Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-15-18 05:48 PM - Post#253305
Here's what we know...
Brodeur is one of the top 3 players in the league as a sophomore. What's more, he showed the ability to improve taking one of his biggest weaknesses in struggling to deal with double teams and turning that into a strength. This is great.
Betley is a top 10 player in the league as a sophomore. This is great. He was a little streakier game-to-game than I'd like. He also was not someone you could give the ball at the top of the key and ask to go to work. He can work on that this summer, but we may have to allow for the idea that he'll never be such a player. His 3 point shooting creates gravity and he's a fantastic complement to AJ.
We are losing our 3rd best and possibly our 4th best players (if not 4th than certainly 5th) in Darnell and Wood. It will not be easy, per se, to replace Wood. OH MY GOD HE WAS SO GOOD ON OFFENSE! A 120 ORAT on 23% usage, 61% true shooting. Just hook that to my veins! It's tempting to be like, well let's just put another failed starter in that role and it will take care of itself but we all know that it won't work that way. But there are options and maybe we pick
up a bit more defense along the way out of that spot.
The Foreman loss is challenging. Ultimately Penn dynasties have been able to withstand losses like Foreman, a good not great player, a leader, etc. What concerns me is that he was also our primary ball handler. You see what happened last year to our team when Wood ran the show, you saw this year what happened when Harvard got replacement-level point guard play. I guess I'd say that if we don't repeat, it will be because we never replaced Darnell well enough.
Antonio can probably grow into Darnell's defensive load. He's shown that he can't be a primary ballhandler and is best left to the low usage role he had that was efficient-ish. I thought his 3 point shot had improved over the season but interestingly his conference rate was steady (a tick lower) compared to his overall rate.
Max showed an ability to transform his body over the course of a summer. What a great job and example. I think on another team he could be a starting big man. But I continue to believe, and I think Steve shared this belief, that the two big lineup sacrifices too much offense for the improved defense. And against certain teams, like Kansas, you don't even get the good defense because there's no way Max or AJ can chase an athletic 4 around. The offense just looks so much better when it's just one big guy. SPACING! Steve will start Max given his status, but unless something dramatic changes, our crunch time 5 is not going to include Max.
Dev will probably get the first crack at replacing Darnell. Overall, this was NOT a good sophomore year. He played so poorly he got pulled from the rotation and deservedly so. His ORAT for both years are 90 and 91. That's not a good sign. What IS a good sign is that he had a 108 ORAT in conference so maybe he's ending on a good note (though in less minutes than last year's conference play because he got pulled from the rotation). My main fear is that I've never once felt like I want the ball in Dev's hands. He sure looks like a point guard, but I'm not sure we get point guard like results. I'm also mildly worried his frame won't hold up on a more rigorous defensive role but he's been slight both years and yet still gets put in for defense so I'm probably just not seeing it.
That's enough for now.
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Ben Franklin
Masters Student
Posts: 652
Loc: Cleveland
Reg: 02-19-05
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03-15-18 05:53 PM - Post#253307
In response to Jeff2sf
Freshman messiah.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-15-18 07:06 PM - Post#253313
In response to Jeff2sf
On Max, looking right now, who else goes in your crunch time 5? I hear you on spacing, etc., but this year Caleb was simply too good to sit in those spots, and we don’t have another guy who I put ahead of Max right now. Also, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of further refinement over the offseason.
Based on the minutes and rotations this year, Goodman would appear to move into the starting lineup, Scott would get some front court minutes, Silpe would be the backup point, and Donahue would play the Caleb role. But that ignores the guys who were hurt, who might be ahead of everyone.
As we’ve already touched upon, possibilities abound. Some strong indicators that Williams would start. A healthy Hamilton could play as well, and plenty of other guys could step forward (Simmons seems most likely).
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-15-18 07:20 PM - Post#253315
In response to SomeGuy
If Jarrod makes a big leap and Wang comes in ready to contribute we have 4 bigs for 1 spot? I highly doubt that happens. The reason Max’s minutes went down is because Jarrod failed to develop and we then didn’t have any depth like last year. I don’t think SD will sit Jarrod and Wang provided they are ready to contribute. All of that increases Max’s role next year.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-15-18 09:13 PM - Post#253329
In response to PennFan10
If Jarrod makes a big leap and Wang comes in ready to contribute we have 4 bigs for 1 spot? I highly doubt that happens.
Narrator: we had 4 bigs for one spot.
Wang/Simmons. My impression of Mike is a Ryan Anderson for the Ivy League. A stretch 4/5 that can bomb away and bring much needed spacing to the team. But even if his defense is, relatively, better than Ryan Anderson, he's a frosh, and virtually all frosh big men struggle with assignments. I can definitely see an opening for him to get PT but it also wouldn't shock me if he doesn't. Jarrod's my biggest disappointment of the year. The offensive rating is uncommonly good for our Penn bigs of recent vintage though that's likely pumped up by Brandywine. But the defense was not acceptable for Steve and him falling out of the rotation to be replaced by Silpe/Goodman/Mac/more Wood minutes was a big disappointment. Freshmen get better at defense, hopefully he will too. But Jarrod, listen to me, if you sense in the summer that you're behind Wang, transfer.
Because Steve, like Bryan Colangelo and his famous "We have four centers"m learned that having surplus isn't worth anything (and Colangelo's best backup center may well be his 6'10 point guard for playing five out). The game has changed and as I alluded to, forget four out, five out can be a thing. Someguy says it was because Caleb was so darn good. Nah, if that was the case, he could have subbed Caleb more for Darnell and Antonio. But he liked what four guards/wings did for the flow of the offense. PF10 says it's cus he had to back up AJ. Nah, in the beginning of the year, before Jarrod had really cracked the rotation, where he got 2 minutes against LaSalle, Max played 38. Where he got 1 minute against Northern Illinois, Max played 28.
