weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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03-17-18 05:10 PM - Post#253634
In response to TheLine
I hope he shot a lot of free throws while he was rehabbing his injury this year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-18-18 07:03 AM - Post#253668
In response to Chip Bayers
Scott didn’t play much guard, if at all, last year. He was almost exclusively play8ng the 4. He also played less minutes than Donahue before getting hurt, including less minutes the last couple of games. So he certainly hadn’t moved ahead of Donahue as of the time he stopped playing.
As for Hamilton (and to nitpick for a second, he is not a “younger guardâ€), when last we saw him, he also was playing almost exclusively as a 4 for us (replacing Howard). He also played 175minutes as a junior, while Donahue was playing 563. So again, he was significantly behind Donahue in the rotation when last we saw him.
Perhaps more importantly, in terms of what needs to be done to get in the rotation, Hamilton needs to get above the Mendoza line offensively. He’s had a sub 90 ORAT both years. Jeff is complaining about Max at 100, and was down on Woods coming into this year for being a 95. I was down on Tony Hicks for the same thing. All 3 guys have been much more efficient than Hamilton. So far, he is not an offensive player. He needs to get better at staying with his man defensively as well. He seemed to draw tough assignments for limited minutes as a soph, but he also lost his man at a high rate. Physically he looks pretty good, but he simply needs to be better in a lot of ways to play.
Scott just needs experience and to cut out the freshman mistakes. We’ll know a lot about his future based on how he comes back next year. Seems like a good candidate for a sophomore leap.
Finally, when you talk about Betley at the 2, who do you see at the 3? When I said there is room for big man minutes, I meant that somebody could cut into the significant minutes where we play 4 guards with Betley or Woods guarding the 4. I do not see any scenario where we play 3 bigs or anything like that.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-18-18 08:21 AM - Post#253669
In response to SomeGuy
Given that Steve’s sub patterns when it’s 4 out/1 in appears at times to treat the 2/3/4 as interchangeable, I can easily see Scott as a 3 when Betley plays the 2. Or vice versa, the numbers almost don’t matter except perhaps when it comes to matching up on the defensive end. Heck, Betley probably played more 4 than he did 3 down the stretch, but I see no reason it couldn’t go the other way.
I think Steve probably has a preference, inherited from Dunph, to play big guards when possible. Certainly he tried to force that at the beginning of last year when he had Wood out there over Foreman, alongside Donahue/McDonald/Howard, with the smallest guy in the group earning PT because he was a 3 threat.
That to me is the biggest reason Donahue could still get a chance at minutes, just as he did this year, since Steve seems to always be hunting for lineups with multiple shooters on the floor in his rotations, and hoping he can land on the hot hand on a given night. That’s why guys like Jones and Silpe got cameos this year even after Wood had established himself as the 2nd shooter after Betley. And why Goodman only re-established himself in the rotation after he showed he could hit some 3s.
Unless this year’s unusual (for Steve) emphasis on defense remains. Then Jackson probably gets pushed further down the depth chart again, just as happened as this season went along, because he can’t bring the ball upcourt on offense and has to be hidden on D to boot.
BTW, heard some speculation in Wichita that there might be an add to this year’s recruiting class who is, unsurprisingly, a big guard who can shoot. Described as another Wood type, in that he’s got a great looking shot and quick release but is so skinny as a 17-18-year-old that he didn’t attract a lot of D-I interest until late in the cycle.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-18-18 09:04 AM - Post#253673
In response to Chip Bayers
Agree with you on D. When I look at the possibilities, the reason I lean toward Jackson playing is that I don’t see a complete two way player (Williams might be, and others could become that), and I don’t see an heir apparent to Foreman defensively that creates as clear a Defense first lineup as this year. So I default to the 3 point shooter.
Donahue’s path to time is getting more competent on defense, but it also could be simply not having other guys develop — he seems to me to have limited upside, but a valuable skill. If others don’t step up, that skill wins out.
The Defense first lineup does create another path to playing time for a number of guys — who will be our top 3 defensive guards? Woods obviously comes in #1. Betley could be 2 or 3, and obviously is good enough that he will play big minutes. Who is that 3rd guy? Goodman needs to show that he is committed to Defense and that he can do it playing starter minutes. Silpe got high marks from some for Defense this year (though sometimes I wonder if he gets extra credit for waving his arms a lot). Hamilton’s past usage guarding tough assignments for a few minutes (Goodman does this too) suggests that the staff sees him as a defender. Somebody here could seize the 5th starter role or at least heavy bench minutes by moving ahead of the pack defensively.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-18-18 10:53 AM - Post#253688
In response to SomeGuy
Scott didn’t play much guard, if at all, last year. He was almost exclusively play8ng the 4. He also played less minutes than Donahue before getting hurt, including less minutes the last couple of games. So he certainly hadn’t moved ahead of Donahue as of the time he stopped playing.
