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Username Post: Ivy League preseason power rankings        (Topic#21931)
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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10-11-18 05:14 PM - Post#262423    

Ivy League preseason power rankings: Harvard is primed for a return to the NCAA Tournament
The Crimson are good. And not just for an Ivy League team.

Ivy League preseason power rankings
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Go Green 
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10-12-18 01:10 PM - Post#262485    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball


Here's hoping that the Dartmouth basketball players make the preseason predictions look as silly as the Dartmouth football players did!



 
rbg 
PhD Student
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Reg: 10-20-14
10-25-18 07:33 AM - Post#263440    
    In response to Go Green

Matt Norlander at CBS Sports has ranked all of the teams in Division 1. Here is where he has the Ivy teams.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ne ws/...

80. Harvard
The (healthy) return of Bryce Aiken and getting Seth Towns and Chris Lewis back means Tommy Amaker has three of the 10 best players in the Ivy League. After three seasons away, the Crimson should return to the NCAAs -- although that's more of a question now since the Ivy League (unfortunately) went to a four-team tournament to decide its auto bid.

141. Pennsylvania
The Quakers will be a quality Ivy League team, but losing Darnell Foreman and Caleb Wood to graduation is going to be an issue. Juniors A.J. Brodeur or Ryan Betley should get even better -- this team could wind up as the best in the IL ... by March 2020.

174. Yale
As some readers know, I live in Connecticut and am not so far from Yale. So with that in mind, I plan on making the drive to New Haven and watching Miye Oni play this season. The junior is a vintage Ivy League workhorse.

196. Princeton
Jaelin Llewellyn's mix with Princeton's experienced guards is going to be an interesting dynamic. How the team shares the ball with Devin Cannady (best player) may take some time. Tigers figure to be better than last season.

244. Brown
Going to be in almost every Ivy League contest because the Bears return everyone of note, most notably sophomore shooting guard Desmond Cambridge.

258. Cornell
Cornell really took a hit losing stretch 4 Stone Gettings to Arizona. The team's best player is still Matt Morgan, who I think has a chance for Ivy League Player of the Year.

271. Columbia
Junior point guard Mike Smith is the Lion's best chance to spoil predictions and get this team into the top four of the Ivy League.

294. Dartmouth
Ha. And what I wrote directly above this also has to apply to Hanover, New Hampshire's own proud university as well. Dartmouth again will be cellar-dwelling in the Ivy.

(What he wrote directly above Dartmouth was this -
293. Southern Utah
Todd Simon pushes the pace, which can help (and hurt) when the roster lacks length. This university is located in Cedar City, Utah, which I'm sure is a pretty great place to live for all that the environment provides ... but it's also got to be among the 10 most isolated universities in D-I.)



 
PennFan10 
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Reg: 02-15-15
10-25-18 08:37 AM - Post#263444    
    In response to rbg

Nothing new here. I'd like to know Harvard's rank if they are without Towns and/or Aiken. Still the favorite? Still top 100?

 
Quakers03 
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10-25-18 12:12 PM - Post#263478    
    In response to PennFan10

Is being without Towns/Aiken in play? Guess I should venture over to the Harvard board...

 
palestra38 
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Reg: 11-21-04
10-25-18 12:14 PM - Post#263479    
    In response to Quakers03

They aren't talking--I commented periodically on their two big players' injuries all summer and got nothing. They are playing it very close to the vest

 
PennFan10 
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10-25-18 01:06 PM - Post#263502    
    In response to palestra38

I have said they are conspicuous by their absence. Holding them out of pre season scrimmages, etc is indicative of more serious recovery, not players who have been killing it this summer and fall after not playing for 6-10 months. Harvard folks will say they are holding them out for the serious competition. While there is a chance that is true, the little evidence we have says there may still be issues.

 
Quakers03 
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10-25-18 01:20 PM - Post#263504    
    In response to PennFan10

We never got ANYTHING after the injury in the Palestra, did we?

 
rbg 
PhD Student
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Reg: 10-20-14
10-25-18 01:25 PM - Post#263506    
    In response to Quakers03

I posted this on the Harvard-BC Scrimmage thread, but figured I would put it here as well....

Last year, I seem to remember that Jon Rothstein would tweet information about Aiken's playing status on Friday afternoons during the Ivy schedule.

With Harvard giving generic answers to their (Aiken and Towns) status, I'm guessing Rothstein would be the media person most likely to know what is going on with those two.

 
PennFan10 
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10-25-18 01:29 PM - Post#263507    
    In response to Quakers03

Nothing publicly

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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Ivy League preseason power rankings
10-30-18 03:31 PM - Post#263825    
    In response to PennFan10

SB Nation just ran a thorough analysis of the Ivy League's respective OOC schedules.

