AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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01-09-19 11:55 AM - Post#271838
I look forward to hearing from the regular, less regular and irregular contributors on the following:
I, for one, am sold on the Brown Bears men's bball team- they'll win 7 to a dozen Ivy games, and finish in the top four of the league standings. That posted, my fundamental concern is as follows- does Columbia have even a remote shot of joining them there; or are the Lions, to use the words of one of our UPenn affiliates, simply a dead horse?
We know the IL is strong; but no team is perfect, and no team will 14 league games. So, to finish fourth, a .500 finish would appear to be a minimal requirement. Can Columbia win one-half of their team's leagues? YES; but it won't come about as a result of SEVEN wins at Levien Gym; and there's the rub: to entertain any notion of extending the season, past March 9, Columbia MUST win, at minimum, one league road game. So, do the Lions have it in them to win once away during the next 60 days, a place where they've lost 13 straight IL games dating back to January, 2017? Would it be reasonable to imagine that Jim Engles has learned anything from the 28 road losses he's endured during his brief time at Columbia?????.... From any of the second half meltdowns- this season: at Fordham, at Rutgers, and at Binghamton; or from the past season: at UConn, at Albany, at CORNELL, or at YALE? As Tod Hawks has written, "I've seen this movie before"- Columbia leads through twenty minutes of play; opponents make adjustments; Engles is caught flat footed; resultant narrow Columbia defeat ensues; or, in the rarest instance, an ESPN Play of the Day from Stefanini salvages the situation. So while I do look forward to the league season, there is an unmistakable sense of dread for me to deal with, too. More importantly, how do YOU see it?
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2163
Reg: 02-14-06
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01-09-19 12:32 PM - Post#271844
In response to AntiUngvar
Brilliantly constructed question and I am tempted to set aside the needs of my clients and spend the remainder of the day trying to respond. However, sometimes we have to fight temptation, so I would say, in brief, my answer is that Columbia has certainly improved in the last few games, and if that improvement continues, I believe the Lions could earn a playoff spot. As for Engles, his record the last 2-1/2 years speaks for itself, but he seems to be getting it now, so we all need to support him 100% going into the Ivy League season.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2958
Reg: 03-02-08
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01-09-19 01:15 PM - Post#271846
In response to Columbia 37P6
Despite the losses, the team that went to OT against Rutgers and played BC tough, both on the road, has demonstrated that we have enough talent to be competitive in all of our games. If he continues to improve, Tape can be one of the best front court players in the IL. And Brumant is certainly a credible front court player. While I would rather see Stef at SG instead of at PG, he is a talented, tough and take no prisoners sort of guy who can rise to the occasion. Adlesh off the bench is a tremendous three point shooter. So here are the question marks: is Jake going to be a credible third option; is Nweke going to hit a roadblock; is Bibbs ever going to become a contributor; is Maka ready for prime time on both ends of the court (he can score but can he defend); and will Engles show continued improvement as a game manager?
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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01-09-19 02:59 PM - Post#271855
In response to Chet Forte
Gentlemen: Thanks for your commentary. I'll take your suggestions, re: fan behavior modification under advisement; I simply hope these CU kids get something positive out of this season & overall basketball experience, given all of the hard work and time invested.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3044
Reg: 10-20-14
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01-10-19 09:52 AM - Post#271930
In response to AntiUngvar
Right now, the Lions should make sure that they do everything they can with Cornell before they welcome the P's at the beginning of February.
With the loss of Gettings, Cornell is not as good as last year. However, they still have Matt Morgan, who is capable of putting up 30+ on any given night, have an improved Josh Warren and are playing much better three point defense.
Last year, Columbia crushed Cornell at home and really had the Big Red on the ropes, but gave it back one week later. If Columbia has any hopes of the #4 spot, they probably need to sweep the two Saturday games.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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01-10-19 10:45 AM - Post#271939
In response to Columbia 37P6
I am tempted to set aside the needs of my clients and spend the remainder of the day trying to respond.
Just let your clients know that it's Elmira Week at Columbia- they'll understand, I'm sure!