As for Hamilton (and to nitpick for a second, he is not a “younger guardâ€), when last we saw him, he also was playing almost exclusively as a 4 for us (replacing Howard). He also played 175minutes as a junior, while Donahue was playing 563. So again, he was significantly behind Donahue in the rotation when last we saw him.
Perhaps more importantly, in terms of what needs to be done to get in the rotation, Hamilton needs to get above the Mendoza line offensively. He’s had a sub 90 ORAT both years. Jeff is complaining about Max at 100, and was down on Woods coming into this year for being a 95. I was down on Tony Hicks for the same thing. All 3 guys have been much more efficient than Hamilton. So far, he is not an offensive player. He needs to get better at staying with his man defensively as well. He seemed to draw tough assignments for limited minutes as a soph, but he also lost his man at a high rate. Physically he looks pretty good, but he simply needs to be better in a lot of ways to play.
Scott just needs experience and to cut out the freshman mistakes. We’ll know a lot about his future based on how he comes back next year. Seems like a good candidate for a sophomore leap.
Finally, when you talk about Betley at the 2, who do you see at the 3? When I said there is room for big man minutes, I meant that somebody could cut into the significant minutes where we play 4 guards with Betley or Woods guarding the 4. I do not see any scenario where we play 3 bigs or anything like that.
Hamilton is hard to judge since he did not play much this year. I wouldn't count him out. He didn't get to play on the Penn team that became much more efficient this year. Some players improved more than others. My base case is that Hamilton has a situational role off the bench, but he has the tools to go beyond that. I saw him confidently shoot a few threes last year and look pretty good doing it.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-18-18 11:07 AM - Post#253691
In response to Penndemonium
Goodman is a very nice backup/change of pace PG. If he ends up playing starter's minutes, we are in trouble. That said, there may be specific individual games where he assumes that role based on match ups.
Call Scott whatever you want, but I see him as a slasher. He will be a versatile piece that can play multiple positions, but I don't see him as a consistent outside shooting threat.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-18-18 12:12 PM - Post#253692
In response to penn nation
Goodman's also a lousy FT shooter - another limiting factor.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-18-18 12:44 PM - Post#253695
In response to Chip Bayers
I'd be surprised if Penn doesn't add someone to its 2018 class, if for AI reasons alone.
Also, in doing my post-senior season sweep, I *think* I'd have Wang in my Top 5 players for the 2018 Ivy class now. Not necessarily as dramatic as a Miye Oni-type rise, but the opportunity to play a bigger role for Mater Dei was huge. Adding him and Jelani Williams should provide a noticeable boost.
Question is whether it is enough to stay with Harvard (and frankly Princeton adding a future pro should be *very* interesting).
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-18-18 12:54 PM - Post#253696
In response to SomeGuy
Scott didn’t play much guard, if at all, last year. He was almost exclusively play8ng the 4. He also played less minutes than Donahue before getting hurt, including less minutes the last couple of games. So he certainly hadn’t moved ahead of Donahue as of the time he stopped playing.
Can you imagine the possibilities, though, if Scott could play guard, at least on occasion? Imagine a 6'5" Williams and a 6'6" Scott as a guard tandem.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2137
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-18-18 01:34 PM - Post#253700
In response to penn nation
Scott didn’t play much guard, if at all, last year. He was almost exclusively play8ng the 4. He also played less minutes than Donahue before getting hurt, including less minutes the last couple of games. So he certainly hadn’t moved ahead of Donahue as of the time he stopped playing.
Can you imagine the possibilities, though, if Scott could play guard, at least on occasion? Imagine a 6'5" Williams and a 6'6" Scott as a guard tandem.
I didn't see enough of Scott before his injury to get a sense of how quickly he picked up what the coaches expect from him defensively, but it would be interesting if he could grow into a role similar to the one Bassey plays for Harvard.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-18-18 05:26 PM - Post#253715
In response to Chip Bayers
BTW, heard some speculation in Wichita that there might be an add to this year’s recruiting class who is, unsurprisingly, a big guard who can shoot. Described as another Wood type, in that he’s got a great looking shot and quick release but is so skinny as a 17-18-year-old that he didn’t attract a lot of D-I interest until late in the cycle.