Nope, Steve wanted to set the tone with defense at the beginning of the year and was committed to trying two bigs. And he got great defense. But he got no spacing and a less efficient offense and thus he decided to try to sacrifice some defense for offense. Could he go back now that he doesn't have Caleb? sure, but remember, we're trying to be better than this year, so backsliding seems not helpful.
Next post we'll touch on Jelani/Eddie, the hopeful freshmen-not-really-fresh men keys to us breaking into the top 100.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-15-18 09:44 PM - Post#253332
In response to Jeff2sf
All I know is that we managed to survive 1996 when we lost our entire starting lineup.
Of course, it helped that one of our current assistant coaches (and 6th man in '95) won IL POY, but we surprised that year.
I suspect we'll do well enough next year but we will be in a real dogfight to make Top 2.
But enough about next year...at least for tonight. Time to enjoy and reflect on the amazing year that was.
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omegahouse
Freshman
Posts: 84
Reg: 12-06-04
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03-15-18 11:24 PM - Post#253340
In response to penn nation
I agree with PN..........let’s set all aside for a day or two, or perhaps a week or longer, all the prognostication, and bask in the very warm glow of a season that in many ways came out of the blue, and did much to dispel the cold grip of a decade in the wilderness. Thank you to Steve and all the members of this memorable team. You have made memories that will endure. Thank you one and all!!
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-16-18 07:27 AM - Post#253348
In response to Jeff2sf
I’m more worried about losing Foreman on defense than offense. Yes, I think Antonio can grow into Foreman’s role. The question is who grows into Antonio’s.
It struck me during the Kansas game that, while nobody really can guard Graham, most of his big run in the first half came with Goodman on him. Woods did the best job on him, though that may be that we never got them back in a code red situation in the second half when he was guarding him more. Not to say that Goodman can’t be the guy on Defense, but yesterday there was a big drop defensively after Foreman and Woods.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-16-18 08:00 AM - Post#253349
In response to SomeGuy
The question is "how good is Jelani Williams?" At 6'5", he may be our answer to how to cover tough shooting guards/swing forwards. Goodman may be more of a point on offense, but I agree that he is not the answer when it comes to a defensive assignment like we saw yesterday or Towns, in our league.
But we'll have plenty of time to discuss that. I see a program on the rise, not a peak program. We got great mileage out of our seniors, but the pedigree of the replacements is at a much higher level...we just have to get them there. As for now, we played a very good team, and, had it not been for our ridiculously horrible free throw shooting, we would have been right in it until the end. I do not know the answer for the bad foul shooting, but everyone was missing, not just one or two. Could well have been nerves. But we must improve in that area. Don't know next year's schedule, but that can take a significant upgrade as well.
Great season--most fun I've had going to these games since Zack's senior season, and this was a better team than that. Going back to 2007, there was a wistful feeling then since the entire productive part of the roster was graduated. Here, we had 2 juniors and 3 sophs playing major roles.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-16-18 08:07 AM - Post#253352
In response to palestra38
Whether this team is on the rise depends on Donahue and health. One year of startlingly good coaching should translate into more of same, but we'll see. And we were ridiculously healthy this year with everyone but the young guys. It's great to have the depth that makes the injuries to the freshmen almost irrelevant.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-16-18 08:35 AM - Post#253357
In response to 10Q
Compared to Yale and Harvard we were healthy, but we had our share of injuries. Word was that Williams might have been a starter from day one. Foreman didn’t practice the last 6 weeks and played with a stress fracture. We know Max was hurt in the middle, and I suspect that, while Jeff and PF10 had an interesting debate over what his reduction in minutes down the stretch meant philosophically, ultimately he played less late because he wasn’t right.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 08:54 AM - Post#253360
In response to SomeGuy
All the most important guys played all year. That's what I call ridiculously healthy.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 08:57 AM - Post#253363
In response to 10Q
that's what I call a ridiculous comment. It is entirely possible that had the freshmen been healthy, we would have been a much better team. Tell me you expected Foreman and Wood to play this well this year.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 09:00 AM - Post#253364
In response to palestra38
You are engaging in major speculation as to the freshman. And it has nothing to do with my expectations, though admittedly I did predict an Ivy title, so you lose that argument.
So then I guess we'd have to say your comment that my comment was ridiculous is a ridiculous comment.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 09:06 AM - Post#253366
In response to 10Q
Your prediction was a joke, as is your analysis.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 09:15 AM - Post#253367
In response to palestra38
Ah. The truce is over.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 09:24 AM - Post#253371
In response to 10Q
Nope, basking in the peace of no politics. But I don't want to hear your biting criticism of a team that played its heart out just because you made a joke prediction of 14-0
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4471
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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03-16-18 09:30 AM - Post#253375
In response to palestra38
"Ridiculously Healthy" may be a bit hyperbolic. Losing Williams and Hamilton for the entire season and Scott for most of the season along with 2 starters (at minimum) dinged up pretty good for part of the season, it would seem to me that this Penn team would not fall into that category...
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 09:33 AM - Post#253377
In response to palestra38
Biting criticism. No way. I love this team. I'm just disappointed that they didn't do better yesterday.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-18 09:34 AM - Post#253378
In response to Cvonvorys
Yes, hyperbolic. How does much healthier in terms of the key components than in the recent past strike you?
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