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Username Post: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects        (Topic#21759)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-18-18 08:53 AM - Post#260471    
    In response to PennFan10

It seems that the point you are making is that I'm assuming that Bruner is signifcantly additive for Yale while on the other hand I am not giving much credit to Eddie Scott and Jared Simmons.

Here's why.

First, because no one knows who is and will remain healthy, I believe we can only assume they all are (except for Jelani Williams). Certainly, if Bruner is unavailable again this year it will leave Yale short again. Note though, that Atkinson, Reynolds and Oni still provide Yale with respectable Ivy League rebounding capabilities.

In their freshmen seasons, Scott and Williams contributed, but nothing like Bruner. As guards, it could simply have been because Foreman and Wood were ahead of them. On the other hand, as a freshman, in 22 minutes per game, Bruner averaged over 10ppg, 6.6 rpg, and 2 blocks per game. I believe he led the league in blocks per minute. A 4* recruit, he was in the running for ROY, DOY, and might have received some level of all-ivy recognition.

Defensively, a healthy Bruner will be a significant and - yes - dramatic addition. He has a flair for intimidating blocks and exciting dunks. Yale has an abundance of guards, but without Bruner Yale was left to rely on the freshman Atkinson and a versatile but less athletic Reynolds. In the tournament, Atkinson got in foul trouble very early, severely impacting Yale's ability to handle a larger Penn squad. Interestingly, the knock against Yale in past years has been its lack of depth. If Bruner is healthy, that won't be an issue this year.

This stands alone and has nothing to do with Scott and Williams. They may be awesome, but unlike Bruner, they have yet to evidence that on the court.
This is consistent with Bruner being a top 150/200 recruit, and choosing Yale over Clemson and other Power 5 offers. Scott and Williams may be just what Penn needs, but they were not considered at that level coming out of HS.

If I seem to be impressed with Bruner, it's because I was impressed watching him two years ago when he could hold his own against the league's top bigs. I may be equally impressed when Scott and Williams get their chance.



 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3888

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-18-18 11:38 AM - Post#260472    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I respect your opinion and Mike's opinion a lot so went back to see if I was missing anything. I think I did.

Trey Phills - I haven't been so impressed with him because he hasn't been very good in the games I've seen him play. Maybe it had less to do with him and more to do with the defense played against him because his overall numbers are better than I thought they'd be. I'm still not totally sold on him but he's a plus Ivy starter based on numbers.

I haven't seen enough of a healthy Jordan Bruner to evaluate. Healthy Bruner - if that is a possibility - would be an All-Ivy caliber player. And that would give Yale at least 4 better than average starters. Such a strong lineup would move players down in the pecking order where they rightfully belong - for example I think Reynolds is stretched as a 30 minute starter but would be a good asset as a 15-20 minute role player.

I still expect Yale to underperform. Bruner has a tricky injury that has a good chance to limit his effectiveness. As much as I feel I underestimated Phills, he does have a habit of not showing up for games against stiffer competition. I believe Frosh and untested players have large uncertainty bars, it seems that Yale's are optimistically priced (I have no idea whether the optimism is warranted, I'm not an expert). And - biggest reason - Jones is a mediocre coach.

All in all, I guess I'll stand with putting Yale on the Princeton-Penn tier instead of closer to Harvard's tier. Brown may surprise and join them. And while Harvard should be the favorite, I don't consider them to be an overwhelming one.


 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1919

Reg: 02-15-15
08-18-18 12:37 PM - Post#260474    
    In response to TheLine

HVG

That’s not at all the point I am making. My point is tha Penn, with just the healthy players returning, is better than Yale with their healthy players returning. If Bruner manages to stay on the court for a full season, that may change things but not 80 KP spots. Princeton lost the DPOY in Bell and have no one to match up w Penn’s bigs. Harvard is the favorite IF Towns AND Aiken are back fully healthy.

Penn is the reigning Ivy Champ with 6 of 8 rotational players returning. 3 teams aren’t jumping 10-50 spots past them from 20-60 spots behind them in my opinion. Penn should be in the mix for a repeat title.



 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3550

Reg: 02-04-06
Re: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-18-18 01:59 PM - Post#260475    
    In response to mrjames

"I'll still be checking in from time to time, and I hope to get back to covering the league in the future. But I need to be realistic about my time, and this seems like it has to be on my cut list."

