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Username Post: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects        (Topic#21759)
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1035

Reg: 10-20-14
08-06-18 07:58 AM - Post#259964    

The Stepian website lists its Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects for next season and 3 Ivy Leaguers make the list.

They have Brown's Desmond Cambridge #5, Harvard's Seth Towns #6 and Yale's Jordan Bruner at #7. Cornell's Matt Morgan is in the Honorable Mention section at #15.

In terms of their NBA roles, Cambridge is listed as an explosive microwave scorer, Towns is a shot-making/shot-creating wing, and Bruner is versatile two-way forward.

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/07/29/10-mid-maj or...

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
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Age: 46
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-06-18 11:40 PM - Post#260001    
    In response to rbg

I like that the talent is distributed across the league.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1202

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-13-18 10:54 PM - Post#260243    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Just looked at Tovik's projections. He projects likelihood of making NCAA tournament:

Harvard 44%
Yale 39.5%
Penn 10.9%
Princeton 10.4%
Brown 0.5%
Cornell 0.3%
Dartmouth 0.1%
Columbia 0.1%

That's 105.8%

Does that imply a 5.8% likelihood of 2 bid Ivy?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
08-14-18 07:28 AM - Post#260249    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Anyone who puts Penn only .5% ahead of Princeton is not basing the prediction at all on last year's performance. I expect Princeton to start turning it around this year. I don't expect them to contend. But that's fine---I prefer getting no respect.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
08-14-18 09:32 AM - Post#260252    
    In response to palestra38

I assume Yale's % is so high because they are hosting. Otherwise I fear the Jordan Bruner effect!

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-14-18 05:18 PM - Post#260273    
    In response to PennFan10

Seems so.

Torvik has Harvard (#72) ahead of Yale (#114) which is ahead of Penn (#139) and then Princeton (#149).

Torvik appears to give weight to returning minutes (and possessions), adjusted for injuries. As previously discussed in this forum, last year's graduating class was not very consequential, except for Penn which graduated Wood and Foreman (Cornell, of course, ended up losing Gettings). Harvard returns over 99% (which has to be among the highest in the nation), and Yale returns over 92%, which must include Bruner. With Bruner and Mason, Yale was possibly the league's 2017-18 favorite. I's assuming that Princeton is being recognized as only losing Bell and maturing its freshmen.

Yes, Yale at 39% must credit home court advantage as Torvik's overall gap between Harvard and Yale outsizes the 5% gap in tournament probability.

So, yes, Bruner and Home Court seem to be heavily weighted by Torvik. Back to my original point, I've gathered that the 105% aggregate odds to participate in the tournament assumes Harvard loses in the tournament, possibly to Yale in New Haven, but still makes the field as an at large selection (!).

Thus, a reason posited for a tournament in the first place - 2 bid Ivy - is actually well served by Yale hosting this year's version. Wonder if the Ivy League decision makers took this into consideration?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 08-14-18 05:23 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-15-18 07:30 AM - Post#260283    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I wasn't questioning the Harvard prediction--they have to be considered the favorite (although their best player has been cloaked in Belichick-type secrecy since his injury). Yale is the home team for the playoff (I still think they have to go single admission on each game, but that is a different thread). It's Princeton I don't get at all. They were out of the playoff last year, graduated their second best player and the freshmen were not ready (if they ever will be). Meanwhile, Penn has ready replacements for Foreman--it's the loss of Wood that appears to be a question, but it has 2 redshirted players who are of a very high recruiting background. And the frontcourt will be dominant in this league. So I feel pretty good about things.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1202

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-15-18 10:16 AM - Post#260287    
    In response to palestra38

Certainly, Princeton has upside. Stephens and Cannady are all league, maybe even first team, and the Tigers supposedly have the best freshman in Llewellen to replace Bell, so the variability applies to the deep freshman class and the center position. A lot of options and upside.

Penn has experience, depth and two bigs, but With its graduates and redshirts, Penn has some question marks.

Yale is much more than a sleeper. If Bruner is healthy, then Atkinson, Reynolds and the bevy of talented guards makes the Eli's very very good.

Brown is the sleeper. Can score and run, will need young frontcourt to develop. On any given night ....

I see Cornell without Gettings as a one man show, Dartmouth as rebuilding, and Columbia as reeling and possibly heading to another coaching change.

