UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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01-12-19 05:15 PM - Post#272316
Prior to Mike's injury, Penn was 10-2 and ahead of Toledo on the road. Since they are 0-4, including the ugliest loss of the Donahue era. Their three-point shooting has fallen below 30% despite Brice's continuing to shoot above 40%.
This is what the experience has taught us. Donahue is playing only eight players despite the team's poor offense, indicating that the bench beyond the three that are getting time has little worth. That includes several players like Simmons who were supposed to help this year. This suggests that the last two years of recruiting have produced two players, Wang and Washington from 2018 and nothing from 2017 save the potential from J. Williams still hurt. Clearly, the team needs an infusion of talent from next year's class.
Prior to Mike's departure, the two point guards were playing well. Since then, they have reverted to mediocracy. Today they produced only 7 points, although their assist to TO ratio improved to 4-0.
Most importantly Mike Wang has gotten little time the last two games. That is alarming on a team with limited scoring ability, especially from three. Either he is hurt and Steve is easing him back or he is not as good as we thought he was. Let's hope it is the ankle.
This leaves us with a team that plays good D but shoots poorly and can't make free throws. That makes Penn clearly a worse team than last year, clearly not an Ivy contender, just hoping to sneak into the tournament. Put differently, last year's championship was simply an anomaly in a more gradual improvement process that will, we hope, mature next year with the return of Betley and the addition of more young talent.
As to this year, I continue to hope they will get hot. But rationally I will be watching Wang and Washington's play and will be praying that one or two of the other young players will find a way to contribute. Progress along those lines should get Penn to the tournament where a blue snow could fall. Barring that event, we will at least have taken a tangible step towards real contention next year.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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The Wang Factor
01-12-19 05:21 PM - Post#272319
In response to UPIA1968
They didn’t just forget how to play...Wang is obviously still hurt and Mitch knows how to defend us. But the lack of depth is absolutely alarming. With Jake and Tony struggling with fouls they have NOTHING. It was very apparent today. What happened to Eddie? Still no Tyler? At the end of the day it’s all about Wang. Man this sucks.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-12-19 05:25 PM - Post#272320
In response to UPIA1968
The “maybe Wang isn’t good†hot take here is truly insane.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-12-19 07:50 PM - Post#272344
In response to Chip Bayers
We heard Scott had the flu and Tyler had a boot on.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-12-19 08:54 PM - Post#272354
In response to Chip Bayers
I can think of only two reasons why Wang got only two points in a critical game today. Either he is hurt or he is less of an offensive wiz than we think he is. What is your explanation of his no show today after being cleared as healthy?
I hope it is just a freshman day off that we will laugh about next year. I notice, however, that Bryce had another quietly competent day. 3-7 from three and more aggressiveness than we have seen before.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-12-19 08:59 PM - Post#272356
In response to UPIA1968
I can think of only two reasons why Wang got only two points in a critical game today. Either he is hurt or he is less of an offensive wiz than we think he is. What is your explanation of his no show today after being cleared as healthy?
Small sample size of two games vs. larger sample size of 12 games, coupled with knowledge of what happened in Toledo game ... this really isn’t very hard, and to use the small sample to suggest otherwise is ridiculous.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-12-19 09:49 PM - Post#272386
In response to Chip Bayers
My take on this is somewhere between you guys. I think Wang has a good chance to be an All-Ivy player down the line. However, I think it is possible that, at least for now, his game matches up best against more athletic opponents. That may not be anybody in the Ivy. Maybe Yale and Brown. Definitely not Princeton.
To my eye, his ankle was not hindering him today. He looked like he was moving Free and easy. That was not the case last week.
I also think that conference play is a different beast, and some of what you see is more thoughtful game planning. I think OOC teams know who our scorers are, but pay less attention to tendencies. Princeton knows what we do, and i’m Sure put in the work to know what Wang does. He’ll adjust, but it may take time.
One coaching thing is seeing if we can find a way to better control the switches. Cannady hit 4 field goals today. Half of them were when a switch left Wang guarding him on the perimeter.
