Bruno
PhD Student
Posts: 1419
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 11:48 AM - Post#262703
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I don't. I admit I don't know as much about the full recruiting class but it's hard to imagine any Ivy freshman more talented than this kid looks. Then again as the OB says, you never know what you really have until you see them against bigger and faster competition.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-15-15
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10-16-18 11:52 AM - Post#262706
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Jordan Bruner was widely considered the favorite. I remember last year many thought Sebastian Much was the leading candidate. I don’t think Dez Cambridge was on many people’s radar a year ago. Miye Oni came from relative obscurity. The point is there is a lot of talent coming into our league and while Lewellyn or Kirkwood are the hyped favorites, I’ll take the field against those two.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 11:54 AM - Post#262707
In response to AntiUngvar
Llewelyn’s Dad? I don’t recall either of his teams beating UCLA. Or have I lost the thread again?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 12:04 PM - Post#262709
In response to SomeGuy
Who cares who wins ROY? Question is whether Princeton can overcome the serious deficiencies that were revealed last year when Cook, Weisz, Miller, Caruso and Brase all were graduated, leaving the Tigers with no quality experienced frontcourt players. You don't go from 23-7 to 13-16, graduate another 4 year starter in Bell and expect to suddenly be at the top because of one freshman. And if they don't, they lose Cannady and Stephens after this year. I think the issue is whether they or Brown finishes 4th---right now, I like Brown for that spot.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-16-18 12:04 PM - Post#262710
In response to PennFan10
Always reasonable to take the field (though I note that there were some who picked Oni, who like Much and Llewelyn had a likelier path to start that Bruner did).
Llewelyn is the pick here, though, if you have to pick one. He is arguably more highly touted than anyone the league has gotten, and he has a clear path to a starting role if he is ready. Much/Desrosiers show why this isn’t an exact science though — they were highly regarded and had every opportunity to step in immediately, but the mix suffered mightily without Cook and Weisz. Llewelyn’s fit to the spot needed seems more clear, but who knows — maybe he needs to wait for Cannady to graduate to start.
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-16-18 12:32 PM - Post#262719
In response to SomeGuy
Might as well throw Taurus Samuels out there as my pick for Ivy ROY, because ROY is, indeed, about talent plus opportunity. Mike Wang would be another strong choice (big senior year answered a lot of questions).
That being said, it's important to note that Noah and Jaelin are a different caliber of recruit - one that had been more intensely scrutinized and from a group that has a very high likelihood to hit. This wasn't a case of a projectable big man who got early high ratings based on size alone, or a formerly highly-regarded player that had a terrible spring/summer and watched high major offers evaporate. These are two recruits that had active, high-major offers and who stunned folks by picking Harvard and Princeton.
Jaelin is the most highly regarded recruit to pick the Ivy League in my time covering the league, and that's including the 2016 Harvard class. He's not going to help the fact that Princeton's problems last year were more defensive than offensive, though, but he's an absurd talent.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
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Loc: Our Nation's Capital
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 02:02 PM - Post#262730
In response to AntiUngvar
His dad, who beat UCLA in the dance 20 plus years ago, may have been the true stud!
Are you referring to Gabe Lewullis? Pretty sure he's not Jaelin Llewellyn's dad.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 02:02 PM - Post#262731
In response to palestra38
On Princeton vs. Brown and 4th place, I’ll take Princeton. They were clearly the fourth best team statistically, which suggests a little bad luck. The closest team of the other four was Columbia, and losing Meisner means they shouldn’t bridge the gap. With Llewelyn, Stephens and Cannady, plus some guys who could emerge, they seem most likely of the non playoff teams from last year to step up. I agree with you, though, that they need to prove it one the court — they were a long way from the top three during the Ivy season last year, and they lost an important player on a team that didn’t have enough last year to begin with.
On Brown, while they showed offensive flashes, they were literally four final possessions of 0-14 last year. It takes some guts to convert those, they aren’t going anywhere if they can’t play more complete games. They are clearly better than Dartmouth, and Cornell and Columbia each lost key bigs. Browns most likely path to 4th will be if this is another year where a losing record makes the tournament.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 02:08 PM - Post#262732
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
OUCH!
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 02:11 PM - Post#262734
In response to SomeGuy
I think what is particularly troubling about Princeton is that they won only 1 league game on the road, which means they needed that bad lighting and backdrop to win games (it's not as though they drew many fans last year--it was Penn fans and crickets in there for the Penn-Princeton game at Jadwin).