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2163
Reg: 02-14-06
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01-10-19 12:56 PM - Post#271960
In response to AntiUngvar
I tried to do just that, but none of my clients seem to have heard of Elmira College, or even Elmira, New York. Meanwhile, I note the wisdom of rbg's comment regarding the importance of Columbia sweeping Cornell. He's obviously correct that if Columbia has any hope of capturing the #4 playoff spot, it better win both games against Cornell. A split probably ends the Lion's chances of making the playoff, while a double loss effectively knocks us out.
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mountainred
Masters Student
Posts: 510
Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
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01-10-19 02:20 PM - Post#271969
In response to Columbia 37P6
For my money, both Cornell and Columbia have odds of "anything can happen, but don't count on it" for making the ILT. And, yeah, a sweep of their travel partner is a necessity for either one.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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01-10-19 03:27 PM - Post#271982
In response to mountainred
Yes. A sweep with still plenty of work to be done in it's wake.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-11-19 02:33 PM - Post#272128
In response to Columbia 37P6
While every year is different, and 6-8 probably won’t get you in this year, I would caution against the attitude that you have to start 2-0.
Cornell started 0-3 last year (and within a point of 0-4) and still made it. The year before Penn started 0-6. Obviously our attitude as fans can be different from that of the team, but I prefer to avoid the assumption that an early game is a must win — I think it can be detrimental to the team going forward if they lose the game.
Obviously it is better to sweep Cornell that not to. But going 1-1 or 0-2 isn’t the end of the world. Find a way to 8 wins.
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mountainred
Masters Student
Posts: 510
Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
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01-11-19 02:47 PM - Post#272129
In response to SomeGuy
While every year is different, and 6-8 probably won’t get you in this year, I would caution against the attitude that you have to start 2-0.
Cornell started 0-3 last year (and within a point of 0-4) and still made it. The year before Penn started 0-6. Obviously our attitude as fans can be different from that of the team, but I prefer to avoid the assumption that an early game is a must win — I think it can be detrimental to the team going forward if they lose the game.
Obviously it is better to sweep Cornell that not to. But going 1-1 or 0-2 isn’t the end of the world. Find a way to 8 wins.
Forgot about Penn coming back from 0-6. Still, the computers are pretty consistent that the Lions and the Red are starting league play as teams 7 and 8. If you can't get two wins there, it is going to be very hard to get to eight.
Both teams should play out the season though, just in case.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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Given the clear emergence of the Brown Bears, does Columbia have any shot a 01-11-19 05:59 PM - Post#272136
In response to mountainred
No, let's NOT forget UPenn coming back from 0-6 in '17.
It's more the case that SomeGuy needs to do a much better job of homework on the subject before posting- his school had a very good non-conference record that season with wins over Robert Morris, Lafayette, Drexel, Fairfield and LaSalle. Those early wins served the Penn kids wel, when they hit that 0-6 IL mark; for they KNEW they could still win games and they proceeded to go on and demonstrate just that.
Similarly, last season's Cornell team had some impressive, early, non-conference victories against
Binghamton, Duquesne, Lafayette, Longwood and Toledo- SomeGuy may not remember much, but I'm willing to bet he does remember Toledo (certainly Steve Donahue remembers Toledo only too well). So Cornell got off to a confidence building start last year; and when their IL season started with 3 losses, they weren't so much phased by it. Thanks in part to their November and December successes; and having Stone Gettings and Matt Morgan as first and second options,
they (not so surprisingly) went on to claim a spot in the March, 2018 Palestra tourny. We don't need a rocket scientist to explain to us that there's always a viable path to New Haven in March as long as the calendar still shows an early February date.
But when your pre-Christmas game results have not been what you had in mind, then going on to lose your initial IL contests, too, will usually only and regrettably confirm for you, that your team's not one of the league's four best.
Edited by AntiUngvar on 01-11-19 06:27 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-11-19 11:45 PM - Post#272149
In response to mountainred
Even at the end of last year, the computers had Cornell well behind where Columbia is right now. The league wasn’t as good, so it was possible for the 4th place team to be 265 in the country, but that was still significantly behind Princeton and Columbia. So the computer numbers are meaningful, but they don’t tell the whole story.
