mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
12-31-18 07:47 PM - Post#270697
In response to PennFan10
Correct. We’ve already had a team that has an at-large resume objectively (Wins Against Bubble - Harvard 2010-11). That is no guarantee of selection, especially if you’re a mid, but as PF10 says - the first benchmark should be having teams that are objectively qualified based on resume. That’s even leaving aside teams being qualified based on rankings (RPI, now NET, KenPom or Bart, which we have had multiple at-large caliber ranked teams this decade).
Now, we can debate what *actually* happens in the room - and I agree with the skeptics, especially based on the decisions made later this decade (after an okay view towards mids in spots earlier this decade). But my KPI that I’m tracking is objective measures of resume, and I do think we’ll have another (possibly better situated) positive WAB team that isn’t our auto bid in the very near future.
|
westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
|
12-31-18 08:49 PM - Post#270704
In response to mrjames
Penn's loss to Monmouth moves the league's overall ranking back to #13 on Kenpom. Several opportunities on Wednesday for the Ivy League to improve its standing, including Dartmouth at #118 Vermont, Cornell at #159 Wake Forest, and Harvard at #7 North Carolina.
|
bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
|
01-02-19 11:35 PM - Post#270935
In response to westcoast
All six favorites won this evening with only Columbia not covering the spread but just by 1 pt. Looking at some of tonight's games, Dartmouth played tough and was only down by 4 pts with 11 minutes to go which was a bit of a surprise. Dartmouth and Brown continue to exceed preseason projections.
As the IL season is fast approaching, it does not appear that any team will be dominant although you never know. It seems like Yale is the most complete team and to date no injuries -- they have good balance as to how the team is comprised as to size and complimentary skills plus Jones can coach.
Unless some team goes 16-0, IL will be probably be a one bid league and you only need to be in the top 4 as we know for Ivy Madness. Competition may exist for 4th spot at year's end in all likelihood.
Which team steps up - we will begin to see early returns starting Saturday. Hopefully, the best team goes to the Big Dance but no guarantees as we are blessed to have Ivy Madness decide. We do know Yale has homecourt at the end of the season.
|
AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
|
01-03-19 02:30 AM - Post#270949
In response to bradley
Brad, Thanks for your usual diligence and attention to details- there were, in fact, six games played last night involving Ivy schools, 3 of which resulted Ivy victories, including Columbia's first true road victory.
|
westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
|
01-03-19 02:58 AM - Post#270950
In response to bradley
All six favorites won this evening with only Columbia not covering the spread but just by 1 pt.
Yeah, all six Ivy games tonight basically went as predicted, and the League stays at #13, just behind the MVC. I don't see many more chances for the league to improve its standing - just Penn playing Temple and St. Joe's. So most likely, the Ivy will finish around #12-14 among all D-1 conferences, which I believe is as good a finish as any season this century.
|
SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4894
Reg: 02-04-06
|
01-03-19 02:43 PM - Post#270998
In response to westcoast
And by not covering the spread, Columbia made the SportsCenter highlights (including the Top Ten) on Stefanini's buzzer-beater.
|
Bruno
PhD Student
Posts: 1414
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
|
01-08-19 09:36 AM - Post#271752
In response to SRP
Back up to 12th
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh) |
|
Bruno
PhD Student
Posts: 1414
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
|
01-08-19 09:38 AM - Post#271753
In response to SRP
Back up to 12th
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh) |
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
01-08-19 01:16 PM - Post#271770
In response to Bruno
KenPom Team watch:
Yale 89
Harvard 100
Penn 125
Brown 136
Princeton 176
Dartmouth 222
Columbia 234
Cornell 258
At this point where most of the OOC games are done, the league average is 150. I wonder when was the last time it was that good? Penn still has Temple at 71 and St. Joes at 146 and nobody else has anyone left in the top 200; after that the teams all beat up on each other so I expect the league has peaked.
|
HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
|
01-10-19 03:57 PM - Post#271990
In response to Streamers
No one can doubt that the Ivy League regular season looks to be a scrum between at least 5 teams. Certainly, Yale, Princeton and Brown are on the upswing and we can anticipate that Penn will be as well once healthy. Harvard is competitive, but could take a major step forward if either Bryce Aiken or Seth Towns return and can contribute.
This year, no Ivy squad is currently ranked below 243 in KenPom, meaning that despite all of the focus on the big dogs, Dartmouth, Columbia and Cornell might have a say in who goes to the Tournament.
