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Username Post: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)        (Topic#21381)
TigerFan 
PhD Student
Posts: 1131

Reg: 11-21-04
03-16-18 10:54 PM - Post#253553    

#16 up 14 with 15 and change to play.

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 851

Reg: 10-20-14
03-16-18 11:12 PM - Post#253558    
    In response to TigerFan

Retrievers up 12 with 7:12 left. They are outrebounding Virginia 26-18 and 10-20 from three. Cavaliers are 4-19 (21%) from three and 37% overall.

UVa is starting to warm up from the field, but UMBC has an answer each time.

If UMBC wins this, Nate Silver will have to find a way to explain how he picked the wrong #16.

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 851

Reg: 10-20-14
03-16-18 11:20 PM - Post#253561    
    In response to rbg

UMBC still up 12 with just over 4 minutes left!

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 851

Reg: 10-20-14
03-16-18 11:24 PM - Post#253563    
    In response to rbg

Up 17 with 3:30 to go! Don't want to jinx it, but it seems that UVa is going to go down without a fight.

A bigger upset than when Chaminade beat then #1 UVA in 1982?


 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 851

Reg: 10-20-14
03-16-18 11:36 PM - Post#253565    
    In response to rbg

20 point win! Congratulations to UMBC, the new best #1 sixteen seed ever!

Great job by the Retrievers and a poor job by UVa. The Cavaliers had an even worse effort than last night's Arizona team.


 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 08:41 AM - Post#253579    
    In response to rbg

Truly the perfect storm. UMBC coach said they played out of their minds, which was right, and I cannot see them sustaining the key difficult shots they made, but UVA also made this possible with poor shooting, plus they had a key player injury recently. Retrievers played very smart too. Fun game.

Poll: which was more surprising: Chaminade over Ralph Sampson #1 (I think) UVA, or UMBC over #1 seed UVA?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18873

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 08:52 AM - Post#253580    
    In response to sparman

The Sampson team was much better, but they were partying in Hawaii before that game. No excuses for UVa here

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 792

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
03-17-18 09:29 AM - Post#253583    
    In response to rbg

Simply amazing -- awesome.

I got it wrong as it can happen that a #16 can beat a #1 but man, the odds are certainly not with you.

 
Stuart Suss 
Masters Student
Posts: 953

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
03-17-18 10:24 AM - Post#253594    
    In response to bradley

This is what happens when the America East Conference sends a post-season tournament winner to the NCAA tournament instead of the regular season champion (Vermont).

Are post-season tournament opponents, like me, given pause by that fact?



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-17-18 10:45 AM - Post#253596    
    In response to Stuart Suss

A fair number of Cinderellas share that trait from this decade alone. What I will caution - as I know you know, Stu - is that we don’t see the number of upsets that would have happened, in comparison, if the true 1-seeds had gone in those teams’ places (both the non-1-seeds that won AND more importantly, the myriad non-1-seeds that got beat).

While I like to point out the non-1-seeds that go on to do this to demonstrate that not sending the 1 seed isn’t a death sentence (it isn’t - we’d have never seen Dunk City if the A-SUN sent regular season champ Mercer, for instance), I think it’d be hard to argue the expected wins from sending all 1-seeds wouldn’t be much higher than sending the conf tourney winners.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
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Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
03-17-18 11:18 AM - Post#253600    
    In response to mrjames

The results over many years of the NCAA tournament clearly demonstrates that the odds of a #16 seed vs. a #13 seed are significantly different as to winning game #1. In the vast majority of cases, not all, the regular season winner of a conference will be a lower seed than a tournament champion -- simply the track record. There are obvious exceptions but actual results support this obvious conclusion. This year, Vermont would have been a higher seed than UMBC adn the odds of winning one game improves.

Anything can happen at the Big Dance which makes it great but at the end of the day, sending a lower seed team to represent a one bid league simply improves the odds.



 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 11:45 AM - Post#253604    
    In response to Stuart Suss

The Patriots got lucky drafting a great - maybe the greatest- QB in the 6th round years ago. It was an undeniable success. The guy he arguably displaces as the greatest - Johnny U - was picked up on waivers. Sometimes you get lucky and it works.

But does it mean that teams looking to find a great QB should always rely on the same drafting or signing strategy? Never confuse a favorable one-time outcome (here, 1/136 wins for a 16th seed) for a repeatable event.



 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3521

Reg: 02-04-06
03-17-18 12:08 PM - Post#253605    
    In response to sparman

Interesting that the two big upsets this year were teams that played fast--UMBC and Buffalo. Lots of possessions didn't cause convergence to the mean, but blowout upsets instead of squeakers.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 12:11 PM - Post#253606    
    In response to sparman

Yeah, it's complicated. There are, indeed, instances where a team that's pretty far behind in the conference doesn't actually land that much further down the S-Curve than the one that *should* have gone (e.g., Marshall as a 13-seed this year, far behind three better teams in its conference, but the best any of them would have done was likely a 12-seed anyway).