That’s what I have to say about Wang. On the analysis of the game generally, I think we outplayed them in a lot of ways today. So i’m Not sure we can draw the conclusions UPIA draws about the offense. We had a lot of good shots that rimmed out, both inside and out. The one place we obviously got outplayed both games is on the boards. I just don’t like the small lineup against Princeton. Yes, a guard can defend Desrosiers. But we weren’t getting an offensive advantage from it, and we were getting killed on the boards.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2138
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 02:44 AM - Post#272416
In response to SomeGuy
I agree with you regarding the four out, one big lineup. A team like Princeton will hunt for the defensive mismatch they can exploit when we play that lineup, and they are very good at going back to it repeatedly until we make an adjustment. I thought Woods could deal with Stephens strength-wise, but he just gave up a bit too much height in the post to be able to challenge Stephens' shot. And Desrosiers or Much on silpe in the post is a losing proposition for us.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 07:39 AM - Post#272422
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Anyone who actually watched the game and had seen the earlier pre-Toledo games can see that Wang has nothing close to the mobility he had. He simply is not close to 100%. To suggest he isn't as good as we thought (based on performance) is completely ridiculous. You don't play at a high level against high level opposition but cannot play against Ivy teams who "know" how to defense him (he is a freshman for goodness sake--no one in the league has defensed him in the past). A high ankle sprain is not something that you can just make go away in a matter of 2-3 weeks. As much as I would like us to win the Big 5, he shouldn't play the next 2 weeks.
BTW, Wang didn't make Brodeur and Goodman miss 70% of their layups. That is what cost us this game.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-13-19 08:00 AM - Post#272426
In response to palestra38
When did we stop knowing how to make layups? Every layup is a low percentage shot it seems.
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Charlie Fog
Masters Student
Posts: 586
Age: 55
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
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01-13-19 08:01 AM - Post#272427
In response to 10Q
AJ was dreadful
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-13-19 10:17 AM - Post#272439
In response to Charlie Fog
Just look at the rebounding numbers if you want to see the impact of a high ankle sprain.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 12:18 PM - Post#272453
In response to palestra38
To push back on this a little bit, why do you think Ugonna Onyekwe played better OOC, and particularly against more athletic competition? How about Matt Morgan, who has averaged more than 20% fewer PPG in conference the last two years? Or Miye Oni, who averages significantly fewer point in conference each year, despite being an NBA prospect. These are all guys who play better against more athletic competition. Makai Mason did it too. And it’s a small sample size still, but Harvard certainly looked better against big conference schools this OOC than they did against Dartmouth last night.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 12:44 PM - Post#272454
In response to SomeGuy
I'm guessing the answer in part is that the more athletic OOC teams probably figured they did not need to double any Ivy players. Within the league, doubling the key players is a far more common sight.
To push back on this a little bit, why do you think Ugonna Onyekwe played better OOC, and particularly against more athletic competition? How about Matt Morgan, who has averaged more than 20% fewer PPG in conference the last two years? Or Miye Oni, who averages significantly fewer point in conference each year, despite being an NBA prospect. These are all guys who play better against more athletic competition. Makai Mason did it too. And it’s a small sample size still, but Harvard certainly looked better against big conference schools this OOC than they did against Dartmouth last night.
Edited by penn nation on 01-13-19 12:45 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 12:48 PM - Post#272455
In response to palestra38
BTW, Wang didn't make Brodeur and Goodman miss 70% of their layups. That is what cost us this game.
We just don't have any strong finishers currently out there. Or any consistent 3 point shooters besides Washington. And mostly poor FT shooting across the board.
Wang (when healthy) and Betley are both strong here, and Williams seems like a pretty decent finisher as well.
Tough to put so much pressure on Wang, as I mentioned not so long ago--without those other key players we really need him to perform to capabilities for the team to do well.
Edited by penn nation on 01-13-19 12:49 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 01:07 PM - Post#272458
In response to penn nation
On the balls rimming out, some of that was just bad luck, IMO. But I also think we played tight, which explains some of the fumbled balls and missed shots in close. I commented to my son as we came out for the second half that I didn’t like the energy level. It seemed like we didn’t have the same bounce we usually do. While starting 0-2 ups the pressure in a sense, now it is a different type of pressure. And hopefully it will be more productive pressure.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 02:21 PM - Post#272462
In response to penn nation
You cannot make that statement until the guy plays some Ivy ball. As a freshman who got hurt prior to the Ivy season, the answer is right before your eyes. He had no spring---when he tried a 3, he flung it up. He'll be fine when healthy.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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Re: The Wang Factor
01-13-19 10:15 PM - Post#272495
In response to palestra38
There is another explanation for Wang's troubles in this game. There is now enough film available to know how to play him. As with any player, continuous adaptation and improvement are necessary to sustain stardom. Let's see if his healing and some additional coaching will teach him how to overcome such over-plays.
As this board has pointed out, AJ has not sufficiently learned to go left to overcome the overplays to his right. It showed in the second half on Saturday. Nor has he learned to shoot free throws. Marvelous player but is now struggling with his limitations.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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01-14-19 02:09 AM - Post#272510
In response to UPIA1968
I do think it made a difference that Ivy teams scout Penn much harder.