Is this Caleb Matthews the Delaware Gatorade Played of the year that Q03 mentioned before?
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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next year, the deepest of deep dives
03-18-18 09:42 PM - Post#253743
In response to Mike Porter
I think so. Heard that Mike Martin at Brown and a handful of other schools are also pursuing - Q03 may have also mentioned those, don’t remember the specific post.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-18-18 09:45 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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The Quad
Sophomore
Posts: 137
Reg: 12-16-04
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For Mike James--algorithm changes?
03-18-18 11:41 PM - Post#253751
In response to mrjames
For Mike James:
Mike Wang did have a very nice season, so good to hear your upgrade.
In view of Penn being an Ivy Co-Champion despite have a relatively lightly recruited team ---none of the Penn freshmen played or contributed greatly; unlike some of the other Ivy teams, most notably Harvard with its numerous 4* and 3* players, the only 3* Penn players were AJ Brodeur and Jake Silpe—does that make you want to adjust your algorithm for Ivy champions/win shares based on consensus highly starred recruited players?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-18-18 11:56 PM - Post#253752
In response to The Quad
Next year will be more of the same. Harvard picked at the top and certainly above Penn for the 4th straight year under Steve Donahue. That said, SD's record in 3 years vs Harvard is 4-3 so Harvard's ability to "stay ahead" of Penn means little.
BTW over the same time span SD's record vs Princeton is 2-4 and vs Yale is 3-4.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-19-18 07:58 AM - Post#253755
In response to PennFan10
But in the year that counts, SD was 2-0 vs Princeton,, and 2-1 vs Yale and Harvard.
And we will be a better team next year as long as we find the guy to replace Wood's 6th man contribution (I think that we will replace Foreman more easily, despite his outstanding contribution).
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: For Mike James--algorithm changes?
03-19-18 07:59 AM - Post#253756
In response to The Quad
I re-train the recruiting models after every class.
I'm not so sure what any of what we've seen recently would change, though. The recruiting model predicted that Harvard's 2016 class would be the most productive in the history of my model and after two seasons, it is the most productive as far back as we have win shares.
As I've said before, Harvard is still paying for getting basically nothing aside from a good season from Zena, a couple good seasons from Corey and an okay season from TMac out of its entire 2013, 2014 and 2015 classes. And that's something the model indicated as well. It hates small classes (which 2013 and 2014 were) and you only start seeing players push classes higher in projected win shares if they are legit, consensus three stars (none of the 2015ers were).
At the end of the day, I don't have control over the impact of the features of the model. They're set empirically. But I don't expect them to change much based on this year's evidence.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: For Mike James--algorithm changes?
03-19-18 08:08 AM - Post#253758
In response to mrjames
Except the coaching doesn't figure into the model, does it?
Because the individual improvement of players under SD has been fairly enormous. The reduction of mistakes from the Jerome era takes lesser recruited players to another level of competitiveness. The conference stats don't lie--Penn's Assist/TO ratio was 211/158; Harvard's was 194/201. Unless that changes, I like Penn's chances against the Harvard/AAU All Stars next year.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: For Mike James--algorithm changes?
03-19-18 09:17 AM - Post#253764
In response to palestra38
Harvard had to go basically the entirety of league play with guys who will be their fifth- and sixth-string PGs next year manning the point.
Coaching is incredibly important. The error term on Princeton's classes is the biggest (positive) in the league. The error term on Penn's classes (especially under Jerome) was the biggest negative. Coaching is important, but talent is much more important.
The recruiting model is a useful tool. It's just one tool though. There's a lot more that goes in to getting a sense of how things will go next year than just that.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: For Mike James--algorithm changes?
03-19-18 09:20 AM - Post#253766
In response to mrjames
The recruiting model is a useful tool. It's just one tool though. There's a lot more that goes in to getting a sense of how things will go next year than just that.
Without getting into too much detail, Mike, what are the inputs for your recruiting model? I suspect it's a lot more than simply the average number of stars a kid gets from a handful of recruiting sites.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: For Mike James--algorithm changes?
03-19-18 09:21 AM - Post#253767
In response to mrjames
Harvard was not significantly different in Assist/TO ratio before Aiken went down. I'll believe that Amaker goes back to a PG-centric offense which they last had with Chambers, when I see it played. But if they continue to play an isolation offense, I don't seem them running away with anything.
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