As a Penn fan, though, it’s fine with me if you guys want to give up and skip the games!
Should be a fun year — my prediction is that everyone loses at least 3 league games.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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the clear emergence of the Brown Bears, does Columbia have any shot a 01-11-19 11:49 PM - Post#272150
In response to AntiUngvar
For Cornell last year, I think the key was the tune up against Central Pennsylvania College right before the Ivy season.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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Re: the clear emergence of the Brown Bears, does Columbia have any shot a 01-12-19 01:20 AM - Post#272155
In response to SomeGuy
And you're certainly entitled to thinking that!
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2958
Reg: 03-02-08
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01-12-19 08:45 AM - Post#272162
In response to AntiUngvar
I frankly bemoan the dire outlook of some of my fellow Lions. Despite losing our two best players in Smith and Meisner we have been on an upward trajectory against some quality opponents, and on the road to boot. Tape and Brumant have shown enormous improvement and are a formidable front court combination. Tape in particular is a potential revelation in terms of his length and athleticism. Nweke is very promising. Stef is a gutty and talented guy who has sacrificed his scoring to move to the point. Adlesh is one of the deadliest three point shooters in the country. To be sure we need Killingsworth to be more assertive and Bibbs to show why he was such a promising recruit. I also like Maka Ellis for his scoring potential. And Engles has become a better game manager. So we have the ability to be competitive against all of our opponents.
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AntiUngvar
Masters Student
Posts: 530
Age: 69
Loc: New York City
Reg: 07-23-18
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Given the clear emergence of the Brown Bears, does Columbia have any shot a 01-12-19 11:39 AM - Post#272174
In response to Chet Forte
Chet,
These aren't even Columbia people you're referencing. They're obviously entitled to their points of view; then again, NOBODY wrote anything to them remotely suggesting any benefit to a school's not playing out the entire 14 game season. This Guy invariably looks to make things up, sprinkling in a half truth in alternating sentences as he goes along. He should, in fact, really look to post on the Penn page; though I suppose they know him only too well over there.
Edited by AntiUngvar on 01-12-19 12:00 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3044
Reg: 10-20-14
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01-12-19 12:26 PM - Post#272178
In response to AntiUngvar
Yes, 2017 Penn and 2018 Cornell show that losing the first few is not the end of the world.
Looking at KP, Columbia is favored in 2 league home games and they are only a 1 to 7 point underdog in the other 5 games. On the road, they are within 3 to 7 point underdogs in 3 of the 7 games. With an improving team and the assorted ups & downs each team will face during the conference season, it is certainly understandable to think that the Lions have a chance to get to the #4 spot by year's end (no matter if you are pro or less pro Engles).
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2958
Reg: 03-02-08
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01-12-19 12:53 PM - Post#272180
In response to rbg
I think the big open question is the continued emergence of Tape. He went to a very small private high school in the south and is a true under the radar type of guy who did not have a year of seasoning at the New England preps. It was always obvious that he had unusual athletic ability for a player who is a true 6’10â€, but his game was undeveloped and he could not stay out of foul trouble. If he continues to progress he will be a real matchup problem for other teams.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-12-19 01:40 PM - Post#272185
In response to Chet Forte
Tape has clearly developed nicely and having a real presence inside is great for the Lions.
I've been noticing that the league seems to be improving generally in that regard. Princeton's Aririzugoh, Dartmouth's Knight, Yale's Atkinson, and Harvard's Lewis play more like 5's than 4's and are effective. Brodeur plays more like a 4, but with Rothschild and Wang Penn can have 2 effective bigs on the floor. Brown plays with Choh (a 4) and has more traditional bigs in DeWolfe and Fuller. If Cornell had Gettings, I'd put him in this discussion as well, although he plays like a 4 as well.
Not sure if this is a step up in due diligence in recruiting or whether the league is finally competitive when recruiting for size.
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