The UMBC example is actually the scenario that I hate most about conference tournaments. Many of you have heard this from me before, but I only feel bad for teams that are among the best 68 resumes in the country but lose in their conference tourney. Vermont was 61st in strength of record.

David Worlock admitted again this year that the committee looks at Bracket Matrix as a resource when making their selections. Insane level of groupthink (you can't look at data that itself is trying to predict what *you* do). Given that environment, it makes ZERO sense not to send your best team. I can't believe how horribly the committee has regressed in this regard over the course of this decade.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 792

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 12:19 PM - Post#253608    
    In response to sparman

There was a fair amount of topic on this debate last year and I thought about it but thank goodness I decided not to go thru a relatively easy exercise to prove the point.

Take an adequate sample size, let's say the last 10 years. Run a probability estimate for the top 4 seeds (IL Tournament) -- let's say 40-30-20-10% for the IvyMadness. Slot the IL teams, seeds 2-4, into a best estimate NCAA seed and include the IL team that represented the league for that year with their actual NCAA seed that year. Hit the button and run the actual overall NCAA win/lost % by seed.

For example, last year was Princeton #12 seed, Harvard estimate #14 seed, Yale #15 and Penn 16. This year, obviously everyone would probably be a 16 seed although Harvard arguably could have been a #15 seed.

It can be done and it is really not all that difficult. There is clearly some advantage to send the regular season winner -- not always but there is clearly an advantage.

If it does not matter to someone as who represents the league that is ok.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 12:41 PM - Post#253611    
    In response to bradley

I've done this work. One of the reasons I always supported the tourney was that with a reasonable shot at an at-large, the numbers actually footed (numbers for higher seed hosts, that is... neutral was always rough, and non-1-seed hosting doesn't come close). Even as recently as the beginning of this decade, conferences like the WCC could get as many as 3 teams in. But now that the WCC has had two Top 35 KenPom teams (both St. Mary's) miss out on the tourney in the past three years, it's clear things have changed in a HUGE way.

With the way the selection committee operates now, I don't see how it pencils out.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 493

Age: 46
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 01:13 PM - Post#253613    
    In response to mrjames

The beauty of things is that sometimes they don't pencil out. I appreciate your deep knowledge of the stats and probabilities. There are always going to be bad matchups and teams that get hot and go on a runs. That's why I love sport.

The result of this only serves to prove again that sometimes you put the pencil down and enjoy the game. The team with the best record and best stats has the best probability to win and we can simulate the results a million times, but they still have to play the games and anything can happen once the ball tips!

Last year Princeton went, this year we sent the better of Penn v Harvard. We sent the best two years in a row. They earned it. However, there will be a time when Dartmouth or Brown or whoever is at the bottom half of the 8 will make the tourney get hot and beat teams with the better records. I can't wait till that happens!

UMBC's win breaks one of the final barriers for lower seeded teams from low/mid major conferences. This year should be an inspiration for non-power conferences like ours. We've been here before with Cornell and Yale! Maybe that 2 Bid Ivy isn't such a far fetched idea. Penn, Harvard, and Yale are going to be good again next year. They play great noncon schedules they are still young and have proven coaching. Here's the point to my rambling...hopefully this UMBC win opens the eyes to the committee to take a deeper look at the non power schools. See the Pac 12's flame out and the rise of UMBC, Marshall, Buffalo, and Loyola Chicago. If it takes UMBC besting Vermont and Virginia combined with high major scandal to spread those bids around, hopefully the Ivy's will benefit.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1479
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 67
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 01:42 PM - Post#253616    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

As a long time Maryland resident, I'm just pleased that UMBC has not gone the route of College Park and rioted after the win

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 01:59 PM - Post#253618    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

Yes, they celebrated in a uniquely UMBC way:

Doggie Pics !

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18873

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 02:28 PM - Post#253620    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

You sure they didn't overrun BWI last night?

 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1479
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 67
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 02:54 PM - Post#253622    
    In response to sparman

I am actively refraining from "doggie style celebration" references.

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 03:14 PM - Post#253625    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

Stormy waters, indeed.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11383

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 08:12 PM - Post#253649    
    In response to sparman

I do not believe Chaminade was a DI school at the time, so in terms of talent disparity that one takes the cake.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3440

Reg: 11-23-04
03-17-18 08:24 PM - Post#253652    
    In response to penn nation

I have just moved the Loyola Ramblers to the top of my Brackets! Way to go to the Penn AD (Brown grad)!