For instance:
- Columbia has put together a strong 4 game stretch, including close losses at BC, Rutgers and Northwestern. Mike Smith's offense could threaten to win any game, but Columbia sure is playing well without him;
- Cornell's Matt Morgan can, on any given night, win a game all by himself. He's averaging 23.6ppg while shooting 45.5% from 3. On six occasions, Morgan has hit at least 5 trey's in a game. In those 6 games, he has shot almost 60% on 3's averaging 29ppg. If Morgan goes off like he did last night (38pts on 9-14 3's), Cornell can beat anyone.
- Dartmouth is winning games, especially at home where the Big Green are 7-1. Knight is emerging inside and Barry, Sistare and Foye are combinging to average more than 7 3's per game on 50%+ shooting.
- Just in case anyone still considers Brown as an outsider, this 11-4 squad is #130KP and has won its last 5 games. Desmond Cambridge, like Cornell's Morgan, can win a game all by himself (e.g., 31pts on 7-13 3's and 25pts on 7-11 3's in recent games)
Y, P, P and H may have high expectations, but I wouldn't take any game for granted.
|
bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
|
01-11-19 09:04 AM - Post#272056
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Completely agree. It is not out of the realm of possibility at all that all IL teams could be 1-1 after playing head to head.
It should be a grind this year to win the IL regular season and whoever can close out games and avoid injuries may get the golden ring although the golden ring is only worth the first seed at Yale for IvyMadness.
|
JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
|
01-11-19 12:13 PM - Post#272092
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Only the most casual of observers will take an Ivy game for granted. Morgan will become the most prolific scorer in Cornell history, surpassing Ryan Wittman, in his next game. He will graduate as the second leading scorer in Ivy history. He gives the Big Red a puncher's chance in every game. Brown will sneak up on no one. The back-to-backs in Providence and New Haven are dreadful to contemplate.
|
bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
|
01-11-19 02:56 PM - Post#272131
In response to JadwinGeorge
According to ESPN, Harvard has a 52.5% chance to win while Penn is a heavy favorite at 76.5%.
It is always interesting to match up results vs. predictions over time.
|
Vonsid
Sophomore
Posts: 143
Reg: 03-12-16
|
01-11-19 09:38 PM - Post#272146
In response to bradley
I'll leave this here...
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...
|
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
|
01-11-19 11:34 PM - Post#272148
In response to Vonsid
Princeton. I can see it.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
|
westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
|
01-12-19 12:12 AM - Post#272153
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
I'm sure ESPN is just picking the team currently in first place. Although it wouldn't surprise me to any of these 5 teams win the league - Harvard, Yale, Penn, Brown, Princeton.
|
Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
01-12-19 09:11 AM - Post#272163
In response to westcoast
Lunardi has said as much about putting in the current leader in past years. Brown is defintely better than we thought coming in, creating a 5’s a crowd situation for the Tournament. Ask me about Princeton after today. They need to prove some things before I take them seriously.
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3044
Reg: 10-20-14
|
01-12-19 12:04 PM - Post#272176
In response to Streamers
That's a shame. I would hope that the ESPN bracketologist would put just a little bit of effort into the mid-majors conference.
While they are not my team, it's hard not to see how Yale is not put in place as the Ivy representative at this time. A few weeks ago, after the wins against Miami, UNM and Villanova, it would have been understandable to choose Penn, but things are a bit different as of a few days ago.
Yale is 10-3 with a win at Miami and a overtime loss at Memphis. They are also the top team in KenPom at #90 and are at #26 in the most recent College Insider Mid-Major poll. And, maybe most important, they get the Ivy Tournament on their home court.
I totally agree with those who think the regular season looks to be a 5 team race, and the other 3 teams are legitimate spoilers with at least one of those making a run to beak into the top half. However, being asked to look into the future to pick the winner of the Ivy Tournament should provide a different result.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
01-12-19 01:18 PM - Post#272183
In response to rbg
Lunardi has specific rules about how he fills the auto bids - always the team with the best record and in the event of a tie, he takes the one with the best RPI (now NET) of the tied teams.
I’d agree that at the moment, if you were being predictive, you’d slot Yale in (probably as a 12 or 13), but given Lunardi’s rules, January is usually a wonky month for the league in his bracket.
|
SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4894
Reg: 02-04-06
|
01-12-19 06:11 PM - Post#272328
In response to mrjames
Penn posters before and during this season tended to be pretty dismissive of Princeton's chances. Looking a lot better now, but Yale is the favorite.
|