06
03-11-18 01:44 PM - Post#251920    
    In response to bowie

  • bowie Said:
Just read predicted brackets on usa today..Has bucknell 14 seed paying number 3 Michigan in Nashville. What does anyone think??


I absolutely think that I do not want that matchup!

 
bison75 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Reg: 01-26-06
03-11-18 01:49 PM - Post#251923    
    In response to bison63

Michigan finished the season hot. No, thank you.

 
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