mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-19 12:52 PM - Post#275348
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Expected wins this weekend:
Princeton: 0.55
Yale: 1.53
Harvard: 1.77
Cornell: 0.40
Penn: 0.66
Brown: 1.26
Dartmouth: 1.46
Columbia: 0.37
So, if you're thinking about good outcomes for teams, clearly any splits by Princeton, Cornell, Penn and Columbia would be a good outcome (sweep would be an amazing outcome). On the flip side, anything less than a sweep for Yale, Harvard, Brown and Dartmouth would be a bad weekend.
One sneaky thing I'm watching is Columbia's defensive TO rate forced, and particularly its steal rate (10.8% - 54th nationally). Someone's going to win the 3PT lottery again against Harvard (like Dartmouth did - and the Lions are capable of) and while Columbia's defense is bad, if it can force the Crimson into a 25% range on TOs with a significant portion that are live... it really won't matter what Harvard can do when it's not turning the ball over.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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02-07-19 01:13 PM - Post#275350
In response to mrjames
mrj: Columbia's lost 14 straight IL road games, so .37 of a win on Friday or Saturday evening may actually taste pretty good!
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2703
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom 02-07-19 01:19 PM - Post#275351
In response to mrjames
Interesting perspective.
Things that really stand out to me are likelihood of Dartmouth sweeping and chances that Princeton and Penn get swept. This is not my father's Ivy League!
Harvard should be sharp and aggressive vs Columbia on Friday night but Columbia - which is short on depth - should have a scheme in place.
With both Dartmouth and Columbia having a short bench, Saturday night could be unpredictable.
Penn might be fortunate to play Brown on a Friday if Max's back is an issue. On the other hand, Wang's health might countervail that thought.
As a Harvard fan, I guess I'll root for Dartmouth and Cornell to play multiple OT's on Friday, with Matt Morgan playing every minute and contesting from end to end and then pushing the bus all the way from Hanover to Cambridge!
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-07-19 01:29 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-19 03:01 PM - Post#275359
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Neither Mike Wang or Max have any injury limitations for this weekend (nor have they for a couple weeks). Quakers are physically at full strength.
This weekend seems to me to be when we find out what Brown is really made of. These are the teams/games they will need to win to push into the top half of the league for the first time in many years.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-07-19 05:14 PM - Post#275370
In response to PennFan10
Opening lines:
Princeton (+7) at Yale
Penn (-1.5) at Brown
Columbia (+10.5) at Harvard
Cornell (+3.5) at Dartmouth
That Penn-Brown line is, umm, interesting.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2703
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom 02-07-19 05:20 PM - Post#275371
In response to mrjames
Penn/Brown is a huge game. This year in particular it will be rough to start 1-4 and make the tournament. Worse for Brown if it cedes a tie breaker to Penn by losing to the Quakers at home.
After Penn travels to Yale on Saturday, Penn then finishes with 6 of 8 at home. Even at 1-5 Penn's chances would not be dead. At 2-4 they would be very much alive.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-07-19 05:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom 02-07-19 05:25 PM - Post#275374
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I have Penn at about 25% to make it even at 1-5.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom 02-07-19 05:35 PM - Post#275376
In response to mrjames
And DCambridge is just too good a player to have 5 consecutive bad IL games-think he'll show up BIG enough tomorrow night; and the favorites should prevail in the three other IL tilts; though the Crimson perhaps by not so much as the Lions will break in what is now typically excruciating, Columbian fashion.
Edited by AntiUngvar on 02-07-19 05:36 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-19 06:12 PM - Post#275393
In response to AntiUngvar
I am hoping Cambridge is too good to make it 6 consecutive bad games. We need that 5th one....
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-07-19 06:12 PM - Post#275394
In response to PennFan10
Penn -1.5 is a sucker bet.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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02-07-19 07:13 PM - Post#275404
In response to PennFan10
I am hoping Cambridge is too good to make it 6 consecutive bad games. We need that 5th one....
you don't need anything of the kind, Sam! To hear SomeGuy tell it, you can lose six straight more, and still get in at 5-9!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21340
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-07-19 10:12 PM - Post#275427
In response to AntiUngvar
I would hate to be against you.
Then I'd be Anti-Anti Ungvar and I'd have to join the AAU.
At least I could contribute to the scouting reports, though.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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02-07-19 10:25 PM - Post#275428
In response to penn nation
I love you, professor- at least more than most white people here do. Just try to offer some temperate remarks about the officials you may observe this weekend.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6418
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-07-19 10:55 PM - Post#275429
In response to AntiUngvar
You’re not reading my stuff very well — I think 8-6 likely will be required to get in this year.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2703
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-07-19 11:04 PM - Post#275430
In response to mrjames
Harvard/Columbia line went up to -12 but is now at -11.5
Harvard had a great run last weekend, not sure they can win every game decisively at home, even if they did it against Yale.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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02-08-19 12:44 AM - Post#275436
In response to SomeGuy
You’re not reading my stuff very well.
On rare occasion, even I can take pride in finding myself on the right track.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2703
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-08-19 08:43 AM - Post#275443
In response to AntiUngvar
Brown vs Penn line now even
Harvard -11 vs Columbia
Is this board moving markets?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-19 09:50 AM - Post#275454
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Shop wisely... appears you can get both Penn and Brown at +1 right now. Seems to be value on Brown and the under, regardless. 139 seems like a lot of points for two good defensive teams.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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02-08-19 10:53 AM - Post#275473
In response to mrjames
Upon further review, I'm thinking that game in Hanover tonight may be a really, really good one- with Syracuse Coach Boeheim's son being a difference maker for Big Red!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21340
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-08-19 02:59 PM - Post#275503
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Brown vs Penn line now even
Harvard -11 vs Columbia
Is this board moving markets?
I thought we were the market.
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