UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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11-14-18 11:53 PM - Post#265643
In several of the Allen preseason years, we talked about the great depth of the team only to discover that that meant we had a big pool of ordinary players. I offer in contrast the latest Pomeroy offensive rating numbers of the current team. I admit that it is very early, the opposition has been ordinary, and such ratings are a trifle arbitrary. However, in my ten or so years of reading Ken Pom's work I have seen nothing like this for any of the Ivy's.
Brodeur 105.9
Wang 127.8
Dev G. 105.3
Woods, 118
Jackson D. 143.8
Max 124.4
Jake 131.3
Simmons 147.7
tyler H. 133.2
Of the people who have gotten reasonable time, only Bryce Washington is below 100 at 80.3 although he is 5-11 from 3.
Sure, these numbers are bound to fall dramatically after a few more games, but their tail of the distribution status says much about the improvement in Penn's talent and the coaching ability of you-know-who.
Two other notes. If Dev and Jake keep playing the way they have been, Penn WILL content this year! Betley or no Betley injury, point guard was the most important issue. It looks like it is solved.
Second, the much improved free throw performance looks like a major gut check. The team, and I mean the players, has apparently decided not to repeat the embarrassment of the first game. Such things never happened during the previous administration.
Wow!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21272
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Depth
11-15-18 12:09 AM - Post#265644
In response to UPIA1968
The Paradise Jam will pretty quickly let us know if the data we have so far are just one big sampling fluke.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-15-18 10:07 AM - Post#265651
In response to penn nation
My thought exactly. They'll play one team that's theoretically at about the same level as they are, and another that's in or near the top 25. So, let's see what we think about all this early next week.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32877
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 10:17 AM - Post#265654
In response to Silver Maple
Does this tournament have a bracket or are all the games etched in stone?
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3781
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-15-18 10:38 AM - Post#265663
In response to palestra38
Not sure. I might need to head out to St. Thomas to find out. I always say that the best way to get information is onsite.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32877
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 10:41 AM - Post#265668
In response to Silver Maple
Does Amtrak go there?
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2143
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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11-15-18 11:07 AM - Post#265678
In response to palestra38
Does Amtrak go there?
Doubtful, unless they have recently begun submarine service.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32877
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 11:13 AM - Post#265680
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Seriously, the PennAthletics site has it as Northern Iowa, then E. Kentucky/Kansas State, then TBA. So it appears to be a bracket, but I'm looking for the bracket if anyone has found it.
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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Depth
11-15-18 11:40 AM - Post#265684
In response to palestra38
Bracket, internet feed and other stories for Paradise Jam.
First round winners play Sunday and Monday evening.
First round losers play Saturday and Monday afternoon.
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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11-15-18 11:41 AM - Post#265685
In response to palestra38
I think this bracket is accurate:
https://basketballtravele rs.com/documents/2018/9/2...
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32877
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 11:51 AM - Post#265686
In response to westcoast
Thanks to you and Stu---so if we beat Northern Iowa, we play the winner of K. State -E. Ky and if we lose, we play the loser, and likely will not play another really good team in the tournament. That first game, then is all-important.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 12:30 PM - Post#265688
In response to palestra38
Generally how these types of bracketed events always "appear" on the surface. But from recent Harvard and Princeton ones, crazy things can happen.
For instance, last year, Wash St. went bananas on St. Joe's and even though Harvard lost the opener, it got a much better (and near Tier 2 oppt) in St. Joe's AND a Tier 2 game vs. Cal St. Fullerton on the road. Princeton lost to MTSU to start and would have gotten a better opponent (Davidson) in the final round if it had *lost again* to Akron in R2. Both of those appeared on the surface to be lost causes with a R1 loss, but crazy stuff happens in these neutral site ones. (Not to mention the 2016 Diamond Head where Harvard got a much easier Auburn in R2 after the Tigers upset New Mexico and the 2012 B4A where Harvard got UCF in the finals after the Knights picked off UConn).
Maybe this tourney will be shockingly formful (though rarely do you see teams as bad as Kennesaw St and EKU in an actual bracketed event, so they are probably heavier favorites than normal to be the 7th place game), but Penn should expect at the very worst Northern Iowa and Oregon St./ODU which wouldn't be a bad couple games to leave the islands with. Opening round win is obviously a better path (UNI, KSt, Missou/Oregon St./ODU) but all is not lost with an R1 defeat - could still possibly end up with a matchup against a Tier 2 foe.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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11-15-18 01:28 PM - Post#265698
In response to mrjames
I agree that this team has great depth and it is playing together as a team better than any other team I've seen. Everything is flowing beautifully. That said, I do think that everything looks easier when you play Rice and possibly Lafayette (we don't really understand what kind of team Lafayette is yet). I'm not diminishing the team in any way - our team would have squandered even those games in years past.
