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Username Post: Pennsylvania Redux        (Topic#22454)
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2244

Reg: 02-15-15
01-13-19 03:09 PM - Post#272470    
    In response to SRP

Another nice performance from Aririguzah. He is playing at a first team all conference level through 2 IL games, and against a first teaser. To me, Princeton and Yale are the two best teams in the league as those are the only two who are playing with 3 first team IL caliber players right now. Doesn’t mean it will last but through 2 games and after the road win at ASU, Princeton has to be one of the favorites.

 
Petrie 
Freshman
Posts: 37

Age: 65
Reg: 11-14-16
01-13-19 04:02 PM - Post#272473    
    In response to PennFan10

I agree with those suggesting Llewellyn is playing through pain. Hopefully the lay off for exams will get him back on track.

Still, one name will remind all old timers how valuable a dependable ball handler can be, George Leftwich. If all Llewellyn go do this season is to defeat ball pressure, play good d, and distribute I will gladly take it, and highly value it.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3777

Reg: 02-04-06
01-13-19 04:05 PM - Post#272474    
    In response to jeromelh

The problem with Llewelyn so far isn't just poor shooting on decent looks. He's dribbling into corners he can't get out of and throwing up shots into a sea of hands, creating bad possessions. And his turnover rate is no better than Morales's--19 in 248 minutes is about the same as 22 in 299 minutes.

I get it that the coaches and players want to encourage the highly recruited freshman with vast potential, but if Morales weren't writhing in pain periodically the team would clearly be better off with him playing more. He is not picked on defensively--that's absurd--unless you're talking about the same sort of thing Stephens was doing to Woods, Penn's best perimeter defender.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4888

Reg: 11-22-04
Pennsylvania Redux
01-13-19 04:24 PM - Post#272475    
    In response to SRP

Was Stephens picking on anyone yesterday? I thought Penn did surprisingly well guarding him, particularly given how much Silpe was on him. He shot 5 of 13, which makes for an inefficient 13 points in 38 minutes. I’d take that every time.

Aririgozuh is the only person who was scoring efficiently for either team in that game, really.

I haven’t seen Morales enough to really weigh in on the Defense issue. But I will give one small sample size observation— he went for a steal against Goodman (almost had it) but as a result got beaten about as badly as you will see a division one player get beat. Much like Cannady’s baskets were only when Wang ended up guarding him on a switch, Goodman’s only baskets came when Morales ended up trying to guard him. Might just have been a small sample size, but Morales looked like a high risk high reward defender who gambles for steals and doesn’t defend with his feet.

Edited by SomeGuy on 01-13-19 04:34 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1120

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Pennsylvania Redux
01-13-19 05:50 PM - Post#272481    
    In response to gokinsmen

On the weekly radio show, Mitch stated that he and his entire coaching staff will be heavily recruiting over the next several weeks as the schedule is wide open. Only one game in January against a Division III opponent is conducive to recruiting.

All the coaching staff needs to find is a Richmond Arirguzoh look a like, a crazy good 3 pt shooter like Cannady and a multi-purpose player like Stephens. Fortunately, the Tigers are in reasonably good shape next year although it will be a huge adjustment not to have Cannady and Stephens. Arirguzoh may get a lot of touches in 2019-20.

 
Coloradotiger 
Freshman
Posts: 28

Age: 51
Reg: 11-21-13
Re: Pennsylvania Redux
01-13-19 06:19 PM - Post#272485    
    In response to bradley

They may have already found the 3 point shooter (Cf. the thread on Ryan Langborg).

 
rbg 
PhD Student
Posts: 1568

Reg: 10-20-14
01-14-19 09:53 AM - Post#272523    
    In response to Coloradotiger

https://www.trentonian.com/sports/princeton-men- s-...

- Princeton (9-5, 2-0) got a fourth straight victory despite a 2-for-19 start from the field and a nine-point deficit just past the midway point of the first half. The Tigers made up for their tough shooting by out-rebounding the Quakers, 55-34, and grabbing 16 offensive boards. They also played steady defense themselves, holding the hosts to 32.8 percent from the floor.

“We had to come up with those boards,” said Aririguzoh, who finished with nine rebounds to go with his 17 points. “For me personally, I know we could’ve done that better last game. I have to work these guys a little bit better, play a little bit harder, especially when shots aren’t falling in the first half.”

Aririguzoh showed once again why he’s become one of the Tigers’ most indispensable players. The 6-9 junior center out of Trenton Catholic Academy converted one of the game’s biggest buckets when coach Mitch Henderson drew up a play for him to attack Penn big man AJ Brodeur out of a timeout.

Aririguzoh converted to give Princeton a 56-50 advantage with 1:22 remaining.

“With six and a half minutes left, the game was in the balance and we had a little bit of a lead, but it wasn’t comfortable at all and he had his fourth foul,” Henderson said. “We didn’t have him in the game and he was sort of inching his way toward the scorers’ table and I wouldn’t put him in. Then we put him in and he immediately gets that call and it’s like pop, pop, pop … wham. I thought that was a huge part of the game.” -

- Myles Stephens scored 10 of his 13 points in the second half, all of which came during a six-minute stretch when he netted 10 straight Tiger points. His layup with 4:28 remaining capped an 8-0 spurt gave Princeton a seven-point lead.