A key for us is that Wang hasn't shot well since coming back. That could be tied to his ankle sprain and getting his fitness and touch back. It also could have been Freshman volatility and good defense. I really don't know.
Some of AJ's flip shots are not exactly easy shots. Even though they are only 6 feet out, he is throwing them sideways and without much arc. He made them against Villanova, but has clearly been missing a lot in other games. I don't mind him taking them, b/c his aggression overall helps the team.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 09:13 AM - Post#272514
In response to Penndemonium
Sorry, the suggestion that teams with lower academic standards don't work as hard in scouting us is (to put it mildly) ridiculous.
If you can't tell the difference in Wang's mobility and lift pre and post-injury, you just haven't been watching him. He was a shell of his former athletic ability on Saturday.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 09:36 AM - Post#272518
In response to palestra38
I don’t think the speculation had anything to do with academic standards. It is reasonable to think that Ivy teams have more video, time and more motivation to scout Mike and devise defensive tactics for him. It is also apparent that he is not all the way back from his injury. These are not mutually exclusive. Mike will be a factor before long, but it will be interesting to see how he is used these next couple of weeks.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 09:48 AM - Post#272521
In response to Streamers
Again, it's ridiculous that Ivies spend any more time scouting Penn than non-Ivy opponents. What advantage they have is due to playing twice a year, but that has no impact with a freshman whom they have not previously seen. Does Princeton prepare for Brodeur based on what they have seen in head to head in the past? Yes. But do they do more than anyone else in preparing for Wang? No.
The 2 point game with almost no other production by Wang was because he could not run nor jump anywhere near to his ability pre-injury. A high ankle sprain can be as bad as a break in terms of recovery time.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 10:27 AM - Post#272527
In response to palestra38
So again, if that is true, why the demonstrable statistical difference for the top players once they get in conference? It exists. If it isn’t scouting, what is it?
Obviously we’ll see on Wang. But this idea that he isn’t rebounding because of the injury is patently false. You know what game he had the highest rebounds per minute this season? At Princeton.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 10:35 AM - Post#272529
In response to SomeGuy
He played only 16 minutes, got 6 rebounds, 5 on defense. Shot 1-6, 0-3 from 3. Are you seriously contending that that shows he was not impacted by his injury? Seriously? I can stand out there and if things break right, have 5 defensive rebounds fall into my hands, especially when Princeton was shooting horribly, as they were.
Let's get serious here---anyone who saw Wang pre-injury and now knows that he is not the same player and it has nothing to do with defensive prep.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 10:49 AM - Post#272533
In response to palestra38
did wang have much better 1st halves than 2nd halves in the non conference games? Cus even allowing for the idea that he wasn't scouted, after he buried a couple threes one would presume Villanova et al would say "hey, we better cover that dude".
I come back to 16 minutes - is steve really going to play a guy that was AMAZING in some very tough games in the non conference just 16 minutes while extremely healthy? When his competition is Max with a bad back?
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 10:53 AM - Post#272534
In response to Jeff2sf
p38, there is a well accepted idea by NBA thought leaders that you don't deviate from your base plans in the regular season because of a lack of practice time, because it isn't applicable against enough teams, etc. That principle goes out the window in the playoffs when the importance, the repeated opponent at least 4 times, and the extra practice time allow you to do things you'd never consider in the regular season to combat tendencies.
Given the week between games and their extra importance, I could see more gameplanning happening for Priceton. I don't think that explain even half of the downturn though.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 11:03 AM - Post#272536
In response to palestra38
Yes, I was messing with you a bit on the rebounding stat.
My observation, though, is that he was impacted by the ankle at Princeton (where he was visibly limping), but not at Penn. He looked like the same guy at the Palestra to me, but with the ball not going in the basket. On the lack of rebounds at Penn, Princeton was doing a better job of getting him into situations where he wasn’t in position to rebound on defense.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 11:13 AM - Post#272538
In response to SomeGuy
For both you and Jeff---Wang was our best offensive player for the first 12 games of the season. With him out, we sucked, and with him back at maybe 50% (I think less), we suck.
Let's face it--our only chance is to get him completely healthy, since he is the only guy who can give us what Betley gave us (BTW, he was chucking up 3s pre-game--looks great as a shooter even unable to run). A high ankle sprain is a serious injury, and we need him healthy to make the Ivy playoff.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 11:34 AM - Post#272539
In response to palestra38
how does that disagree with me?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 12:02 PM - Post#272544
In response to Jeff2sf
Yes, Jeff is pretty much entirely with you on this. I’m partially with you.