I'm very confident that the teamwork will survive any competition. I'm not sure about whether individual players' efficiency will.
For example, I was thinking to myself during those games how well Silpe was playing. He was playing against physical equals, and out hustling them. I'm not sure if that will work well if he is playing against some physical specimens. I'm not picking on him - just not yet sure.
A comment I made under my breath was that even free throws are easier to hit when your competition isn't as strong.
Good luck to the team and all of us as the schedule heats up! 
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1979Quakers
Freshman
Posts: 81
Age: 58
Reg: 06-06-17
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Depth
11-15-18 02:08 PM - Post#265704
In response to mrjames
I was looking at the bracket and it has always perplexed me as to how the pairings are made so I am going to take an uneducated, throw s*** at the wall guess. It looks likes the teams were ranked 1 through 8 with Kansas State #1 and E. Kentucky #8. What I am gathering is the rankings were as follows:
1. Kansas State
2. Missouri
3. Old Dominion
4. PENN
5. Northern Iowa
6. Oregon State
7. Kennesaw State
8. Eastern Kentucky
Using this criteria, I can see why the Quakers were paired with Northern Iowa. It is quite clear that the tournament organizers are hoping for a Kansas State-Missouri final and the setup provides evidence of this, although I would not sleep on Old Dominion coming out as the victor in the tournament.
Penn does have a shot to win this and make an early mark on the college basketball landscape. Winning this will probably earn them a lion's share of Top 25 votes and an outside chance to sneak into the Top 25 itself.
Edited by 1979Quakers on 11-15-18 02:08 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Depth
11-15-18 04:38 PM - Post#265725
In response to 1979Quakers
I'm not sure if every tournament differs, but as far as I know, these MTEs are bracketed by schools saying what other schools they don't want in the first round/want on the other side of the bracket. If the Paradise Jam is done similarly, then probably there were conversations to put Missouri and KSt on opposite sides of the bracket and maybe that they'd want to avoid Oregon St./Northern Iowa/Penn in the first round or something.
I wish they'd seed these things, because it typically happens that the lack of seeding causes a couple good mids to be paired unfairly, but that's generally how it's done.
Really the only team that should be totally miffed here is KSt, which probably should have gotten Kennesaw instead of EKU. And Oregon St. is darn close to Missouri, but they have *very* different openers. Penn, Northern Iowa and ODU all are in different orders at KenPom and Bart, so Penn-UNI seems pretty fair as a "4-5" opposite the 1 of KSt.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590
Reg: 02-15-15
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11-15-18 04:54 PM - Post#265732
In response to mrjames
Too 25? What are you smoking? I need to get a drink
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32877
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 05:01 PM - Post#265735
In response to PennFan10
Just so everyone knows, it was 1979, not Mike James, who said Penn would move into the top 25 by winning this tournament. And yes, I want some of what he is drinking, too.
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1979Quakers
Freshman
Posts: 81
Age: 58
Reg: 06-06-17
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 11-15-18 05:54 PM - Post#265746
In response to palestra38
The only reason that I noted top 25 is that I already saw this with Buffalo after they beat West Virginia on the road with them moving into the 25th position in the AP poll. If Penn wins the tourney, they will have beaten a decent Northern Iowa team and a K-State team ranked 12th in the nation (close to the 13th ranking of the Mountaineers). Missouri and Old Dominion are hard to get a read on as their first two games each have been a bit meh so the good will built with a win over a ranked team may cancel out somewhat, thus the outside chance notation. Then again, we can dare to dream.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 05:58 PM - Post#265747
In response to palestra38
Definitely Founders Centennial IPA.
Also, while I didn't say it, if Penn goes through UNI, No. 12 Kansas St and Oregon St. or Missouri to win the Paradise Jam, there's a very good chance the Quakers could be ranked on Monday. Would be very similar to the Harvard 11-12 B4A run - though it took Harvard another week of winning to crack the Top 25.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23492
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-15-18 06:04 PM - Post#265748
In response to mrjames
Just stop this right now.
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