digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 466
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
|
03-08-18 04:36 PM - Post#251434
Bovada has:
Penn -115
Harvard +175
Yale +650
Cornell +1300
If I'm doing my gorilla math correctly, that implies Penn wins the thing about 53% of the time (ignoring vig)? Yay 1 seed!
Edited by digamma on 03-08-18 04:38 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Odds to win Tournament 03-08-18 05:08 PM - Post#251439
In response to digamma
They have shifted a little already. I am a little surprised that you can get +185 for Harvard given their easier path to the final. See here
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: Odds to win Tournament 03-08-18 05:29 PM - Post#251443
In response to Streamers
Yeah, my latest run had it:
52% Penn
29% Harvard
14% Yale
5% Cornell
Didn't run it for all neutral, but YUSAG did and had the differential at 12pp for Penn with about 2/3rds of that going to Harvard and 1/3rd to Yale. So, basically Penn and Harvard would be nearly even odds on a neutral floor given that. I might re-run neutral to see what I come up with given that I have a slightly different starting point than them...
|
digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 466
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
|
03-08-18 05:58 PM - Post#251448
In response to mrjames
Out of curiosity, how much does it change, if at all, if you use only Ivy results?
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
|
03-08-18 06:25 PM - Post#251451
In response to digamma
And Tommy still publicly supports it being held at the Palestra. Pretty incredible.
|
Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
|
03-08-18 06:32 PM - Post#251452
In response to Quakers03
Tommy's not dumb. He understands what the conference tournament is, and what it isn't. He can afford to play a long game, and sees that, for now, it's in the best interest of his program to keep the tournament where it is.
|
westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
|
03-08-18 06:43 PM - Post#251453
In response to Silver Maple
"......it's in the best interest of his program to keep the tournament where it is."
What do you have in mind? Wouldn't the best interest of his program be playing in the NCAA Tournament.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3578
Reg: 02-15-15
|
03-08-18 06:58 PM - Post#251455
In response to westphillywarrior
It's in his best interest to improve the competition in the league, given he believes Harvard will continue to be nationally relevant in recruiting. That helps him land bigger fish so when he wins, Harvard looks better on the national stage (and may actually be better!). And the Palestra is an asset in that image for him, no question.
|
digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 466
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
|
03-08-18 08:36 PM - Post#251464
In response to PennFan10
For the record, I was just joking about the Yay #1 seed thing. I actually think Philly is really the only location for the tournament. It makes it an event, and an easy gathering spot for different teams. If we're going down this route it might as well be an event that is, you know, fun.
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
|
03-09-18 01:03 AM - Post#251479
In response to digamma
No arguments here! The Palestra certainly is a league asset. Now I just need to get the 102 fever out of my sons system so he can "yell his lungs off" on Saturday. It would crush him to miss it.
|
weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
|
03-09-18 03:00 PM - Post#251566
In response to Quakers03
Hope your kid gets better soon, Q03. He shouldn't have to miss the weekend's festivities.
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
|
03-09-18 11:13 PM - Post#251625
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Thanks! Pumping him with fluids and children's motrin. Doctor says it's just a virus so we'll see how he wakes up. He has been coming with me since he was a baby, but this was the first year he REALLY got into it, following along, knowing all the players, etc. It has been a pleasure.
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
03-10-18 08:34 AM - Post#251636
In response to Quakers03
Where are you sitting ?
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
|
03-10-18 08:49 AM - Post#251637
In response to Streamers
Caddy corner to the usual Penn bench. Another reason not securing the one seed has left me bitter.
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
|
03-10-18 12:23 PM - Post#251670
In response to Quakers03
102 still with us. He is an unfortunate DNP. It will have to be the deuce for him. Now I'm bringing someone who was with me for the princeton comeback a decade + ago...which didn't turn around until we left. I'm anxious.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32683
Reg: 11-21-04
|
03-10-18 07:52 PM - Post#251735
In response to Quakers03
Don't be.
|