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Username Post: Preseason Rankings        (Topic#21670)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1136

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
07-05-18 10:58 AM - Post#258483    

As reported elsewhere (on Princeton thread), Bart Tovik is out with his 2018-19 projections:

#77 Harvard
#116 Yale
#135 Penn
#144 Princeton
#213 Columbia
#230 Brown
#237 Cornell
#260 Dartmouth

Compare to Tovik's 2017-2018 Preseason projections:
#83 Harvard
#87 Princeton
#98 Yale
#151 Penn
#191 Cornell
#224 Dartmouth
#276 Columbia
#302 Brown

Tovik's final 2018 rankings (vs KenPom):
#123 Penn (KP #125)
#139 Harvard (#141)
#199 Princeton (#190)
#202 Yale (#197)
#232 Columbia (#231)
#262 Brown (#267)
#263 Cornell (#265)
#297 Dartmouth (#299)

Clearly, Tovik's preseason expectations for the Ivy League were not met. Injuries and defections clearly played a role, but a league best #123 is a far cry from the projected 3 top 100 teams. Other than Harvard's projected ranking at #77, it appears Tovik has tempered his enthusiasm. Assuming Tovik knows something about the health of Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns.











 
Okoro Dude 
Junior
Posts: 291

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
Re: Preseason Rankings
07-05-18 11:40 AM - Post#258488    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

So he thinks every team in the league will improve from their final 2017-18 ranking except for Penn. I suppose I can only take comfort in his track record from last year.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1136

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
07-05-18 11:55 AM - Post#258491    
    In response to Okoro Dude

Harvard, Yale and Princeton should be better than last year.
- Harvard loses no one with minutes, is bringing in a good class and won't be one of the youngest teams in the nation anymore;
- Yale brings almost everyone back + possibly Bruner; and
- Princeton loses Bell, gains the best recruit in the league, and it's freshmen should improve.

Penn loses a bunch (Foreman, Wood, Jones, McDonald), but definitely should see contributions from last years injured freshmen.
Wonder if Penn's projected finish is due to increasing strength of its league opponents? On the other hand, maybe it's just that Tovik's formula penalizes Penn for graduating players while giving insufficient credit for players who were on roster but couldn't contribute last year. If so, then the 4 playoff spots appear to be settled.




 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3255

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
07-05-18 01:17 PM - Post#258493    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Personally, I'm delighted to see Penn continue to get so little respect from the pundits. That chip on their shoulder served them very well last season.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1136

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Preseason Rankings
07-05-18 01:51 PM - Post#258495    
    In response to Silver Maple

Seems to me that Brown and Penn are most likely to outperform Torvik’s expectations. Harvard is poised to enjoy the benefits of its Class of 2020.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 07-05-18 01:53 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 505

Age: 46
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Rankings
07-05-18 06:00 PM - Post#258504    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Well it's good to see the Ivy projections increase overall, but tough seeing Dartmouth projected to be at the bottom.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2273

Reg: 11-23-04
Re: Preseason Rankings
07-06-18 01:20 AM - Post#258511    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

I am worried when I see Princeton projected to win the IL! Always better to be underestimated.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11451

Reg: 12-02-04
07-06-18 09:48 AM - Post#258518    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Foreman and Wood are indeed big losses. Might take some time to find the right chemistry. Penn's strength of schedule definitely better this year.

 
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