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Username Post: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom        (Topic#21974)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5554

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-07-19 11:52 AM - Post#275348    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Expected wins this weekend:

Princeton: 0.55
Yale: 1.53
Harvard: 1.77
Cornell: 0.40
Penn: 0.66
Brown: 1.26
Dartmouth: 1.46
Columbia: 0.37

So, if you're thinking about good outcomes for teams, clearly any splits by Princeton, Cornell, Penn and Columbia would be a good outcome (sweep would be an amazing outcome). On the flip side, anything less than a sweep for Yale, Harvard, Brown and Dartmouth would be a bad weekend.

One sneaky thing I'm watching is Columbia's defensive TO rate forced, and particularly its steal rate (10.8% - 54th nationally). Someone's going to win the 3PT lottery again against Harvard (like Dartmouth did - and the Lions are capable of) and while Columbia's defense is bad, if it can force the Crimson into a 25% range on TOs with a significant portion that are live... it really won't matter what Harvard can do when it's not turning the ball over.

 
AntiUngvar 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
02-07-19 12:13 PM - Post#275350    
    In response to mrjames

mrj: Columbia's lost 14 straight IL road games, so .37 of a win on Friday or Saturday evening may actually taste pretty good!


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1691

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
02-07-19 12:19 PM - Post#275351    
    In response to mrjames

Interesting perspective.

Things that really stand out to me are likelihood of Dartmouth sweeping and chances that Princeton and Penn get swept. This is not my father's Ivy League!

Harvard should be sharp and aggressive vs Columbia on Friday night but Columbia - which is short on depth - should have a scheme in place.

With both Dartmouth and Columbia having a short bench, Saturday night could be unpredictable.

Penn might be fortunate to play Brown on a Friday if Max's back is an issue. On the other hand, Wang's health might countervail that thought.

As a Harvard fan, I guess I'll root for Dartmouth and Cornell to play multiple OT's on Friday, with Matt Morgan playing every minute and contesting from end to end and then pushing the bus all the way from Hanover to Cambridge!


Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-07-19 12:29 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2397

Reg: 02-15-15
02-07-19 02:01 PM - Post#275359    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Neither Mike Wang or Max have any injury limitations for this weekend (nor have they for a couple weeks). Quakers are physically at full strength.

This weekend seems to me to be when we find out what Brown is really made of. These are the teams/games they will need to win to push into the top half of the league for the first time in many years.



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5554

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-07-19 04:14 PM - Post#275370    
    In response to PennFan10

Opening lines:

Princeton (+7) at Yale
Penn (-1.5) at Brown
Columbia (+10.5) at Harvard
Cornell (+3.5) at Dartmouth

That Penn-Brown line is, umm, interesting.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1691

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
02-07-19 04:20 PM - Post#275371    
    In response to mrjames

Penn/Brown is a huge game. This year in particular it will be rough to start 1-4 and make the tournament. Worse for Brown if it cedes a tie breaker to Penn by losing to the Quakers at home.

After Penn travels to Yale on Saturday, Penn then finishes with 6 of 8 at home. Even at 1-5 Penn's chances would not be dead. At 2-4 they would be very much alive.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-07-19 04:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5554

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
02-07-19 04:25 PM - Post#275374    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I have Penn at about 25% to make it even at 1-5.

 
AntiUngvar 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
Ivy opening at 14th on Kenpom
02-07-19 04:35 PM - Post#275376    
    In response to mrjames

And DCambridge is just too good a player to have 5 consecutive bad IL games-think he'll show up BIG enough tomorrow night; and the favorites should prevail in the three other IL tilts; though the Crimson perhaps by not so much as the Lions will break in what is now typically excruciating, Columbian fashion.


Edited by AntiUngvar on 02-07-19 04:36 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2397

Reg: 02-15-15
02-07-19 05:12 PM - Post#275393    
    In response to AntiUngvar

I am hoping Cambridge is too good to make it 6 consecutive bad games. We need that 5th one....

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2397

Reg: 02-15-15
02-07-19 05:12 PM - Post#275394    
    In response to PennFan10

Penn -1.5 is a sucker bet.

 
AntiUngvar 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
02-07-19 06:13 PM - Post#275404    
    In response to PennFan10

  • PennFan10 Said:
I am hoping Cambridge is too good to make it 6 consecutive bad games. We need that 5th one....

you don't need anything of the kind, Sam! To hear SomeGuy tell it, you can lose six straight more, and still get in at 5-9!


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 13351

Reg: 12-02-04
02-07-19 09:12 PM - Post#275427    
    In response to AntiUngvar

I would hate to be against you.

Then I'd be Anti-Anti Ungvar and I'd have to join the AAU.

At least I could contribute to the scouting reports, though.

 
AntiUngvar 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
02-07-19 09:25 PM - Post#275428    
    In response to penn nation

I love you, professor- at least more than most white people here do. Just try to offer some temperate remarks about the officials you may observe this weekend.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4933

Reg: 11-22-04
02-07-19 09:55 PM - Post#275429    
    In response to AntiUngvar

You’re not reading my stuff very well — I think 8-6 likely will be required to get in this year.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1691

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-07-19 10:04 PM - Post#275430    
    In response to mrjames

Harvard/Columbia line went up to -12 but is now at -11.5

Harvard had a great run last weekend, not sure they can win every game decisively at home, even if they did it against Yale.



 
AntiUngvar 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
02-07-19 11:44 PM - Post#275436    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
You’re not reading my stuff very well.

On rare occasion, even I can take pride in finding myself on the right track.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1691

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-08-19 07:43 AM - Post#275443    
    In response to AntiUngvar

Brown vs Penn line now even
Harvard -11 vs Columbia

Is this board moving markets?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5554

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-08-19 08:50 AM - Post#275454    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Shop wisely... appears you can get both Penn and Brown at +1 right now. Seems to be value on Brown and the under, regardless. 139 seems like a lot of points for two good defensive teams.

 
AntiUngvar 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
02-08-19 09:53 AM - Post#275473    
    In response to mrjames

Upon further review, I'm thinking that game in Hanover tonight may be a really, really good one- with Syracuse Coach Boeheim's son being a difference maker for Big Red!


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 13351

Reg: 12-02-04
02-08-19 01:59 PM - Post#275503    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
Brown vs Penn line now even
Harvard -11 vs Columbia

Is this board moving markets?



I thought we were the market.


 
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