palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32815
Reg: 11-21-04
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Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-30-18 04:44 PM - Post#259700
In response to TheLine
I wonder if you would have predicted that in early February last year, though. Let's remember, however, that I predicted that we would improve despite the loss of Howard.
Good work at the re-hash. Now let's see Antonio take that next step with the shooting.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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07-30-18 04:53 PM - Post#259701
In response to palestra38
Antonio was 35% from 3. That's acceptable. Would like the FT rate to go up this year.
I'm guessing he's a joy to coach - was almost always doing the right thing on the floor.
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The Quad
Sophomore
Posts: 137
Reg: 12-16-04
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Re: Darnell
07-30-18 05:14 PM - Post#259709
In response to TheLine
Actually, Coach Steve Donahue himself did not think Darnell could play at his level---in one of the best quotes of the year from the coach, after Penn won the Ivy tournament vs. co-top seed Harvard (not higher seeded Harvard, but that’s another argument):
“No one thought he could play at this level,†Donahue said. “Honestly, when I came here, I thought, ‘I better get somebody here better than Darnell Foreman if I’m going to win a championship. Sure enough, every stinking day, he proved me wrong. I couldn’t get him out of the lineup."
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/college s/penn/...
Edited by The Quad on 07-30-18 05:15 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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07-30-18 06:53 PM - Post#259720
In response to palestra38
I expect Woods to continue to progress this year, just as Foreman did.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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07-30-18 07:29 PM - Post#259724
In response to SomeGuy
I think so too. Foreman was clearly the alpha last year. My feeling is that Woods will be this year. He saw how Foreman led, he has a chip on his shoulder, and he can play. He's not uber quick, but he is physically strong.
It's hard to say what it is that makes someone's intensity translate into an unstoppable sense of destiny, but hopefully he has it the way some of our past PGs like Jordan, Rosen, and Foreman did.
I expect Woods to continue to progress this year, just as Foreman did.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8240
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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07-30-18 08:12 PM - Post#259726
In response to Penndemonium
It's threads like this that make this board required reading
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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07-30-18 11:02 PM - Post#259731
In response to Penndemonium
I think some are forgetting that in the first half of the season, Darnell slowed down the ball movement, was a poor 3 pt. shooter, a poor FT shooter, and didn't have great efficiency. He was the best we had, but that had as much to do with our roster as anything else. Some people had noted that our team struggled in games where he took 10 shots or more. His assist rate was quite low, and A/TO was nothing special. His FT shooting was poor. The best thing you could have said about him was his rebounding. This was often against really weak competition in our non-league schedule.
It wasn't until the Ivy season that he started to solidify, and it wasn't until the second half of the Ivy season that he really imposed himself into game outcomes.
I think he was a hero for his performance, but let's not be revisionist about 1st or 2nd team All-Ivy level play. He might have deserved it if you only watched his last 6-10 games.
Darnell should have been 1st or 2nd team All Conference. He was excellent and will be hard to replace.
Several problems with this analysis.
1-Among the 6 All conference Guards, His A/TO rate was 2.25, the next best guard was 1.47
2- Among All Conf guards, his 3pt% and FT% were middle of the pack
3-Efficiency? Only one All Conf guard had a better ORat and Win Share
4-His assist rate was 2nd best among 6 All Conference Guards
5-For All Conference, the only stats that matter are his league stats.
A comparison of the 6 All conference Guards with Foreman (Conference stats):
(FGM/FGA, Ppg, FG%, 3pt%, FT%, Reb, Asst, Steal, A /TO, MPG, Orat, WS)
Darnell Foreman: 51-102, 11.1, 57%, 32%, 76%, 4.2, 3.86, 1.2, 2.25, 31.5, 118, 1.7
Matt Morgan 89-192, 20.5, 58%, 34%, 81%, 4.8, 3.14, 0.93, 1.47, 35.5, 118, 1.8
Mike Smith 76-198, 17.1, 44%, 28%, 86%, 2.86, 4.36, 0.79, 1.9, 33.6, 111, 1.2,
Des Cambridge 90-224, 18.6, 46%, 33%, 72%, 4.93, 1.14, 1.3, 0.52, 31.6, 103, 1
Miye Oni 72-181, 14, 48%, 28%, 74%, 6.35, 3.79, 0.86, 1.47, 33.6, 112, 1
Trey Phills 65-114, 13.4, 63%, 42%, 79%, 4.42, 1.71, 1.43, 1.14, 31.8, 128, 2.1
Devin Cannaday 80-180, 15.4, 44%, 36%, 92%, 6.07, 2.14, 0.93, 1.36, 37.8, 109, 1.4
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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07-30-18 11:04 PM - Post#259732
In response to TheLine
Foreman should've been 2nd team All-Ivy based on his advanced metrics, though guys with sub-20% usage rates typically don't make the cut unless they are DPOY caliber.
Darnell was Steve Donahue's nominee for DPOY
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 07:21 AM - Post#259740
In response to PennFan10
That's good to hear. You all know how I feel about him.
On to Woods.
Woods greatly exceeded my expectations and I now understand why Donahue was saying so many complementary things about him during last year's preseason.
On the defensive end Woods was getting the most challenging assignment most nights, particularly during conference play - Towns, Meisner, Oni, etc. Despite giving away a few inches of height most games, he made whoever he was guarding earn every point they got. Woods positioning is real good as is his instincts on when to cover his man tight vs. slack off to help others.
