UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1116
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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10-04-18 09:33 PM - Post#261972
To add to the speculating about what Penn’s lineup will look like in a month I’ll start a thread on what kind of performance will be required and whether the team will produce that performance. The remarkable progress of the Donahue era means that most years Penn will be in the mix. How about this year’s talents?
If one uses last year as a guide Penn’s prospects are good. Penn clearly outperformed the other teams, and by significant margins, save for Harvard. Much has been said about the strength of the league this year, but that will take major improvements by Princeton and Yale, each more than sixty Pomeroy ranks behind Penn. Both will probably be better this year, but by that much?
So, can Penn hold or improve its place. Let’s consider what happened last year. Despite the loss of its second best player M Howard, and the arrival of only one significant new player, Woods, the team improved from 171 to 125 Pomeroy. No major injuries helped. While it’s true that the loss of Foreman and Wood out weighs the loss of Howard, this year’s bunch should benefit from several new arrivals. Washington and Wang are likely to contribute, and the other three, Jackson, Imeguwu and Ryan have potential. The balance, then is more loss but more gain. Let’s call it neutral to be conservative.
However, the big achievement last year was the improvement of Foreman, Wood and Max, and the consistent play of the two stars, Betley and Brodeur. If Steve and his staff really do have developmental magic, then prospects are good this year because improvement is clearly possible for a number of incumbents. As rising Juniors, Goodman, Betley and Brodeur still have room for improvement. As importantly, Scott and Simmons should now be ready to make contributions. Hell, we could even get some meaningful minutes from Hamilton and Silpe. Somewhere in this collection of latent talent should be enough to improve the team.
That had better occur, because Harvard losses no one and gains two big additions in Aiken and the Freshman Freedman. As importantly, they have at least as much incumbent talent to improve on as Penn. This means that Harvard should be a sub 100 Pomeroy team as most Ivy Champs are. So Penn will have to improve significantly to compete.
I am hopeful that Penn will compete for three reasons. First the star core, Brodeur and Betley are clearly in the same class as the more heralded Lewis and Townes. Their Pomeroy scores are just two points behind, and they are the reigning champs. They may not look as impressive but they perform. Second, Penn has significant depth of talent from which gains in performance can come. Finally, in Donahue, Penn has a coach who can collect good talent and make it excellent. I remind you that Penn played Kansas as well as any of their Dance opponents until, the Cats in the final. Yes, Amaker will go down as a great Ivy coach, clearly the best recruiter in the modern era. But Steve appears to have the advantage in molding and extending the talent he has.
One more point. Penn will go as far as two positions will take them. Priority #1 is point guard. I am a big optimist about Devon. Still the jury is out. Priority #2 is a second outside shooter to replace Caleb. Without these two contributions, as yet unknows, the team will struggle. It’s the kind of problem that baffled Jerome Allen. Steve knows what he has to do. I think he and his hard-working players will do it. It may still mean a second-place finish. But will we complain if the second place is 24 wins and a Pomeroy 75 rating? I sure will not, have survived the 10-year drought.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1877
Reg: 11-29-04
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Performance this year 10-05-18 02:17 AM - Post#261976
In response to UPIA1968
You make some interesting points.
If our season is resting on Goodman, I consider it a wildcard. Towards the end of the season before last, I really liked his speed, his crazy fast first step, and that he played in control. His on the ball defense was quite good too. Last season, he was too unsteady and he has not a great shooter or finisher. He has been a moderate assist man.
I do think people are underestimating the loss of Wood. At the end of the day, we need someone who can put the ball in the bucket and prevent defenses from sagging on Brodeur. Aside from Betley I just can't think of who it will be. We don't have a ton of shooters.
Edited by Penndemonium on 10-05-18 02:18 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Performance this year 10-05-18 07:26 AM - Post#261979
In response to Penndemonium
This may sound a little strange, but I thought the Coach might have gotten a shade too enamored with Wood during the Ivy season last year. He gave us our best offensive lineup (and frankly was the focal point of the offense when he was on the floor), but our best defensive lineup was the starting five. Losing Caleb’s offensive skill set will hurt, but if it means more time for Max on the floor, that may not be the end of the world. IF what we get out of that spot is simply a 3 shooter to take some pressure off Betley and crest some space. I continue to think there is a good chance that guy is Donahue.
This sets up similarly to last year where whether we play big or small may depend a lot simply on who emerges — last year Foreman, Woods, and Wood all stepped forward, and that meant we played small a lot in the Ivy season. With two of those guys gone, this could be the year where we go fully in the direction PF10 wants and play with 2 bigs all the time. But i could also see Goodman and one of the other guards stepping up and keeping us playing small — I think we like the matchups that 4 guards create for Betley/Woods/Brodeur in particular. Hopefully the depth is there where two or three guys really step up. Like everybody else, I am pretty confident the Coach will figure it out.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1169
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: Performance this year 10-05-18 09:06 AM - Post#261987
In response to SomeGuy
IF what we get out of that spot is simply a 3 shooter to take some pressure off Betley and create some space. I continue to think there is a good chance that guy is Donahue.
I think by the start of Ivy season, that guy's going to be Wang. Not sure how he fits defensively, however.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1877
Reg: 11-29-04
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Re: Performance this year 10-05-18 12:50 PM - Post#262025
In response to SomeGuy
You make a great point that we can get something different from a replacement player and I agree on the big/small point. Donahue was a master of lineups last year. Our team made a living by getting just enough points. Max and AJ were able to draw defenses in, and Betley was the priority outside defensive assignment. Wood had the combination of being able to hit the three and having a sneaky good ball fake and baseline drive to the hoop.
The game has evolved to a place where the 3 pointer is so important - you are never out of a game if you can shoot. In Big 5 games, tourney games, and against just a few Ivy teams, we need to have some skilled options. Our team shot a ludicrous amount of threes and had a below average 3 pt. percentage. I shudder to think about who our replacement 3pt shooter will be and what our team percentage will be.
I'm a huge fan of Goodman, Silpe, Scott, and even Hamilton. I just don't know who will represent a real threat against the better competition and give us a shooting lineup when we need it. Donahue could have been that player but he decided to try to be a Steph Curry anytime/anywhere shooter instead of finding the shots and spaces he can actually make reliably.
This may sound a little strange, but I thought the Coach might have gotten a shade too enamored with Wood during the Ivy season last year. He gave us our best offensive lineup (and frankly was the focal point of the offense when he was on the floor), but our best defensive lineup was the starting five. Losing Caleb’s offensive skill set will hurt, but if it means more time for Max on the floor, that may not be the end of the world. IF what we get out of that spot is simply a 3 shooter to take some pressure off Betley and crest some space. I continue to think there is a good chance that guy is Donahue.
This sets up similarly to last year where whether we play big or small may depend a lot simply on who emerges — last year Foreman, Woods, and Wood all stepped forward, and that meant we played small a lot in the Ivy season. With two of those guys gone, this could be the year where we go fully in the direction PF10 wants and play with 2 bigs all the time. But i could also see Goodman and one of the other guards stepping up and keeping us playing small — I think we like the matchups that 4 guards create for Betley/Woods/Brodeur in particular. Hopefully the depth is there where two or three guys really step up. Like everybody else, I am pretty confident the Coach will figure it out.
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