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Username Post: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom        (Topic#21974)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-23-18 04:28 PM - Post#269981    
    In response to palestra38

Here's one way to look at resumes thus far. What you'll see below is every game that the Ivies have played this season, organized by team, including location, whether the Ivy won or lost and the Game Score for that game if the Ivy team had won by 1. This gives you a sense of the quality of the game (regardless of margin) and thus the resumes of Ivy teams.

The full table is below. Some summary stats could be interesting as well - these include the Average GS played, Average GS of Wins, Average GS of Losses, Wins above 68, Wins above 83:

Avg GSAdj Avg GSAdj of Wins Avg GSAdj of Losses Wins > 68 Wins > 83
Brown 44 28 71 0 0
Columbia 44 22 50 0 0
Cornell 54 35 65 0 0
Dartmouth 43 26 59 0 0
Harvard 65 58 71 2 1
Penn 52 46 83 2 0
Princeton 48 28 68 0 0
Yale 53 39 87 1 1

The key takeaways here are that there are sort of four groups of schedule toughness: Harvard; Cornell, Yale and Penn; Princeton; Columbia, Brown, Dartmouth. Harvard's schedule has been historically tough (until yesterday's game, the worst opponent it had played was roughly equivalent to playing a 180s team at a neutral site).

It should follow that Harvard's average game score of wins (58) is far and away better than any other team (Penn's is very strong at 46). From a loss perspective, Columbia's average GS of losses is easily the worst in the league (50), while Yale and Penn have done the best job of losing to nothing but the best (Penn's GS losses were 88 and 77, while Yale's were 99, 85 and 78). Why this is important is that in a "three-team" race for the Ivy title, Harvard is the team of the three that has demonstrated the most ability to drop the types of normal course games that it will see during the league campaign.

Full list of games and game scores below:

Butler Brown A L 94
Rhode Island Brown A L 81
NJIT Brown A L 63
Marist Brown A W 62
LIU Brooklyn Brown A L 47
Stony Brook Brown H W 38
Navy Brown A W 30
UMass Lowell Brown H W 23
Army Brown H W 18
Sacred Heart Brown H W 17
Bryant Brown H W 7
Rutgers Columbia A L 87
Boston College Columbia A L 80
Fordham Columbia A L 63
Marist Columbia A L 61
Colgate Columbia H L 44
FIU Columbia N L 39
Iona Columbia N W 37
Delaware Columbia H L 23
Bryant Columbia H W 7
Youngstown St. Columbia N L 2
Syracuse Cornell A L 90
Connecticut Cornell A L 8 6
Toledo Cornell A L 86
SMU Cornell A L 84
NJIT Cornell A W 62
Colgate Cornell H L 43
Niagara Cornell A L 41
Lafayette Cornell A W 31
Binghamton Cornell A W 28
Delaware Cornell H L 24
Longwood Cornell H W 19
San Francisco Dartmouth A L 9 4
Buffalo Dartmouth A L 93
Davidson Dartmouth A L 78
Marist Dartmouth N L 48
Loyola MD Dartmouth A W 39
Albany Dartmouth A W 38
Boston University Dartmouth H W 31
Albany Dartmouth N W 24
Quinnipiac Dartmouth H L 22
Bryant Dartmouth A L 18
Sacred Heart Dartmouth H W 17
Maine Dartmouth H W 8
San Francisco Harvard A L 95
Saint Mary's Harvard A W 91
Rhode Island Harvard A L 80
Vermont Harvard A L 79
Massachusetts Harvard A W 76
Northeastern Harvard H L 54
Holy Cross Harvard H W 46
Siena Harvard A L 45
George Washington Harvard H W 18
Kansas St. Penn N L 88
Miami FL Penn H W 79
Villanova Penn H W 79
Oregon St. Penn N L 77
George Mason Penn A W 62
New Mexico Penn A W 59
La Salle Penn A W 47
Northern Iowa Penn N W 44
Rice Penn H W 16
Lafayette Penn H W 13
Delaware St. Penn A W 11
Duke Princeton A L 99
St. John's Princeton A L 89
Lehigh Princeton A L 73
Saint Joseph's Princeton H L 55
Iona Princeton N W 36
Monmouth Princeton A W 33
Lafayette Princeton A W 3 0
Fairleigh Dickinson Princeton H L 2 6
Maine Princeton A W 22
George Washington Princeton H W 18
Duke Yale A L 99
Miami FL Yale N W 87
Memphis Yale A L 85
Vermont Yale A L 78
California Yale N W 47
Lehigh Yale H W 46
Monmouth Yale A W 33
Iona Yale H W 25
Bryant Yale A W 17
Albany Yale H W 16