Certainly I'm biased, but if Towns is healthy the question becomes how a healthy Aiken affects this team. A lot of upside this year and next. Kirkwood (a 6'7" guard) could become a starter by year's end.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
08-15-18 10:20 AM - Post#260288    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Well, I just bought 2 seatbacks for Penn-Harvard up there and we'll see how competitive Penn will be. I think you're overlooking just how good its frontcourt will be this year.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-15-18 11:19 AM - Post#260293    
    In response to palestra38

Who is Yale other than the team Penn beat by a few TD's last March? Outside of HCA does Bruner really make them that much better? They can't play Bruner, Atkinson and Reynolds at the same time. Atkinson was an upside surprise that mitigated the loss of Bruner to some degree. And Mason never played last year so "they were the favorites" is pointless discussion. The "bevy" of talented guards includes some young guys that saw no time at all.

Princeton lost a lot of games last year that one guy does not fix.

Penn lost Foreman and Wood and returns everyone else including Goodman and Donahue. Those are much more known entities than Yale's unproven younger guards.

I don't see the spread between Yale and Penn as that big. And I am not sure I pick Yale on a neutral court. There are far fewer questions about Penn and Harvard and what they return than there are for Yale and Princeton based on unproven player projections.

Edited by PennFan10 on 08-15-18 11:19 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1202

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-15-18 12:03 PM - Post#260295    
    In response to PennFan10

Really? I think you're missing a few things:

1. Yale returns Oni, Phils, Copeland, and Swain as guards. This "bevy" of guards is neither young nor unproven. This could be the best and deepest backcourt in the league. These 4 averaged 43ppg last year, and certainly this backcourt more proven than Woods and backups Goodman and Donahue who averaged 15.1 ppg among themselves. Even if you add Betley (to offset Oni), that's only 29.3 ppg. Oni and Phils were all-league in 2018. Guard talent decisively leans to Yale over Penn.

2. Without Bruner and Mason, Yale beat Penn (with Foreman and Wood) in New Haven and lost by single digits in Philly. Atkinson got in foul trouble in the tournament at the Palestra - a uniquely hostile environment. With a healthy Bruner and maturing sophomore Atkinson, Reynolds becomes a weapon instead of a misplaced backup center (his role in the tournament game, as Atkinson was limited to 21 minutes). At Yale, Atkinson scored 17 points on only 6 shots (no misses!) in 33 minutes. There is a chance that Bruner can be effective on Brodeur. He is strong, long and athletic - think Kuakamensah.

Thus, I think - and likely so does Torvik - that the things unproven about Yale are whether Bruner is healthy and how much Atkinson improves. Penn's uncertainty revolves around its backcourt.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 08-15-18 12:04 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-15-18 12:31 PM - Post#260298    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

"Without Bruner and Mason, Yale beat Penn (with Foreman and Wood) in New Haven and lost by single digits in Philly."

Do you write talking points for Trump? Penn lost by 1 on a bad call and bad coaching decision at Yale after leading the entire game and Yale lost at Penn by 9 in a game Penn led all the way. Then, Penn trounced them in the playoff. Of 120 minutes of play, Penn trailed maybe in 2 minutes or so. To you that becomes the summary above? LOL.


That being said, you are making far too much about Penn losing 2 guys while still having a 5th year senior guard to step up and possibly one of the two best swingmen in the league, not to mention the best offensive center.

Long way to go, of course, but I like Penn's chances this year. They got to the title a year early.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1202

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-15-18 12:45 PM - Post#260300    
    In response to palestra38

All I cited were facts. What you quote is factual.

As for a judgment, I was astonished to read that someone believe's Yale's backcourt is more "unproven" than Penn's.

I never diminished Brodeur.

However, since you think Penn has the best offensive big man, one of the 2 best swingmen in the league and a phenomenal backcourt, then how could Torvik be so wrong?



 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
08-15-18 12:54 PM - Post#260303    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Because he underrates Penn's talent and overrates both Yale's (to a degree) and Princeton's (to a large degree).

