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Username Post: Odds to win Tournament        (Topic#21302)
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 273

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
03-08-18 03:36 PM - Post#251434    

Bovada has:

Penn -115
Harvard +175
Yale +650
Cornell +1300

If I'm doing my gorilla math correctly, that implies Penn wins the thing about 53% of the time (ignoring vig)? Yay 1 seed!

Edited by digamma on 03-08-18 03:38 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2850
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Odds to win Tournament
03-08-18 04:08 PM - Post#251439    
    In response to digamma

They have shifted a little already. I am a little surprised that you can get +185 for Harvard given their easier path to the final. See here

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5278

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Odds to win Tournament
03-08-18 04:29 PM - Post#251443    
    In response to Streamers

Yeah, my latest run had it:

52% Penn
29% Harvard
14% Yale
5% Cornell

Didn't run it for all neutral, but YUSAG did and had the differential at 12pp for Penn with about 2/3rds of that going to Harvard and 1/3rd to Yale. So, basically Penn and Harvard would be nearly even odds on a neutral floor given that. I might re-run neutral to see what I come up with given that I have a slightly different starting point than them...

 
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 273

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
03-08-18 04:58 PM - Post#251448    
    In response to mrjames

Out of curiosity, how much does it change, if at all, if you use only Ivy results?

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8378

Reg: 12-07-04
03-08-18 05:25 PM - Post#251451    
    In response to digamma

And Tommy still publicly supports it being held at the Palestra. Pretty incredible.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3326

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-08-18 05:32 PM - Post#251452    
    In response to Quakers03

Tommy's not dumb. He understands what the conference tournament is, and what it isn't. He can afford to play a long game, and sees that, for now, it's in the best interest of his program to keep the tournament where it is.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 178

Age: 37
Reg: 01-08-11
03-08-18 05:43 PM - Post#251453    
    In response to Silver Maple

"......it's in the best interest of his program to keep the tournament where it is."

What do you have in mind? Wouldn't the best interest of his program be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1930

Reg: 02-15-15
03-08-18 05:58 PM - Post#251455    
    In response to westphillywarrior

It's in his best interest to improve the competition in the league, given he believes Harvard will continue to be nationally relevant in recruiting. That helps him land bigger fish so when he wins, Harvard looks better on the national stage (and may actually be better!). And the Palestra is an asset in that image for him, no question.

 
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 273

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
03-08-18 07:36 PM - Post#251464    
    In response to PennFan10

For the record, I was just joking about the Yay #1 seed thing. I actually think Philly is really the only location for the tournament. It makes it an event, and an easy gathering spot for different teams. If we're going down this route it might as well be an event that is, you know, fun.

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8378

Reg: 12-07-04
03-09-18 12:03 AM - Post#251479    
    In response to digamma

No arguments here! The Palestra certainly is a league asset. Now I just need to get the 102 fever out of my sons system so he can "yell his lungs off" on Saturday. It would crush him to miss it.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1074

Age: 58
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
03-09-18 02:00 PM - Post#251566    
    In response to Quakers03

Hope your kid gets better soon, Q03. He shouldn't have to miss the weekend's festivities.

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8378

Reg: 12-07-04
03-09-18 10:13 PM - Post#251625    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Thanks! Pumping him with fluids and children's motrin. Doctor says it's just a virus so we'll see how he wakes up. He has been coming with me since he was a baby, but this was the first year he REALLY got into it, following along, knowing all the players, etc. It has been a pleasure.

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2850
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-18 07:34 AM - Post#251636    
    In response to Quakers03

Where are you sitting ?

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8378

Reg: 12-07-04
03-10-18 07:49 AM - Post#251637    
    In response to Streamers

Caddy corner to the usual Penn bench. Another reason not securing the one seed has left me bitter.

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8378

Reg: 12-07-04
03-10-18 11:23 AM - Post#251670    
    In response to Quakers03

102 still with us. He is an unfortunate DNP. It will have to be the deuce for him. Now I'm bringing someone who was with me for the princeton comeback a decade + ago...which didn't turn around until we left. I'm anxious.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19730

Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-18 06:52 PM - Post#251735    
    In response to Quakers03

Don't be.

 
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