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Username Post: Underperforming March Madness        (Topic#21411)
Ben Franklin 
Masters Student
Posts: 652

Loc: Cleveland
Reg: 02-19-05
03-22-18 10:17 PM - Post#254185    

538 did an analysis of every coach who has led a team into the NCAA tournament since 1985 to discover who has won more games than statistics expected them to win. Jim Boeheim is #1, followed by Tom Izzo and Roy Williams.

Steve Donahue is #74 (1.1 wins over expected).

Fran Dunphy is #559 (4.1 games below). That's good for dead last.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jim-boeheim- i...

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Underperforming March Madness
03-23-18 06:51 AM - Post#254192    
    In response to Ben Franklin

My question is whether this actually can or should be pinned on the coach.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-23-18 07:47 AM - Post#254193    
    In response to SomeGuy

I'm going to commit sacrilege here, but I think that, in Dunphy's case, you can probably put at least some of the responsibility on him. He always seemed to build his teams to win the league, with little priority placed on winning out of conference or the post season. Fran knew what he needed to do to keep his job, and that's what he did.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
Underperforming March Madness
03-23-18 08:54 AM - Post#254199    
    In response to Silver Maple

Mostly agree with SM here. I think at Penn, and this is part of the Free Duane King narrative, he never thought about what would win in a tournament game and prioritized ball security over talent.

Having said that, I'd ignore the 538 study if it was only based on Penn record. You get in as a double digit seed (mostly in the 12-14 range) and it's hard for me to get bent out of shape that your average win expectancy over 9 first round games is 2 and he just won 1. But the Temple games make me feel like there's something there.

Maybe he's like Andy Reid, who has a true genius for offensive football and keeps a team competent and cohesive but whose main weakness is exposed in playoffs.

Edited by Jeff2sf on 03-23-18 09:08 AM. Reason for edit: who's vs whose always trips me up

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-23-18 09:09 AM - Post#254201    
    In response to Jeff2sf

It's also fair to point out that Dunphy was limited by factors beyond his control. The fact that, until the very end of his time at Penn, only two teams in the conference were actually trying to field competitive men's basketball teams severely limited his ability to recruit. I wonder what he'd be able to accomplish now that almost everybody's making an effort.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 23193

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
03-23-18 09:26 AM - Post#254202    
    In response to Silver Maple

Judging by his work at Temple, I'd say not much.

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
03-23-18 11:05 AM - Post#254207    
    In response to 10Q

The idea that coach K has won 93 tournament games boggles my mind a bit.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
03-23-18 11:12 AM - Post#254208    
    In response to Streamers

Helps to "do what it takes" after the high road no longer works

 
Penndemonium 
PhD Student
Posts: 1877

Reg: 11-29-04
03-23-18 01:41 PM - Post#254214    
    In response to palestra38

In my opinion, Dunphy was a very good recruiter (relative to the league), a great team organizer/leader, and just a medium game coach.

Donahue is an average recruiter (based on limited data), a great team organizer/leader, and a very good game coach (Yale Game 2 notwithstanding).

The second skillset is better matched for the postseason. Dunphy was so even keeled and trusting on his system. He rarely seemed to have the great inbounds play or really strategic change in offense/defense. That didn't work well in the tournament where the mismatches generally worked against us. Those games needed more strategy and gimmicks to limit the damage from opponents' offense and to get our own offense. It seemed we just stuck to our formula.

I can't argue overall with his results. I didn't want to see him leave. I'm finally happy again with Donahue - especially if he recruits well.

It's nice to see that Wang had such a good senior season and Imegwu gives us much better odds that this class won't be a dead spot in our class progression. Fingers crossed!

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-23-18 01:49 PM - Post#254215    
    In response to Penndemonium

Two thoughts:

1) It's too early to say whether Donahue is an above average recruiter.

2) I've always been uncomfortable with the idea of a head coach being a 'good' or 'bad' recruiter. Recruiting is very much a team enterprise. The assistant coaches, other basketball staff members, players, key members of the Department of Athletics administration, the admissions office and the financial aid office all play a huge role in the process. While the head coach is certainly a key contributor, there's so much to recruiting than just him. Whether or not Penn is able to land some big time recruits in the near future is just as dependent (if not more so) on those other factors as it is on Donahue.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
03-23-18 02:06 PM - Post#254217    
    In response to Silver Maple

One thing is certain. Donahue is a better coach than Miller or Allen.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21081

Reg: 12-02-04
03-23-18 02:38 PM - Post#254218    
    In response to palestra38

While we all have high regard for Dunphy even when the going was good we criticized him for in game management of tourney games. To be sure the Quakers were always well prepared, often had leads and never really got blown out.

But inevitably the other team would adjust or find another gear and Dunphy was often ineffective in responding.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
03-23-18 02:44 PM - Post#254220    
    In response to penn nation

Yes, but even when he devised the perfect game plan to win, as against Texas in his last game as Penn coach, they lost.

The Cal loss in Pittsburgh was, in my opinion, on him. The 3 difficult losses with the Allen-Maloney team, were, really not his fault--UMass they were right in it against a more experienced team, Florida was a winning game plan but Maloney had the worst game of his career, and Alabama was just Antonio McDyess.

 
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