I'm hurt that you'd put enjoying your growing family ahead of kibitzing with a querulous bunch of obsessives. Where are your values?

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
09-10-18 09:13 AM - Post#261072    
    In response to SRP

Busting Brackets out with 2018-19 predictions:
1. Harvard
2. Yale
3. Penn
4. Princeton
5. Brown
6. Cornell
7. Columbia
8. Brown

Author shows deeper familiarity than the standard prognosticator, and his logic echoes recent posts here (coincidence or 'research'?). However, he does make some mistakes and interesting observations:
- Dartmouth: rebuilding;
- Columbia: has Columbia 7th with Faulds incorrectly assumed to be returning. Loves Smith/Adlesh, but concerns about frontcourt and defense;
- Cornell: loss of Gettings or would have been competitive to make tournament;
- Brown: picked 5th largely on incorrect statement that Brown has only 1 player listed as 6'6" or above. Lauds backcourt;
- Princeton: author believes that Cannady/Llewellyn + Stephens (incorrectly listed as a guard) will get Princeton into the tournament. Concerns about young froncourt (Much, Desrosiers) but no mention of Aririguzoh or Gladson);
- Penn: projected 3rd because although balanced with depth, author believes that the better teams in the league will be improved over last year whereas Penn has to replace two top scorers;
- Yale: projected to finish 2nd based on Bruner's return, versatility of Reynolds/Oni + strong backcourt. No mention of Atkinson at all;
- Harvard: favorite based on talent and continued improvement of those who were underclassmen and will now be juniors. In possibly his most insightful (but probably incorrect) observation, notes lack of a true point guard and suggests that Spencer Freedman could eventually start in that role.

Overall, the author concludes that after a youthful 2017-18 the league will be dominated by upperclassmen. This experience/improvement is cited for Harvard, Yale, Princeton and Brown. Has Penn replacing key losses and moving sideways, but not declining.

Key assumption: players such as Bruner, Towns and Aiken are healthy.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 09-10-18 09:17 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1919

Reg: 02-15-15
09-10-18 09:48 AM - Post#261075    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Does he list Brown 2x or is that your typo? Assume Dartmouth is 8th.

As an aside and to clarify: Penn does not lose its top 2 scorers (Betley and AJ) only 2 of the top 6.

 
AntiUngvar 
Sophomore
Posts: 141

Age: 63
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
09-10-18 02:14 PM - Post#261082    
    In response to PennFan10

Dartmouth, in the eight hole.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-10-18 08:12 PM - Post#261092    
    In response to PennFan10

My bad - yes, Dartmouth was picked 8th

Here's the link:
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/09/09/ivy-league -...

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-10-18 08:18 PM - Post#261095    
    In response to PennFan10

I was repeating from the article which says Penn is losing 2 of its 4 double digit scorers. Understand how my language could be construed different ways.

 
AntiUngvar 
Sophomore
Posts: 141

Age: 63
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
09-11-18 08:47 AM - Post#261102    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Thank you for your efforts in researching and posting this information; seems the writer put quite a bit of himself into the essay, too!


 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1010

Reg: 10-20-14
09-16-18 07:21 PM - Post#261344    
    In response to AntiUngvar

Busting Brackets looks at Top 10 major recruits for 2018-2019.

https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/09/16/ncaa-baske t...

- 10. Noah Kirkwood – Shooting guard – Harvard

6-foot-7 versatile guard Noah Kirkwood will be one player to keep an eye on for the Harvard Crimson. Head coach Tommy Amaker was busy on the recruiting trail with his 2018 class, securing the Canadian native over the likes of George Washington, Tulane, and Pittsburgh.

Kirkwood ranks 128th overall in the 2018 recruiting class and is arguably the best Canadian prospect after turning in a productive high school career. He attended Ashbury College High School in Ontario, where he led his team to a record of 40-0. During the 2017-18, he attended Northfield Mount Hermon (MA) where he averaged 15.3 points, 6.7 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 38 percent from 3-point range.

His versatility will be something to keep an eye on for Harvard. He was also a member of the U-16, U-17 and U-19 Canadian national team, winning both a gold and silver medal during his prep days. All that experience should pay dividends for the Crimson in the Ivy League and if it heeds positive results, look for Kirkwood to make the jump to the NBA.