“He understands the success that he’s had in the past in the Ivy League and guys are going to have a hard time guarding him, but his focus and willingness to do things he didn’t in the past for the team has made leaps and bounds for our program,” Cannady said. “He had a double-double and is playing fantastic. He was at the free throw line, and I was like, ‘Myles, just like freshmen year when we played in overtime against them.’” -

- Henderson's not worried about freshman point guard Jaelin Llewellyn despite his recent shooting slump. Llewellyn was 1-for-9 from the field and is now 12-for-66 (18.1 percent) in his last five games. "All that matters is your team is winning and you (took) that charge," Henderson said. "He went up in the air and contested the ball really nicely, he made a couple free throws. He’ll keep working at it." -

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2019/01/m...

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1120

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-14-19 03:21 PM - Post#272567    
    In response to rbg

Thanks for sharing.

Will the Tigers continue to gain traction in IL play as the season progresses or lose steam? The upside might be a function of continuing to play strong defense with the recent improvement in rebounding combined with significantly improved shooting. I cannot remember when the Tigers were at the bottom of the IL as to FG% (40%) and 3 pt% (32%). It reminds me last year when the Harvard Board properly predicted that the Crismon's non-conference shooting woes would not continue based on prior performance of the players. The same could be argued regarding the Tigers as the group shot 45% and 37% last year -- only significant departure Amir Bell.

The downside is obviously that the other teams shooting better against the Tigers as they are currently shooting 43% and 33%. Additionally, the Tigers may tail off a bit based on current FT % of 75%.

time will tell.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3777

Reg: 02-04-06
01-14-19 10:39 PM - Post#272628    
    In response to bradley

I think this team is going to continue to improve. Their team-wide commitment after the Duke experience to playing harder and more physically (on D, when pressured, and in going after rebounds) will become more of a habit. Llewelyn will get better at running the offense and hit some shots. Much and Desrosiers will find their spots to attack. Aririguzoh, already playing very well, will get a bit more deference from the officials. DC3 will get back to hitting his shots. Stephens's confidence and timing on offense will grow.

Maybe the Tigers can learn to be tough and efficient at the same time and turn some of these rock fights into comfortable victories. Won't be easy, especially on the road.



 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1629
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 68
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
01-15-19 07:51 AM - Post#272638    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
Maybe the Tigers can learn to be tough and efficient at the same time and turn some of these rock fights into comfortable victories. Won't be easy, especially on the road.




It will be a grind, no doubt. Recall we were 3-1 in the Ivies until the overtime shootout loss against Brown, followed by.....

The big difference this year is Richmond Ariri. Suddenly the team is playing great defense and matchups are improved across the lineup. No one is guarding out of position.

But another big man would help, especially during back-to-back games. Does anyone have any information about Gladson? It's almost to the point that one wonders if he would withdraw from school to save a semester of eligibility.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1120

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-15-19 10:21 AM - Post#272643    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

It was dissapointing to see Gladson back in street clothes for the Palestra game after being in Tiger uniform at Jadwin. It would be helpful for him to be available as a second big to spell Arirguzoh as Much simply does not have the frame to fight off Lewis, Atkinson etc. Fortunatley, Richmond has done a good job of not fouling out by keeping his defensive position and not falling for fakes. In a perfect world, Llewellyn starts making 3 pointers -- if so, that really changes some dynamics.

For me, the key to the season comes down to no significant injuries to Arirguzoh, Stephens and Devin which is always a wild card. If the team remains relatively healthy, the biggest key is the 3 pt shooting of DesRosiers, Stephens and Much with DesRosiers being the biggest upside as he clearly has the best shooting stroke, 42% last year vs. 34% this year. Stephens is off 16% from last year (41%) and Much is off 8% from last year (3&%). Much has a slightly better stroke than Stephens but all three have under performed this year. They will get 3 pt looks with Llewellyn and even Cannady going to the hoop and dishing out, especially DesRosiers.

At the end of the day, defensive effort and execution is the key which the last three games has demonstrated. Match ups are a different subject and the Tigers have some match up issues with Yale.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1120

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-16-19 11:37 AM - Post#272752    
    In response to bradley

Henderson was out recruiting so Coach MacConnell sat in for him last night on the radio show with Myles and Bramlage as guests. No major revelations although MacConnell is somewhat more forthcoming than Henderson but still plenty of coach speak.

He shared that the coaches were more concerned about the defense vs. the offense when Tigers were down 10 at the Palestra. They figured that the Tigers would ultimately hit some shots but defense and rebounding was not good during the first 10 minutes or so. He also noted that Stephens and DesRosiers guarded Brodeur for several more minutes than at Jadwin and they did a good job plus the Tigers doubled Brodeur more than the first game.

MacConnell commented that a big part of early season funk was due to defensive rebounding and he claims that the Tigers have historically been a top 25 defensive rebounding team (statisically) for several of the past 7 years (not sure if that is true).