They look from a lot of perspectives, but "Super" scale as follows:
40 Harvard
62 Yale
116 Princeton
146 Penn
208 Cornell
282 Brown
308 Dartmouth
328 Columbia

The article uses as a baseline teams scheduling to their own anticipated pre-season ranking. The analysis concludes that Harvard and Yale 'overscheduled' when compared to their anticipated and historical KenPom rankings, a result that is said to possibly help those squads come March. This analysis concludes that Columbia dramatically underscheduled.


Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 10-30-18 03:40 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
rbg 
PhD Student
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Reg: 10-20-14
10-31-18 07:42 AM - Post#263868    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Sports Illustrated Rankings:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 18/10/31/c...

1. Harvard #78
2. Yale #112
3. Penn #128
4. Princeton #186
5. Cornell #219
6. Columbia #224
7. Brown #241
8. Dartmouth #283

SI's Molly Geary also list Harvard as her Mid-Major Team to Watch:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 18/10/31/c...

Geary: Harvard. The Crimson came within four points of making the NCAA tournament last March, and that was without Bryce Aiken, the 2016–17 Ivy League Rookie of the Year who missed half of his sophomore season with injury. Aiken was part of coach Tommy Amaker's top-25 recruiting class back in 2016, and that group of juniors is ready to cash in in 2018–19. Aiken is healthy, Seth Towns is back as the reigning conference player of the year and Chris Lewis returns as a double-digit scorer—not to mention Harvard's next five leaders in points per game.


 
palestra38 
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10-31-18 07:46 AM - Post#263870    
    In response to rbg

How do all these people know that Towns and Aiken are fully healthy when Harvard releases no information about their injuries?

 
Silver Maple 
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Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
10-31-18 09:07 AM - Post#263896    
    In response to palestra38

They don't.

All this gushing over Harvard makes me very happy.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
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Loc: New Jersey
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10-31-18 09:43 AM - Post#263900    
    In response to Silver Maple

Yale thread cites Yale student article seemingly confirming that Bruner is healthy and that big things are expected.

SI does the same for Towns and Aiken.

Looks like it's going to be an up year for the League! Hope everyone remains healthy across the league this year.

 
mrjames 
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-18 06:19 PM - Post#264011    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

ESPN’s BPI has four Ivies in the top 100 and two more in the top 200 and all within the top 225, because #YOLO.

 
PennFan10 
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11-01-18 08:59 PM - Post#264018    
    In response to mrjames

On the coaches chat Stevie D talks about the future and the possibility of a 2 bid Ivy. All the coaches were unanimous that the ESPN deal would increase exposure and would lead to higher quality recruits and ultimately a more competitive league nationally. They all clearly believe 2 bid Ivy is a realistic possibility.

 
Silver Maple 
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11-02-18 07:56 AM - Post#264030    
    In response to PennFan10

Yes. And soon we'll be living in domed cities and taking food pills.

 
palestra38 
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11-02-18 08:02 AM - Post#264031    
    In response to Silver Maple

Soylent Green is people.

 
TheLine 
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11-02-18 09:59 AM - Post#264042    
    In response to palestra38

Which Ivy is recruiting Draymond's younger brother?


 
bradley 
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11-03-18 04:47 PM - Post#264148    
    In response to mrjames

I remember last year that there was considerable optimism prior to the start of the season. Injuries and poor performance sobered expectations during non-conference play. Will this year be different -- time will tell.

Other than Harvard, most of the IL teams have question marks. Will the Ivies receive two bids -- possible but very questionable.

Let's hope that this year is a turn around year but .....

 
Quakers03 
Professor
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11-03-18 10:25 PM - Post#264164    
    In response to bradley

Does anyone seriously consider this year to be a possibility? Next year, however...

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11856

Reg: 12-02-04
Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-03-18 10:48 PM - Post#264167    
    In response to Quakers03

I think we will take a slight step back this year, but by the end of next season this has the potential to be one of the better squads we've seen in West Philly in some time.

Edited by penn nation on 11-03-18 10:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
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11-03-18 11:02 PM - Post#264168    
    In response to Quakers03

Hard to see Penn as an at large, if that is what you mean. Seems like the way to 2 bids this year is for Harvard to be crazy good and then go belly up in the Ivy tourney. Seems like they could have that type of upside if everything breaks right. But it would involve everyone being healthy and Kirkwood stepping right in. And even then, Amaker would have to focus more on OOC than he has historically.

 
bradley 
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11-04-18 08:04 AM - Post#264174    
    In response to SomeGuy

I agree with your scenario that it is highly unlikely for the Ivies to receive two bids unless a very good IL team, Harvard, loses in IvyMadness to a team that would not have received a bid unless the tournament. Problem with that scenario is that a very good IL team, i.e. potentially Harvard, will have to do very well in non-league play plus the other IL teams as a group will have to perform well in non-conference play and finally the very good IL team loses in IvyMadnes -- a lot of buts.

Tigers were pretty good two years ago but they blew the opportunity based on non-conference results plus Ivies were not very strong as a group.

Optimism understandably reigns at the beginning of the Fall campaign.

