mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-15-19 08:02 AM - Post#283630
In response to palestra38
On the HCA front, I’m not sure what to tell you. I’ve done empirical research on this, others in the cbball analytics space have done research on this, one book I’ve read in the general sports analytics space even deals with it. HCA doesn’t equal fan support. One fascinating tidbit about HCA, though... as the world shifts to higher and higher 3PA/FGA, HCA is starting to erode a bit.
As for the injuries, that’s less of an empirical argument and more of an opinion, I guess. Interested to hear the argument for losses that were greater than Towns for the year plus Bassey, Juzang and Lewis playing vast stretches either through injury or finally having to miss games with injuries. That’s a former POY, former 1st Teamer and a guy who’d have a defensive POY by now if that award hadn’t become so senior biased. Not only that, Harvard’s marquee win (@St. Mary’s) came without a two-time 1st Teamer, who missed half the season.
For as much as other teams have had injury issues, one other Ivy has had extraordinary injury luck in both years (Penn, then Yale) and that proved too much to overcome. That being said, Harvard’s record against the other Ivy Tourney teams the past two years is a solid 13-3 including a perfect mark road and neutral - that Harvard hasn’t been able to win an unnecessary extra road game each year shouldn’t distract from the dominance they’ve shown in big Ivy games.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-15-19 09:18 AM - Post#283634
In response to mrjames
What I am saying is that there is unlikely to be any statistics about HCA where the venue is really a neutral site in atmosphere as Yale was this year--it is a unique situation....playing a tournament at a location where the team has minimal local interest and its students are away on break. I didn't think that it was a pro-Yale crowd at all. Even in locations with limited attendance, there still is a HCA when the opponents don't bring fans to the game.
As for the effect of injuries, Harvard simply had greater backup talent so that the loss of Towns (especially once Aiken returned) was not nearly as devastating as the loss of Betley or Cannady. Penn survived until it then lost Wang (never was the same after the Toledo injury) and Washington to nagging injuries and finished the year with seniors who were previously deemed not quite good enough to compete for a championship. And Princeton really had 3 guys who played at a top level and losing one was killer for them. Harvard simply went into the sack and pulled out another top recruit.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-15-19 10:44 AM - Post#283642
In response to palestra38
It appeared to me that Yale fans absolutely outnumbered Harvard fans.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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04-15-19 10:56 AM - Post#283644
In response to mrjames
Is HCA more about the refs favoring the home team than anything else? And would that explain why a higher 3PA/FGA — since there'd presumably be fewer drives where a foul might be called — seems to decrease HCA?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-15-19 10:59 AM - Post#283646
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
You're probably counting the fans of the other two teams who had tickets for both games and rooted against Harvard. That would have happened no matter where the games were played.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-15-19 11:29 AM - Post#283650
In response to palestra38
I don't think so. I saw what they were wearing as they entered and were inside. Maybe the P's fans purchased Yale clothing after Saturday, but I doubt it.
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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04-15-19 12:25 PM - Post#283655
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I agree with HarvardDadGrad - there were a lot more Yale fans than Harvard fans.
But HCA is a lot more than fan support. Familiarity with the court and arena, travel, hotels, etc. all are factors. That's why even teams with no significant fan base or attendance still show sizable home court advantages.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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04-15-19 08:10 PM - Post#283668
In response to westcoast
I agree with HarvardDadGrad - there were a lot more Yale fans than Harvard fans.
But HCA is a lot more than fan support. Familiarity with the court and arena, travel, hotels, etc. all are factors. That's why even teams with no significant fan base or attendance still show sizable home court advantages.
Exactly -- there is a reason why a home team generally has a 3 pt advantage. Although Harvard arguably had an even greater challenge playing Penn at the Palestra in 2018, they still had a disadvantage in 2019 but at least for them, they will have a home court advantage in 2020 ---- it is indeed called IvyMadness for a number of not so good reasons.
Equating the loss of Aiken and Towns to Betley and a banged up freshmen Wang or Cannady is simply an overstatement. There always seems to a bit of jealously wrapped around some of these non-factual statements but it is what it is.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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04-16-19 09:25 PM - Post#283702
In response to bradley
Towns's loss was mega-huge. He was way better when healthy than all other offensive options (beyond Aiken) for Harvard. Surviving that loss and being able to "reach into the sack for another top recruit" without collapsing is a good indicator of having a non-disappointing team. (That's not even considering the unfortunate late-season injury that limited Bassey's effectiveness.)
I still liked Yale better than the Townes-less Crimson despite the head-to-head record, but it was a whole lot closer than you might think. Even Harvard's loss to UNC was kind of encouraging in that they were not physically overmatched but rather out-skilled without their two best players at scoring and ball-handling, which is not the usual formula for an Ivy loss vs. a backboard-pounding, fast-breaking program like the Tar Heels.
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