bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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11-03-18 05:47 PM - Post#264148
In response to mrjames
I remember last year that there was considerable optimism prior to the start of the season. Injuries and poor performance sobered expectations during non-conference play. Will this year be different -- time will tell.
Other than Harvard, most of the IL teams have question marks. Will the Ivies receive two bids -- possible but very questionable.
Let's hope that this year is a turn around year but .....
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
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11-03-18 11:25 PM - Post#264164
In response to bradley
Does anyone seriously consider this year to be a possibility? Next year, however...
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-03-18 11:48 PM - Post#264167
In response to Quakers03
I think we will take a slight step back this year, but by the end of next season this has the potential to be one of the better squads we've seen in West Philly in some time.
Edited by penn nation on 11-03-18 11:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-04-18 12:02 AM - Post#264168
In response to Quakers03
Hard to see Penn as an at large, if that is what you mean. Seems like the way to 2 bids this year is for Harvard to be crazy good and then go belly up in the Ivy tourney. Seems like they could have that type of upside if everything breaks right. But it would involve everyone being healthy and Kirkwood stepping right in. And even then, Amaker would have to focus more on OOC than he has historically.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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11-04-18 09:04 AM - Post#264174
In response to SomeGuy
I agree with your scenario that it is highly unlikely for the Ivies to receive two bids unless a very good IL team, Harvard, loses in IvyMadness to a team that would not have received a bid unless the tournament. Problem with that scenario is that a very good IL team, i.e. potentially Harvard, will have to do very well in non-league play plus the other IL teams as a group will have to perform well in non-conference play and finally the very good IL team loses in IvyMadnes -- a lot of buts.
Tigers were pretty good two years ago but they blew the opportunity based on non-conference results plus Ivies were not very strong as a group.
Optimism understandably reigns at the beginning of the Fall campaign.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-04-18 10:03 AM - Post#264179
In response to bradley
Harvard may go 0-12 in the non conf games without Towns and Aiken (followed by 14-12 with them), so I wouldn’t bet too heavily on the 6 standard deviation 2 bid tail narrative.
Edited by PennFan10 on 11-04-18 10:04 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-04-18 09:41 PM - Post#264209
In response to PennFan10
We are not getting a second bid this season, no matter what.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-04-18 10:40 PM - Post#264211
In response to palestra38
It will be tough to get that second bid until the bottom half of the league gets better. The the differential between the Harvard and Dartmouth is two disparate. You can schedule a strong non conference schedule, but half your conference games are against low ranked competition. That said this year and next year are probably the best in recent history to even consider 2 Bid Ivy.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-04-18 11:33 PM - Post#264215
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Here's my prediction: the NCAA selection committee will never give the Ivy League a second bid. Never.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-05-18 12:18 AM - Post#264219
In response to Silver Maple
Here's my prediction: the NCAA selection committee will never give the Ivy League a second bid. Never.
I will definitely take the other side of “neverâ€. That’s an easy bet to make.
Some really smart people once thought the world was flat and subprime mortgages would never be a problem, never.
Edited by PennFan10 on 11-05-18 12:18 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-05-18 06:23 AM - Post#264221
In response to PennFan10
Some people apparently still think the world is flat.
And it's not that some people thought subprime mortgages would not be a problem---they thought that they never would be THEIR problem. And for some of them, that was correct...at least in terms of making money and never serving time
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-05-18 07:41 AM - Post#264226
In response to palestra38
S&P and Moody’s rated many of the subprime mortgages as investment grade which means they thought less than 5-6% defaults could happen in a worst case scenario. Defaults were 20-40%. Thousand of investors bought those securities after careful analysis and invested in them as the “safe†part of their portfolio.
And only Trump still tho is the world is flat. Never is a long time.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-05-18 08:43 AM - Post#264227
In response to PennFan10
Right, but what happened to S&P and Moody's? Nothing. And they kept all their fees. That was the Ponzi scheme aspect of the subprime crisis.
But just about everyone made out just fine except homeowners who didn't take out cash and employees of the banks which failed.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Ivy League preseason power rankings 11-05-18 09:00 AM - Post#264229
In response to palestra38
And they knew full well they were giving their bracha to a pile of garbage.
By the way, we are starting to see the same thing all over again today.
Right, but what happened to S&P and Moody's? Nothing. And they kept all their fees. That was the Ponzi scheme aspect of the subprime crisis.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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11-05-18 11:45 AM - Post#264249
In response to penn nation
Many pension funds, private banks, and endowments lost millions on securities they thought were safe. Point is, many smart people thought that was a “neverâ€
2 bid Ivy is a lot more realistic than another 2008 debacle
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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11-05-18 06:25 PM - Post#264333
In response to PennFan10
Conspiracy Theory
If Yale truly has a NBA prospect in Oni, and Yale ends the year with the best record among the Ivies, but loses in the finals of the Ivy Tourney we might just get a 2Bid Ivy. The invisible hand might move them into a 2nd bid.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21086
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-05-18 06:43 PM - Post#264335
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
- GoBigGreenBasketball Said:
The invisible hand might move them into a 2nd bid.
That's Mike, not Adam, Smith.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-05-18 07:23 PM - Post#264337
In response to penn nation
Penn is +4.5 at George Mason tomorrow. If we take the relatively stable GMU ranking of high 110s across KenPom and Bart Torvik’s site as the reference point, that means Vegas would have Penn in the 130-135 range - or sorta right in between where Bart and KenPom had Penn.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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11-05-18 09:06 PM - Post#264341
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Yale should be better for sure but the likelihood of getting a bid regardless of IL Tournament sounds like what Alan Greenspan once called "irrational exuberance". With Towns and Aikens missing at least a minimum of some non-league games, I would like to see the odds that Vegas would currently give of having the IL sending two teams to the Big Dance. Vegas probably thinks that there is a far better chance for one IL team with a 16 seed for the second year in a row.
Hopefully, we will be pleasantly surprised.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-05-18 10:32 PM - Post#264354
In response to bradley
First step here would be to understand the new NCAA metric that’s replacing the RPI and then the bigger issue of whether or not they plan to move away from Top 50 Ws (not record in those games, but just pure wins) being such an influential factor. The move away from the RPI, the home/road adj tiers AND a move to “record against tier I†versus just raw tier I wins would certainly create a much more friendly climate for mid-major selection.
I’m a skeptic until we see this play out a bit.
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