 
PennFan10 
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Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 09:03 AM - Post#264179    
    In response to bradley

Harvard may go 0-12 in the non conf games without Towns and Aiken (followed by 14-12 with them), so I wouldn’t bet too heavily on the 6 standard deviation 2 bid tail narrative.

Edited by PennFan10 on 11-04-18 09:04 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 08:41 PM - Post#264209    
    In response to PennFan10

We are not getting a second bid this season, no matter what.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 09:40 PM - Post#264211    
    In response to palestra38

It will be tough to get that second bid until the bottom half of the league gets better. The the differential between the Harvard and Dartmouth is two disparate. You can schedule a strong non conference schedule, but half your conference games are against low ranked competition. That said this year and next year are probably the best in recent history to even consider 2 Bid Ivy.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
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11-04-18 10:33 PM - Post#264215    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Here's my prediction: the NCAA selection committee will never give the Ivy League a second bid. Never.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 11:18 PM - Post#264219    
    In response to Silver Maple

  • Silver Maple Said:
Here's my prediction: the NCAA selection committee will never give the Ivy League a second bid. Never.



I will definitely take the other side of “never”. That’s an easy bet to make.

Some really smart people once thought the world was flat and subprime mortgages would never be a problem, never.

Edited by PennFan10 on 11-04-18 11:18 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 05:23 AM - Post#264221    
    In response to PennFan10

Some people apparently still think the world is flat.

And it's not that some people thought subprime mortgages would not be a problem---they thought that they never would be THEIR problem. And for some of them, that was correct...at least in terms of making money and never serving time

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 06:41 AM - Post#264226    
    In response to palestra38

S&P and Moody’s rated many of the subprime mortgages as investment grade which means they thought less than 5-6% defaults could happen in a worst case scenario. Defaults were 20-40%. Thousand of investors bought those securities after careful analysis and invested in them as the “safe” part of their portfolio.

And only Trump still tho is the world is flat. Never is a long time.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 07:43 AM - Post#264227    
    In response to PennFan10

Right, but what happened to S&P and Moody's? Nothing. And they kept all their fees. That was the Ponzi scheme aspect of the subprime crisis.

But just about everyone made out just fine except homeowners who didn't take out cash and employees of the banks which failed.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11856

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 08:00 AM - Post#264229    
    In response to palestra38

And they knew full well they were giving their bracha to a pile of garbage.

By the way, we are starting to see the same thing all over again today.

  • palestra38 Said:
Right, but what happened to S&P and Moody's? Nothing. And they kept all their fees. That was the Ponzi scheme aspect of the subprime crisis.





 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
11-05-18 10:45 AM - Post#264249    
    In response to penn nation

Many pension funds, private banks, and endowments lost millions on securities they thought were safe. Point is, many smart people thought that was a “never”

2 bid Ivy is a lot more realistic than another 2008 debacle

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
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11-05-18 05:25 PM - Post#264333    
    In response to PennFan10

Conspiracy Theory

If Yale truly has a NBA prospect in Oni, and Yale ends the year with the best record among the Ivies, but loses in the finals of the Ivy Tourney we might just get a 2Bid Ivy. The invisible hand might move them into a 2nd bid.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11856

Reg: 12-02-04
11-05-18 05:43 PM - Post#264335    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

  • GoBigGreenBasketball Said:
The invisible hand might move them into a 2nd bid.



That's Mike, not Adam, Smith.

 
mrjames 
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-05-18 06:23 PM - Post#264337    
    In response to penn nation

Penn is +4.5 at George Mason tomorrow. If we take the relatively stable GMU ranking of high 110s across KenPom and Bart Torvik’s site as the reference point, that means Vegas would have Penn in the 130-135 range - or sorta right in between where Bart and KenPom had Penn.

 
bradley 
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11-05-18 08:06 PM - Post#264341    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Yale should be better for sure but the likelihood of getting a bid regardless of IL Tournament sounds like what Alan Greenspan once called "irrational exuberance". With Towns and Aikens missing at least a minimum of some non-league games, I would like to see the odds that Vegas would currently give of having the IL sending two teams to the Big Dance. Vegas probably thinks that there is a far better chance for one IL team with a 16 seed for the second year in a row.

Hopefully, we will be pleasantly surprised.

 
mrjames 
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-05-18 09:32 PM - Post#264354    
    In response to bradley

First step here would be to understand the new NCAA metric that’s replacing the RPI and then the bigger issue of whether or not they plan to move away from Top 50 Ws (not record in those games, but just pure wins) being such an influential factor. The move away from the RPI, the home/road adj tiers AND a move to “record against tier I” versus just raw tier I wins would certainly create a much more friendly climate for mid-major selection.

I’m a skeptic until we see this play out a bit.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
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Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
11-05-18 09:40 PM - Post#264355    
    In response to mrjames

I hear you regarding the metrics but I am a bit of a skeptic as to how well the Ivies will actually perform in non-conference play --- I hope that I am wrong. There are many good basketball teams out there with depth off the bench but maybe, the Ivies will get on a good roll.

 
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