 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-23-18 06:16 PM - Post#269987    
    In response to mrjames

Excluding the statistics and watching a fair number of non-conference games, my gut reaction is if Aiken and Towns return, Harvard would have the greatest chance to win the regular season crown. If only one of them returns, it may simply be a "crap shoot" among the Big 3. My non-statistical gut gives Yale the slight edge although Penn is right there with the Bulldogs. If Aiken or Towns does not return, Crimson are trailing behind Yale and Penn but as we have learned, injuries are always a wild card for every team.

As to the 4th spot, Brown seems to have the best opportunity. It may well be an advantage to finish #1 in the regular season this year as IvyMadness will favor #1 seed especially if it is the Bulldogs.

Donahue's coaching against Jones' coaching would be one helluva of a battle.

Time will tell.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-27-18 12:34 PM - Post#270185    
    In response to bradley

A lot of how the league stacks up depends on what you think matters.

By true game score (that includes margin), the top three are really bunched:

Penn 70
Yale 66
Harv 66

Brown stands alone in the 4th spot (54), Dart stands alone in the fifth spot (46) and then the bottom three are relatively bunched:

Prin 38
Colu 36
Corn 34

I'd argue that game score is the best descriptor of how competitive a team has been (and thus a pretty good predictor moving forward).

That being said, you play to win the games, so from a resume view, there's a pretty different story:

You can judge the quality of a win by taking the Adj GS (that Game Score that is completely stripped of margin - shown above) and either subtracting 100 in a loss or crediting the Adj GS in a win. So for instance, beating an Adj GS "75" team gives you 75 points if you win or -25 points if you lose. From that perspective, Penn is crushing it:

Penn 375 pts
Yale 233
Harv 84
Brwn 80
Prin -19
Dart -90
Corn -106
Colu -335

By dividing those numbers above by 100 you can get a metric for "wins against your own schedule relative to what a national average team would have done."

As you can see, Penn, which was handily defeated in its two losses, and Yale separate themselves from Harvard, which actually has a resume very similar to Brown's. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Princeton and Cornell's resumes look a lot more impressive, while Dartmouth and Columbia's are less so.

While resume isn't as great a predictor as margin-adjusted metrics are, what is important to note is that Penn's resume is outstanding. If it splits with Toledo/Temple and takes care of Monmouth/St. Joe's, it will actually have a resume worthy of an at-large bid heading into Ivy play, as crazy as that sounds. And that's a slate of 14 games where it could have as many as three tier II games and a tier I game and no fewer than two tier II games.

Hopefully that helps as some context here.

 
Bryan 
Junior
Posts: 231

Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
12-28-18 10:18 AM - Post#270238    
    In response to palestra38

Ken Pomeroy recently wrote an article with his current estimates of the leading teams for each conference title for The Athletic. The link was also available through his Twitter feed. He has Yale, Penn and Harvard relatively even at 42, 39 and 38% respectively. (Those sum to more than 100% reflecting a chance of a tie for the regular season title). He also notes "Harvard is still awaiting the return of Seth Towns and Bryce Aiken from injuries, which isn’t accounted for in these numbers." The link is:

https://theathletic.com/734048/2018/12/26/ken pom-t...

As of this morning Pomeroy has those 3 rated 97, 98 and 99 nationally. I'd be surprised if the Ivy has had 3 teams in the Top 100 anytime since the 1960's.