Harvard clearly has the best talent, but I don't know that they either have the best coach or scheme for that talent.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
08-15-18 01:31 PM - Post#260306    
    In response to palestra38

Torvik? How could he be so wrong? Well he is basing his opinion, apparantly, on what Yale could have been last year vs what they actually were. How could he have been so wrong last year projecting a healthy Mason? Jordan Bruner has to prove he can actually stay on the court for the better part of a season, which he has yet to do. I don't think there is any comparison between he and AJ Brodeur, who has never missed a game. Bruner can't hold anybody in check from the bench and it's not clear how strong he will be in return. I get that you like Yale a lot more than Penn, but your evaluation makes it seem like Yale has so much more than Penn coming back. Penn pretty much dominated Yale last year and returns 6 of their top 8.Now Yale, with the same guys,are going to be that much better? I don't see it. I expect Yale to be better, perhaps much better. But I don't really expect Penn to go backwards by much, if any. But I could be wrong and Torvik may be right. I wouldn't give his opinion any more credibility just because he publishes it.

I see the Harvard story, obviously. Though I am very interested in the health of Towns and Aiken. And how do they play the level of defense they have played with the combinations they will have out there?

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3923

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
08-15-18 01:51 PM - Post#260307    
    In response to PennFan10

Having seen the games, there was a significant difference in talent between Penn and Yale, though Atkinson is Penn's kryptonite.

I can't see how Yale can be selected as essentially a co-favorite with Harvard.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1202

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
08-15-18 02:50 PM - Post#260311    
    In response to TheLine

I guess this could be an interesting year.

Harvard, Yale, and Penn are universally assumed to be competitive (e.g., headed to the tournament). What I see is that Harvard and Yale will be improved, while Penn is the most likely of the three to go sideways (KP 123 again?). As a Harvard fan, hopefully that's 50 spots behind the Crimson. I guess we on this thread disagree on whether Yale slides in between Harvard and Penn. As pointed out, the availability of Bruner is the wild card. He scares me as an opponent, assuming he's healthy. A true rim protector can influence things in this league. I truly feel he can take both Brodeur and Chris Lewis out of their games as he is just as long and [was] a better jumper.

Last year, Cornell grabbed the 4th tournament slot riding 2 stars. Without Gettings, I see Princeton heading to New Haven, possibly with a challenge from Brown. I hear that Princeton's Llewellyn is a game changer and being underestimated. Brown is lightning in a bottle, so who knows. Both teams are built around some great scorers (e.g., Brown 102, Princeton 100). It would be fun to see Cornell, Columbia or Dartmouth make a run, but don't count on it.

Once at the tournament, we'll see if HCA can propel Yale to the bid, whether Harvard can close it out as the likely favorite, or whether we witness an upset.

Of course, there's a lot to happen before March. We'll see and hope that everyone remains healthy.



 
TheLine 
Postdoc
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Age: 55
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The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-15-18 03:43 PM - Post#260314    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
I guess we on this thread disagree on whether Yale slides in between Harvard and Penn.


I think the question is more whether Yale is on par with Harvard or whether they are at least a couple of notches behind.

Rating Yale as a co-favorite, which is what Torvik is doing, assumes a whole lot of good things happening for Yale that I don't think is warranted. You want to still slot Yale between Harvard and Penn? Fine by me though I'm not sure about it - it might be overselling Yale and underselling Penn.

Harvard is the favorite headed into the season IMO.

For what it's worth, Princeton's KP rating was better than Yale's last year. And Princeton doesn't have a bare cup board. Penn is returning the 2nd best player in the league plus 3 other starters. So how does Torvik have Yale's odds so high? I'm not buying it.


Edited by TheLine on 08-15-18 03:51 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1202

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
The Stepian: IL has 3 of Top 10 Mid-Major Prospects
08-15-18 03:49 PM - Post#260315    
    In response to TheLine

I don't think that Torvik is considering Harvard and Yale as equals. He has Harvard at #72 and Yale at #114, that's a large 44 spot difference. The 44% Harvard vs 39.5% Yale is Torvik's handicapping of the HCA effect of holding the tournament at Yale this year. You may actually be suprised by Torvik's valuation of HCA.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 08-15-18 03:49 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3923

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
08-15-18 03:57 PM - Post#260317    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Torvik's numbers on likelihood of winning the IL

Harvard 44%
Yale 39.5%
Penn 10.9%
Princeton 10.4%

That's making Yale an equal to Harvard. No other way to read it. Seems way more than a HCA but maybe he massively values it since his Yale numeric ranking is closer to Penn/Princeton than Harvard.

And Yale is going to leap from 197 to 114? Based on what?


 
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