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11383

Reg: 12-02-04
03-17-18 08:29 PM - Post#253653    
    In response to Old Bear

I called this team in an earlier thread. The best team no-one has heard of, and they got cruelly underseeded.

Heck, it wasn't even their first SEC victory of the year--they also took down Florida in Gainesville.

Still remember the Alfredrick Hughes bunch in '85 that went to the Sweet Sixteen. They got taken down by Pat Ewing.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11383

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 08:33 PM - Post#253654    
    In response to TigerFan

I also had to laugh when thinking of Maryland.

Did not make the tourney this year and it required their satellite school to take down a team from their own conference.

Now that's embarrassing.

Edited by penn nation on 03-17-18 08:34 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1027

Age: 58
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-17-18 11:28 PM - Post#253658    
    In response to penn nation

  • penn nation Said:
I also had to laugh when thinking of Maryland.

Did not make the tourney this year and it required their satellite school to take down a team from their own conference.

Now that's embarrassing.



Maryland's not in the ACC any more. They migrated to the Big 10, for reasons that only make sense to those who favor football over basketball.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18873

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-18-18 09:14 AM - Post#253675    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Makes a lot of $$$$ense.

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-18-18 10:18 AM - Post#253681    
    In response to palestra38

Yes, their athletic department was broke and they would have been unable to fix it given the state budget issues and legislature attitude. Stinks for fans, but that was the reality. Plus they always felt - and not without reason - the ACC was really the All Carolina Conference.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11383

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-18-18 10:30 AM - Post#253684    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

  • weinhauers_ghost Said:

Maryland's not in the ACC any more. They migrated to the Big 10, for reasons that only make sense to those who favor football over basketball.



'Pologies for the brain cramp. I guess they did it so that the Big 10 could reach the shores of the Atlantic, which could then clearly serve as justification for holding their tourney at MSG.


 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-18-18 10:38 AM - Post#253685    
    In response to penn nation

For that, Rutgers.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11383

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-18-18 10:11 PM - Post#253745    
    In response to sparman

That was one heck of a way to debut the first ever 9-16 matchup in tourney history.

Who says defense is boring? That was incredible to watch on both ends. UMBC nearly pulled it off-ignore the final score. Despite the low score, it was probably the most entertaining game all day, and that's saying something.**

**OK, I'll give you Nevada.

Edited by penn nation on 03-18-18 10:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18873

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-19-18 08:00 AM - Post#253757    
    In response to penn nation

It's always entertaining watching the 'Heels get destroyed.

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 881
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-19-18 08:52 AM - Post#253761    
    In response to palestra38

Alas, they have to go back to their non-classes.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18873

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Wake the kids, phone the neighbors (UMBC!)
03-19-18 08:55 AM - Post#253763    
    In response to sparman

Along with most of the other losers as well


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3521

Reg: 02-04-06
03-19-18 02:38 PM - Post#253822    
    In response to palestra38

Seeing the high-level D played by UMBC was inspiring. Their conference DPOY is really 5'6", their #1 scoring and creating guy played belly-to-belly on-ball defense while swooping into the passing lanes for steals and deflections, and their defensive rebounding was solid against physical high-major opponents. And they played hard regardless of which team was in the process of making a run.

 
Go Green 
Masters Student
Posts: 429

Age: 47
Reg: 04-22-10
03-19-18 06:02 PM - Post#253841    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
Seeing the high-level D played by UMBC was inspiring. Their conference DPOY is really 5'6", their #1 scoring and creating guy played belly-to-belly on-ball defense while swooping into the passing lanes for steals and deflections, and their defensive rebounding was solid against physical high-major opponents. And they played hard regardless of which team was in the process of making a run.



And if a lot of posters here had their way, UMBC would not have appeared in the tournament.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1127

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-19-18 09:12 PM - Post#253886    
    In response to Go Green

Let's throw out all prior performances and achievements, even head to head, because any team can win on any given day.






 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3521

Reg: 02-04-06
03-20-18 12:37 PM - Post#253959    
    In response to Go Green

Vermont was certainly more deserving of being in the field. They clobbered UMBC twice before losing a squeaker in their tournament final. I wonder what emotions they felt watching Virginia play much worse than they did against the Retrievers.

 
Go Green 
Masters Student
Posts: 429

Age: 47
Reg: 04-22-10
03-20-18 06:42 PM - Post#253970    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
Vermont was certainly more deserving of being in the field. They clobbered UMBC twice before losing a squeaker in their tournament final. I wonder what emotions they felt watching Virginia play much worse than they did against the Retrievers.



Ask 2005 Holy Cross, 2013 Mercer, and probably others that I'm not recalling now.

They know the feeling.


 
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