 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
12-28-18 12:00 PM - Post#270250    
    In response to Bryan

Aiken and Towns status are wild cards. Predicting the future based on y-t-d results is questionable if one or two of them return. Same applies to Princeton chances based on the appearance of Llewellyn, Return of Alarie from injury completely altered the Princeton women's trend line.

If Aiken and Towns return relatively healthy, past performance of Harvard is not a leading indicator.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
12-28-18 12:10 PM - Post#270251    
    In response to bradley

I think the Aiken/Towns returns are wishful thinking at this point. At least Towns has been reported as on the court during pregame by an independent source so I haven't completely written that off. But Aiken hasn't played basketball at all in over a year and hasn't faced an IL opponent since his freshmen year. His coach is recently on record as saying it's up to him when he returns. This is all very strange and it wouldn't surprise me if we never see Bryce Aiken in a Harvard jersey again. I am less confident on Towns but I don't see the logic in a kid like Towns wasting a year of eligibility on half a season (his playing status also "up to him")

 
westcoast 
Senior
Posts: 302

Reg: 03-08-16
12-29-18 11:47 PM - Post#270436    
    In response to PennFan10

The wins by Brown and Princeton on Saturday have pushed the Ivy League ahead of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Ivy League is now #12 - next up is the Mountain West.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21085

Reg: 12-02-04
12-30-18 12:04 AM - Post#270437    
    In response to westcoast

Same with Bart Torvik's site. IL narrowly behind the MW and A10. Definitely conceivable it ends up #10 by the end of OOC play.

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
12-30-18 09:47 AM - Post#270449    
    In response to penn nation

Penn’s big loss has them out of the KenPom top 100 proving the injury factor works both ways; but don’t look now... Brown is up to 134.

This year’s OOC performance for the Ivies is the best I can remember in a LONG time.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-30-18 02:24 PM - Post#270472    
    In response to Streamers

A few different sets of thoughts here:

1) A few things to clear up from PF10's post. First, Bryce did play in Ivy play last year. He saw the floor in a brief stint at Dartmouth before deciding to wait a few more weeks. He played 33 mins over two games on Brown/Yale weekend, including 18 points in 20 mins (38% usage) against Brown. It was the next weekend at Columbia where he retweaked it and decided to shut it down for the year.

Second, both Bryce and Seth have been on the floor before/after games - Aiken actually more than Towns, getting up a fair deal of shots.

Third, all of this comes back to Amaker's policies. Agreeing or disagreeing is totally up to you, but he's dogged in his insistence on the separation between expectations and standards. For Tommy, expectations are external, and he avoids addressing them. Whether it be polls or other accolades (or expectations for injured players), he's rarely going to answer a question that would indicate that those matter. The point is to keep the focus on what the people that can play have to do and not let the external forces set the expectation of excuses on the program. It's the culture he sets - you can like it or not, but it's consistent.

As for Ivy performance, here are some fun ones... starting with 2018 and 2019 Torvik ratings mashed together into one set of standings:

1) Harvard 2019 .7358
2) Penn 2019 .7081
3) Yale 2019 .6989
4) Penn 2018 .6643
5) Brown 2019 .6483
6) Harvard 2018 .5859
7) Princeton 2018 .4681
8) Princeton 2019 .4539
9) Dartmouth 2019 .4370
10) Yale 2018 .4244

Top three are all 2019, four of the top five and six of the top nine. Crazy improvement YOY especially with the injuries.

Second, if you think this is the best Ivy performance in the non-conference, you're certainly right for this decade (and probably right all the way back to the start of the AI era)...

2019 53 (Avg. Game Score)
2014 51
2016 51
2015 49
2011 47
2012 47
2017 45
2018 44
2013 42
2010 40

Third, this year has now yielded seven of the Top 40 non-conference wins in Adjusted Game Score (i.e. margin is excluded, so just the raw value of the win itself):

8) Princeton @ ASU (91)
11) Harvard @ St. Mary's (91)
21) Yale @ Miami (86)
29) Brown @ San Diego St. (81)
31) Penn vs. Villanova (79)
39) Penn vs. Miami (77)
40) Harvard @ UMass (76)

We only had six total the past three seasons.