The sense that you got is that they are relieved not to be 0-2 and going on the road for four straight games including facing facing Yale and Brown in weekend #2.

Finally, Bramlage played Brodeur on the scout team although he could get away with all type of fouling manuevers.

 
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
Posts: 1629
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 68
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
01-16-19 01:41 PM - Post#272762    
    In response to bradley

No news on Gladson???

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1120

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-16-19 03:50 PM - Post#272772    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

No comments regarding Gladson. Previously, Mitch has not talked about injuries or specific recruiting activity. Myles made absolutely no mention as to the status of his injury other than simply stating that he wished to have played at ASU. You get the sense that Jones is not even allowed to ask certain questions like injury status.

Out of curiosity, I was able to watch some game action from Brown and Yale. Both teams are very good but Yale has an incredible amount of flexibility regarding match ups. They can play 3 bigs at the same time -- 6/7"(Reynolds), 6'9"(Bruner) and 6'10" (Atkinson) that have offensive skills that are complimentary or they can go small with Copeland, Phils and Swain. They have seven core players plus 2 other players that can compete. Offensively very good but probably not as good defensively -- shoot 50% as a team. They are going to be trouble for the Tigers and others but hopefully, I am wrong. Brown has a great player and a lot of good players but not the size or depth of Yale but then again, Cambridge almost beat the Tigers single handily in the OT game.

Fortunately for Brown, the first game of their head to head with Yale is at home.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Senior
Posts: 327

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
01-16-19 06:00 PM - Post#272776    
    In response to bradley

Yale must be rated Ivy favorites right now, although Aiken and Towns are both expected back by Feb. Tigers play a lot at home in latter part of schedule, 6 of last 8. Assuming Yale is #1 seed Tigers would do very well to avoid the 4th spot. Penn also has 6 of 8 at home to finish the regular season. 9-5 might be enough to get the 1 seed.

 
Bryan 
Sophomore
Posts: 126

Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
01-16-19 06:24 PM - Post#272778    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

In the 62 Ivy seasons starting with 1955-56 the number of regular season Ivy wins by the Ivy Champ (or Co-Champ(s)) have been:

14-14 times
13-17 times
12-14 times
11-13 times
10- 4 times

The 4 times 10 wins was the most were in consecutive seasons, 83-84 through 86-87. I'll be surprised if 9 wins is enough to get the #1 seed.

Bryan

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4888

Reg: 11-22-04
01-16-19 07:33 PM - Post#272779    
    In response to Bryan

Agreed on 9-5, but I think 11 will do it this year.

I suspect that the league winners have substantially outperformed what any Kenpom type analytics would predict over the years. Some of that may be lack of a conference tournament. The anti tourney folks might attribute that to the regular season mattering more for the top teams. The pro tourney folks might point out that it could be because the late season games historically mattered less for the teams who were out of it. Of course, it might not be lack of tournament at all, as I think the numbers would have had both penn and Harvard under 12 league wins last year.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 2244

Reg: 02-15-15
01-16-19 08:07 PM - Post#272782    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

  • JadwinGeorge Said:
Yale must be rated Ivy favorites right now, although Aiken and Towns are both expected back by Feb. Tigers play a lot at home in latter part of schedule, 6 of last 8. Assuming Yale is #1 seed Tigers would do very well to avoid the 4th spot. Penn also has 6 of 8 at home to finish the regular season. 9-5 might be enough to get the 1 seed.



Princeton is the league favorite right now as they are the only team sitting at 2-0. That's a huge lead on the field. Yale may well be 2-0 in a week or they may be 0-2. I wouldn't crown them until we see what they do against IL competition. Now, I agree they are healthy and playing well so have to be considered a contender but so was Penn just a couple weeks ago.


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3777

Reg: 02-04-06
01-16-19 08:14 PM - Post#272783    
    In response to PennFan10

Good point from a statistical perspective, but I think what people mean is that conditional on Yale having the same record as another team they would favor Yale going forward.

I agree that the perceived gap in this latter sense probably isn't big enough to wash out, from a statistical prediction perspective, the two games that Princeton has in the bank. But we'll see how the Yalies do against their dangerous travel partner pretty soon and then we'll have a better read.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1120

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-16-19 10:58 PM - Post#272809    
    In response to SRP

There have been a number of surprises so far this year including injuries, the ups and downs of some teams (Penn, Harvard, Princeton, surprises (Brown and Darthmouth) etc. The pre-season projections for teams 1-8 may turn out to be inaccurate. Personally, I do not believe that current Kenpom rankings are how the field will wind up. There is also an obvious and major wild card - the potential return of Aiken and Towns and how they will perform.

With all that said and I am probably wrong, it seems that Yale has the edge unless more suprises are on the way which is distinctly possible. As you commented, we will know a lot more after the upcoming head to head games. I suspect that there are surprisingly 6 teams in the running for a realistic shot for IvyMadness. Question is can some team runaway from the field -- it is also possible.

Time will tell. Should be an excellent and competitive IL regular season.

 
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