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Username Post: Ivy League preseason power rankings        (Topic#21931)
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 814

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
11-03-18 04:47 PM - Post#264148    
    In response to mrjames

I remember last year that there was considerable optimism prior to the start of the season. Injuries and poor performance sobered expectations during non-conference play. Will this year be different -- time will tell.

Other than Harvard, most of the IL teams have question marks. Will the Ivies receive two bids -- possible but very questionable.

Let's hope that this year is a turn around year but .....

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8426

Reg: 12-07-04
11-03-18 10:25 PM - Post#264164    
    In response to bradley

Does anyone seriously consider this year to be a possibility? Next year, however...

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11855

Reg: 12-02-04
Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-03-18 10:48 PM - Post#264167    
    In response to Quakers03

I think we will take a slight step back this year, but by the end of next season this has the potential to be one of the better squads we've seen in West Philly in some time.

Edited by penn nation on 11-03-18 10:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4684

Reg: 11-22-04
11-03-18 11:02 PM - Post#264168    
    In response to Quakers03

Hard to see Penn as an at large, if that is what you mean. Seems like the way to 2 bids this year is for Harvard to be crazy good and then go belly up in the Ivy tourney. Seems like they could have that type of upside if everything breaks right. But it would involve everyone being healthy and Kirkwood stepping right in. And even then, Amaker would have to focus more on OOC than he has historically.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 814

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
11-04-18 08:04 AM - Post#264174    
    In response to SomeGuy

I agree with your scenario that it is highly unlikely for the Ivies to receive two bids unless a very good IL team, Harvard, loses in IvyMadness to a team that would not have received a bid unless the tournament. Problem with that scenario is that a very good IL team, i.e. potentially Harvard, will have to do very well in non-league play plus the other IL teams as a group will have to perform well in non-conference play and finally the very good IL team loses in IvyMadnes -- a lot of buts.

Tigers were pretty good two years ago but they blew the opportunity based on non-conference results plus Ivies were not very strong as a group.

Optimism understandably reigns at the beginning of the Fall campaign.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 09:03 AM - Post#264179    
    In response to bradley

Harvard may go 0-12 in the non conf games without Towns and Aiken (followed by 14-12 with them), so I wouldn’t bet too heavily on the 6 standard deviation 2 bid tail narrative.

Edited by PennFan10 on 11-04-18 09:04 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 08:41 PM - Post#264209    
    In response to PennFan10

We are not getting a second bid this season, no matter what.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 555

Age: 46
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 09:40 PM - Post#264211    
    In response to palestra38

It will be tough to get that second bid until the bottom half of the league gets better. The the differential between the Harvard and Dartmouth is two disparate. You can schedule a strong non conference schedule, but half your conference games are against low ranked competition. That said this year and next year are probably the best in recent history to even consider 2 Bid Ivy.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3331

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
11-04-18 10:33 PM - Post#264215    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Here's my prediction: the NCAA selection committee will never give the Ivy League a second bid. Never.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-04-18 11:18 PM - Post#264219    
    In response to Silver Maple

  • Silver Maple Said:
Here's my prediction: the NCAA selection committee will never give the Ivy League a second bid. Never.



I will definitely take the other side of “never”. That’s an easy bet to make.

Some really smart people once thought the world was flat and subprime mortgages would never be a problem, never.

Edited by PennFan10 on 11-04-18 11:18 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 05:23 AM - Post#264221    
    In response to PennFan10

Some people apparently still think the world is flat.

And it's not that some people thought subprime mortgages would not be a problem---they thought that they never would be THEIR problem. And for some of them, that was correct...at least in terms of making money and never serving time

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 06:41 AM - Post#264226    
    In response to palestra38

S&P and Moody’s rated many of the subprime mortgages as investment grade which means they thought less than 5-6% defaults could happen in a worst case scenario. Defaults were 20-40%. Thousand of investors bought those securities after careful analysis and invested in them as the “safe” part of their portfolio.

And only Trump still tho is the world is flat. Never is a long time.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19773

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 07:43 AM - Post#264227    
    In response to PennFan10

Right, but what happened to S&P and Moody's? Nothing. And they kept all their fees. That was the Ponzi scheme aspect of the subprime crisis.

But just about everyone made out just fine except homeowners who didn't take out cash and employees of the banks which failed.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11855

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings
11-05-18 08:00 AM - Post#264229    
    In response to palestra38

And they knew full well they were giving their bracha to a pile of garbage.

By the way, we are starting to see the same thing all over again today.

  • palestra38 Said:
Right, but what happened to S&P and Moody's? Nothing. And they kept all their fees. That was the Ponzi scheme aspect of the subprime crisis.





 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1935

Reg: 02-15-15
11-05-18 10:45 AM - Post#264249    
    In response to penn nation

Many pension funds, private banks, and endowments lost millions on securities they thought were safe. Point is, many smart people thought that was a “never”

2 bid Ivy is a lot more realistic than another 2008 debacle

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 555

Age: 46
Reg: 05-19-16
11-05-18 05:25 PM - Post#264333    
    In response to PennFan10

Conspiracy Theory

If Yale truly has a NBA prospect in Oni, and Yale ends the year with the best record among the Ivies, but loses in the finals of the Ivy Tourney we might just get a 2Bid Ivy. The invisible hand might move them into a 2nd bid.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11855

Reg: 12-02-04
11-05-18 05:43 PM - Post#264335    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

  • GoBigGreenBasketball Said:
The invisible hand might move them into a 2nd bid.



That's Mike, not Adam, Smith.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5285

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-05-18 06:23 PM - Post#264337    
    In response to penn nation

Penn is +4.5 at George Mason tomorrow. If we take the relatively stable GMU ranking of high 110s across KenPom and Bart Torvik’s site as the reference point, that means Vegas would have Penn in the 130-135 range - or sorta right in between where Bart and KenPom had Penn.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 814

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
11-05-18 08:06 PM - Post#264341    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Yale should be better for sure but the likelihood of getting a bid regardless of IL Tournament sounds like what Alan Greenspan once called "irrational exuberance". With Towns and Aikens missing at least a minimum of some non-league games, I would like to see the odds that Vegas would currently give of having the IL sending two teams to the Big Dance. Vegas probably thinks that there is a far better chance for one IL team with a 16 seed for the second year in a row.

Hopefully, we will be pleasantly surprised.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5285

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-05-18 09:32 PM - Post#264354    
    In response to bradley

First step here would be to understand the new NCAA metric that’s replacing the RPI and then the bigger issue of whether or not they plan to move away from Top 50 Ws (not record in those games, but just pure wins) being such an influential factor. The move away from the RPI, the home/road adj tiers AND a move to “record against tier I” versus just raw tier I wins would certainly create a much more friendly climate for mid-major selection.

I’m a skeptic until we see this play out a bit.

 
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