Finally, if we look at best average game score (does include margin) months this year, there have been four strong ones by four different teams:

Nov Yale 76
Dec Penn 74
Nov Harv 74
Dec Brwn 72

Only Princeton's Dec average of 52 is keeping those four teams from having the top 8 months, as the Tigers' Dec (52) is barely ahead of Brown's Nov (50).


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
12-30-18 04:33 PM - Post#270483    
    In response to mrjames

And the fearful whisper passing among the Ivies is "Brown is playing defense." That will certainly make it more likely that the fifth place team will be pretty good.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-30-18 06:45 PM - Post#270502    
    In response to mrjames

At the end of the day, 1st and the 4th seeds may simply come down to one shot or one turnover etc. The seeds may also very well be decided by injuries or non-injuries.

Yale finally seems to be dodging the bullet regarding injuries after a string of them over the past two years. I would not be surprised if Jones has the Bulldogs ready to be very tough and challenging to beat. A huge plus for Yale is that they have two guys who can create and get off good shots at the end of a game -- Oni and Copeland. Some IL teams do not have a player who can create on his own at game's end.

Makai Mason is playing very well at 8-4 Baylor and has the most minutes per game than any other Baylor player. IL results may have been different if he had been on the floor for four years at Yale as he could create and make critical shots on his own when needed.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-31-18 09:47 AM - Post#270547    
    In response to bradley

Also humorous...

The top five teams in the Ivy are 4-7 in Tier I games, but 1-6 in Tier II games. It's both odd that they've had so many more Tier I opportunities and that the record in Tier I games is so much stronger.

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-31-18 01:34 PM - Post#270561    
    In response to mrjames

Which means we know what the handy excuse will be if an Ivy or 3 are actually being considered as at-large bubble candidates come selection time.


 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-31-18 01:45 PM - Post#270566    
    In response to Chip Bayers

MJ mentioned this earlier but if Penn were to win out in the non conference (Monmouth, Temple, St Joes) and go something like 12-2/13-1 in conference play while losing in the ILT, it would be an interesting profile for the at large committee. Especially if Nova ends up a conference Champ and Miami finishes in top 3rd of their conference. And if George Mason gets hot and wins the A10 by some miracle.....

Edited by PennFan10 on 12-31-18 01:45 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 805

Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-31-18 02:44 PM - Post#270590    
    In response to PennFan10

2-bid ivy???? LOL
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Naismith 
Sophomore
Posts: 148

Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
12-31-18 03:07 PM - Post#270599    
    In response to PennFan10

2nd bid has been long-time Ivy League illusion.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
12-31-18 03:12 PM - Post#270604    
    In response to Naismith

Just make sure you guys show up here when it happens one day. Same type of poster who said IL would never be a top 10 conference I am pretty sure.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
12-31-18 04:36 PM - Post#270678    
    In response to PennFan10

I agree that the IL may earn 2 bids in the not too distant future. The league's performance this year has been a good sign. In fairness, a number of individuals have been a tad bit overly optimistic as to how fast that the 2nd bid was going to take place. There was even some talk albeit from a few that an IL team could be a two bid league or have a top 25 team this year - delirious? Reality sometimes gets blurred with optimism or pessimism.

My point has always been that the introduction of IvyMadness should have been timed to when the league is really positioned to be a two bid league.

The ultimate test as to who is right or wrong is reality. So far, no two bids and still a pretty good way to go. I would not be surprised if IL women get two bids on a more consistent basis but time will tell.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
12-31-18 06:31 PM - Post#270690    
    In response to bradley

I think we will have 1 or 2 IL teams with profiles for a 2nd bid in the next year or two. I don't think we will get the bid, but having a resume that is competitive for a bid (quantitatively) is the first step.

 
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