- 9. Jaelyn Llewellyn – Point guard – Princeton

The Harvard Crimson aren’t the only Ivy League team securing top recruits. The Princeton Tigers secured a solid addition in point guard Jaelyn Llewellyn, a player who could be a Day One starter for them in 2018-19.

Llewellyn chose the Tigers over Power 5 schools like Florida, Clemson and his father’s alma mater of Wake Forest to better his backup plan after basketball. The 6-foot-2, 160-pound point guard finished ranked 99th in the country after his senior season at Virginia Episcopal School. While his commitment took some by surprise, his impact in the Ivy League shouldn’t be taken as one when he performs at a high level.

Llewellyn has sneaky athleticism as well as a smooth floor game that will compliment the Princeton offense well. As another playmaker for the Tigers, Llewellyn will be one player teams will have to key in on or he’ll make them pay. His growth with Princeton in 2018-19 will be something to keep an eye on. If all goes well, he could be another Ivy League player to make the jump to the league.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1919

Reg: 02-15-15
09-17-18 08:49 AM - Post#261364    
    In response to rbg

Seriously? All of a sudden we have not just one, but two, recruits who will "...make the jump to the NBA"? No one does it in forever and now two HS recruits are going to lead the Ivy League to the promised land of NBA talent?

I am sure these two are fine players but, I'll take the other side of "jump to the league" bet.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-20-18 11:00 AM - Post#261459    
    In response to PennFan10

Bart Torvik rankings for Harvard, Yale and especially Penn moving upwards:

#67 Harvard
#110 Yale
#117 Penn
#136 Princeton

Anyone know why there is movement now?

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3888

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
09-20-18 11:41 AM - Post#261464    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

He may have all these teams somewhat higher than they should be. Harvard's ranking only makes sense if both Towns and Aiken are healthy.

The relative tiers are what I said they should be earlier in the thread.

Where is Brown? I like them as a sleeper pick.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19656

Reg: 11-21-04
09-20-18 12:17 PM - Post#261466    
    In response to TheLine

So do I--I think they may be better than Princeton this year. They have 2 of the most electric players in the league. But I think the projections are based on the rankings of incoming freshmen for Princeton, something that failed as a predictor last year.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
09-20-18 12:18 PM - Post#261467    
    In response to TheLine

#67 Harvard - Conf W-L 11-3; Bid 45.3%
#110 Yale - 9-5; 37.8%
#117 Penn - 9-5; 15.6%
#136 Princeton - 8-6: 9.9%
#219 Brown - 5-9; 0.3%
#246 Cornell - 5-9; 0
#258 Columbia - 4-10; 0
#261 Cornell - 4-10; 0

Yes, the low predictions for Brown surprise me as well.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 09-20-18 12:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1010

Reg: 10-20-14
09-20-18 12:20 PM - Post#261468    
    In response to TheLine

Looking at Bart Torvik's numbers from the end of 2017-2018 and the predictions for 2018-2019.

End of 2017-2018

Penn 111
Harvard 128
Princeton 178
Yale 197
Columbia 216
Cornell 248
Brown 260
Dartmouth 303

Prediction 2018-2019 (as of 9/20/18)

Harvard 67
Yale 110
Penn 117
Princeton 136
Brown 219
Cornell 246
Columbia 258
Dartmouth 261


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5268

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-20-18 01:38 PM - Post#261472    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Bart changed his formula slightly to completely eliminate garbage time (determined by Bill James' safe lead algorithm) from his ratings. That caused minor changes to the baseline for projecting this year and thus some fluctuations to what the model spits out.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
PhD Student
Posts: 1068

Age: 58
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
Re: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
09-20-18 03:05 PM - Post#261477    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
#67 Harvard - Conf W-L 11-3; Bid 45.3%
#110 Yale - 9-5; 37.8%
#117 Penn - 9-5; 15.6%
#136 Princeton - 8-6: 9.9%
#219 Brown - 5-9; 0.3%
#246 Cornell - 5-9; 0
#258 Columbia - 4-10; 0
#261 Cornell - 4-10; 0

Yes, the low predictions for Brown surprise me as well.



You've got Cornell in there twice and dropped Dartmouth. That wasn't intentional, was it? I didn't know it was possible to be relegated out of the Ivies.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1182

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-20-18 03:34 PM - Post#261481    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Oops.
Second time I’ve omitted Dartmouth
Torvik has Dartmouth 8th

 
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