On the offensive end, Woods developed into a plus outside shooter. I know some folks on the board wanted him to pass up some of those shots he took but Donahue would've pulled him if he did - Woods was executing the game plan and I thought he exhibited very good decision making on when to shoot vs. pass. Woods wasn't good finishing at the hoop so his drives were not as effective as Foreman's. I don't know whether Woods will ever be good at this - it's certainly an area for improvement. FT shooting is another area for improvement - it was improved but needs to tick up more.
Woods is a good passer though I thought not as good as Foreman was. He's careful with the ball - a characteristic Donahue seems to value and for good reason. Woods is a good rebounder, which is important for Donahue's defensive scheme - in defensive rebounding situations the primary responsibility of Penn's bigs was often to box out while the guards would come in and grab the rebounds.
As far as intangibles, I like how unflappable Woods is. Nothing seems to get to him, he's consistent no matter what. You need a guy like that if you are to win crazy games like the one at Monmouth - while Foreman had trouble gauging how the refs were calling the game and Jackson Donahue lost his mind, Woods kept his head in the game. We all remember that game as Eddie Scott's coming out party but it was Woods who put the team on his shoulders and won it.
That said, with Foreman graduated I'd like to see Woods be a more vocal team leader. He was a star QB in HS so I think he has it in him.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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07-31-18 10:44 AM - Post#259751
In response to TheLine
serious question: is 35% from outside at the college level considered good? it sure was improved. and i don't think he should have passed them up, but I don't think 35% cuts it. Certainly better than Darnell's.
I think Antonio is capable of reaching the 110 ORat that Darnell had last year but it requires him playing more like he did freshman year when he wasn't very good. Maybe he stopped playing that way because he wasn't good.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 10:54 AM - Post#259752
In response to Jeff2sf
35% would have been 2nd best, behind Cannaday's 36%, among the 6 all conference guards last year(conference stats). If that doesn't cut it, our league sucks.
Edited by PennFan10 on 07-31-18 10:55 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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07-31-18 11:02 AM - Post#259753
In response to Jeff2sf
It's an averagish rate across all NCAA D1 teams. So calling Woods good vs. acceptable behind the arc was pushing it. However it's far better to have average 3 point shooters than average or even above average 2 point shooters - it's a boost above the average eFG%.
Woods bigger issues are that he isn't good at getting to the rim, doesn't convert when he gets there, and doesn't make his FTs at a good enough rate. Foreman was better at all 3 of those. Woods was one of the better players on the team at 2FG jumpers, but at 42% it wasn't good enough. Fortunately it was a smaller fraction of his game, as Donahue rightfully wants shots at the rim or behind the arc.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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07-31-18 11:13 AM - Post#259755
In response to TheLine
yeah in addition to improving his 3 point shot by 10% (I do have a theory that these were mostly catch and shoot as opposed to the more difficult off the dribble ones, but still), it seemed like he cut out some of the inefficient stuff in favor of more efficient stuff. shot selection is a key driver here and he deservedly gets credit for that.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 11:17 AM - Post#259756
In response to Jeff2sf
Yes, both Woods and Foreman were catch and shoot types vs. what Betley and Wood were doing. You could argue Woods is merely keeping defenses honest but you do need that element - if the defense is keying on AJ and Ryan then you need Woods to have them pay the price. He isn't doing that when shooting at a 30% rate, he certainly isn't doing that if he isn't shooting. A 35% rate sounds like a deterrent to me.
Edited by TheLine on 07-31-18 11:20 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 11:26 AM - Post#259757
In response to TheLine
I dunno, I felt every single 3 point shot Darnell missed was a difficult, potentially unnecessary raise up while dribbling and shoot. Every single 3 point shot he made, on the other hand, was in the rhythm of the offense. It was so uncanny, it's almost like I'm just confirming my own bias.
Yeah for what it's worth, Woods is fine being the catch and shoot guy because he tended to get his shots from the defense collapsing on Betley/Brodeur/Wood and two of those 3 are still here. His opportunities shouldn't go down much. But to the extent he needs to fill a creator vacuum from Foreman and Wood, there I'm not sure he's the right man for the job.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32815
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 11:31 AM - Post#259758
In response to Jeff2sf
Let me add my very anecdotal observation--that Woods was zeroing in on that open 3 much better as the year went on and his misses became more of the in and out variety. That (if correct) gives me hope that he can continue to improve and hit those shots that were just missing last year.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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07-31-18 11:31 AM - Post#259759
In response to Jeff2sf
Antonio shooting 35% for Penn is fine. If he was in Caleb's role, it's not good enough (the top shooters shoot 40%+), but he does so many other things for this team, shooting 35% or better is all this team needs.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 11:48 AM - Post#259760
In response to palestra38
I'm not sure I understand what you mean by zeroing in.
In my season review thread, I expressed surprise that Woods, who I thought was improving his 3 point shot throughout the year, actually saw his percentage go down slightly from 1st half to 2nd half (or conference to non-conf, doesn't matter how you slice it). So maybe you perceived the same thing I did, but we seem to have been wrong.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3777
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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07-31-18 12:15 PM - Post#259765
In response to Jeff2sf
I'd like to point out that Darnell Foreman's 3 pt shooting percentage in the final three minutes of the first half against Harvard in Ivy tournament championship games is 100%.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32815
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Feature story on Darnell Foreman
07-31-18 12:17 PM - Post#259767
In response to Jeff2sf
Well, I really meant (and again, this is an anecdotal observation) that early on, when he missed, he would miss badly. Later, all his shots seemed to be on target, although clearly, more missed than went in. They all seemed to be closer.
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