I just think Princeton is much further away than do you. Relying on a freshman has never been the key to winning in the Ivies.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 02:29 PM - Post#262739
In response to palestra38
Shouldn’t that same logic apply to Brown? They won one road game (in OT). Why is this a fatal flaw for Princeton but not for Brown?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 02:45 PM - Post#262740
In response to SomeGuy
Brown was a very young team and didn't lose a game on the road by more than 7. Lots of close losses---I expect more improvement.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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10-16-18 02:56 PM - Post#262741
In response to SomeGuy
Brown has everyone returning, which should mean a lot in a high tempo offense. I do like Princeton when Aririzugoh is on the floor. He's the first real big they've had in years. Gladson gives them depth - although Henderson may use them the other way around depending on the opponent. Stephens (former DOY) and Aririzugoh are a tough inside pair. Nevertheless, I saw Princeton's defense as its achilles heel last year with Cannady, Much and Desrosiers. That is where Bell will be missed. I bet Much and Desrosiers will be focusing on improving that part of their games.
Brown is still lightning in a bottle. When Cambridge gets hot - watch out!
Probably Princeton's spot unless it implodes as it did last year.
By the way, I think I saw that Harvard is 2nd or 3rd in the country in returning minutes (or was it scoring or possessions?). I think this stat is meaningful as Ivy players tend to not be as ready as freshmen, but the better ones really improve with seniority. Harvard is theoretically over 100% if a healthy Aiken is factored in on top of Juzang. Looking at pre-season photos, it looks like guys like Aiken and Towns are maturing physically.
Anyway, clearly the league pundits place Penn over Yale, whereas most national publications had it the other way around. If they are all correct, the deciding moment could be at Payne Whitney on March 16th at 3:00pm when the presumed 2nd and 3rd seeded teams face off. Will HCA decide things?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-16-18 02:58 PM - Post#262742
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
You know what they say about counting them chickens.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 03:00 PM - Post#262743
In response to palestra38
I will (perhaps unfairly) pick on the word “more†for a moment. Brown didn’t improve at all from two years ago to last year. They’ve been remarkably consistent, finishing between 265 and 280 in pomeroy each of the last four years and always winning 3-4 league games. They actually got considerably worse offensively, though they did improve enough on defense to make up for it (that said, they were still better on offense than defense, though now below average at both).
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 03:07 PM - Post#262745
In response to SomeGuy
You're right that they haven't won yet. But Cambridge in my opinion is the second best player in the league and he only was a freshman, and the other two underclassmen were pretty good as well. They are tougher and stronger than what I saw out of the Princeton guys coming back from last year (Bell was really tough--he will be missed despite being inconsistent as a shooter). They are headed to being a very different team than the great team of 2 years ago--I don't see them as serious threats this year.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-16-18 03:55 PM - Post#262752
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I’ll be eagerly watching the Harvard v Yale game on March 16.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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Re: MMM All-Ivy preview
10-16-18 04:49 PM - Post#262760
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Thanks for the needed correction. I'm sorry, but most Princeton athletes look alike to me. They did beat the Bruins in '96 with that fellow Gabe- no apparent relation to this present day player. Thanks again!
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
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10-16-18 04:55 PM - Post#262761
In response to PennFan10
Back in the 2016-2017 season, I believe after the loss at Princeton, I seem to remember Steve Donahue saying that his team was improving, but they were just not mentally strong enough to close out games against better teams. When they could get that last part in order, things would turn around. The results over the last part of that season and last year showed he was correct.
I don't know if that is something the players need to do for themselves, or if it is something that the staff needs to assist.
If the Bears can actually take this next step, they could be trouble during the season and a four team tournament.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-16-18 08:32 PM - Post#262764
In response to rbg
The thing with Brown is that they won more than their share of close games in conference. If they got down to the end, they were pretty good. The problem was getting there. Again, they were tied or down inside 6 seconds left in all 14 league games and managed to pull out 4 of them. That is actually kind of hard to do. The problem for Brown is a lack of stretches where they dominate play. At their best, they seem to just be keeping up, even against weak competition. That is a solvable problem, too, and could come with time, but I actually think it is a little more fundamental and harder to address than just learning how to close out games. In the league, they literally never had a late lead to close out, in 14 games.
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