And as I’ve said before, I think having either Max or Wang healthy is the tipping point between us being good or bad, which is pretty similar to what you are saying. Our disagreement is just on whether Wang was healthy Saturday. What I would like to see, at least against Princeton, is more Wang, not less. For whatever reason (if you are right, the reason could be health), we played small way too much in those games.
One of the interesting tactical differences between how we played OOC vs. in conference is that we played more 4 guard the last two games. And one of the interesting differences for Princeton is that they played absolutely zero time with Stephens at the 4/5 against us. So they played more Desrosiers and Much than they usually do (or less 4 guard) after playing that way a lot OOC, and we played less Wang/Max (or more 4 guard). I think this was a good play by Henderson and either a bad play by us or one that was required by injuries.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 12:27 PM - Post#272546
In response to SomeGuy
The latter---almost certainly. If Wang were healthy, he would have hit a few 3s, got ahead of the field and jammed a few buckets and would have drawn far more defensive attention.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 12:27 PM - Post#272547
In response to Jeff2sf
I didn't--I was just responding to both posts. I fully agree with you as to the importance and health of Wang.
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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01-14-19 01:04 PM - Post#272551
In response to palestra38
Again, it's ridiculous that Ivies spend any more time scouting Penn than non-Ivy opponents.
It is not ridiculous. Penn and Princeton have both been preparing for these two games since the end of the first semester. Even while Princeton was at ASU, they were preparing for Penn.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-14-19 01:15 PM - Post#272552
In response to westcoast
Comfort yourselves with the fact that it wii be 2 months before the Ps can possibly meet again. By then I suspect that both will have advanced considerably UNLESS future serious injuries take their toll.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 01:40 PM - Post#272557
In response to westcoast
That has nothing to do with what I said. I didn't say that the teams didn't prepare for each other.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 02:39 PM - Post#272563
In response to palestra38
I think it is pretty obvious that he was saying that OOC teams generally are not preparing two opponents ahead.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 03:12 PM - Post#272566
In response to SomeGuy
Look, it's easy to say what you are saying, but there is a single reason we lost both Princeton games---Wang was not healthy. We have no other dependable scoring threat from the outside. We have no one else who runs the court as well. Having lost 3 of our top 5 scorers from last year, as well as losing our top potential soph (Williams), we have no more room for error. You can "mess with me" all you want, but the suggestion that Princeton's superior preparation compared with Villanova or LaSalle or New Mexico caused Wang to be ineffective is ridiculous. That's it for me on this subject.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-14-19 03:57 PM - Post#272568
In response to palestra38
Fair enough — obviously my intent is not to mess with you in anything other than a good natured way, so I am happy to leave it alone if I’m getting under your skin.
Whether it is because he gets healthy or because Penn/Wang adjust to how he is being defended, I think we both expect his offensive production to come back around. So we both want/expect to get to the same result.
But if he doesn’t come around it means I’m right. 
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-14-19 05:00 PM - Post#272577
In response to westcoast
Again, it's ridiculous that Ivies spend any more time scouting Penn than non-Ivy opponents.
It is not ridiculous. Penn and Princeton have both been preparing for these two games since the end of the first semester. Even while Princeton was at ASU, they were preparing for Penn.
Westcoast beat me to this. It is not unreasonable at all, rather it is probable, at least in the case of a school like Miami for the reasons stated. I doubt it is true of our Big5 opponents. N.B. - none of this takes away from your assertion that Wang's ankle makes the team significantly weaker. He is not our only outside threat though, as long as bryce is on the team.
If you look at the stats, and listen to your own in-game comments, getting crushed off the boards was the big difference in the game, along with the FTs. I don't think Max is anywhere near 100% which is a big part of that problem.
Do you think a healthy Wang solves the rebounding issue or the FT issue? If so, I pose the same question you asked earlier. Should Steve sit or limit him for the next 2 weeks?
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4911
Reg: 02-04-06
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01-14-19 10:59 PM - Post#272630
In response to Streamers
Have to agree that Wang looked completely healthy as advertised by the coaches at the Palestra, but Rothschild was limited and that that affected the rebounding battle.
On scouting, it is a truism in every conference that in-conference games are more heavily scouted and game-planned than out-of-conference tilts. The classic case in point last year was Trae Young of Oklahoma, who lit up everybody OOC but got stifled in conference, a difference widely attributed to him being more-heavily game-planned during conference play.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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01-15-19 02:21 AM - Post#272637
In response to SRP
I thought Wang definitely looked more limited.
That said, I'm confident that we were more heavily game planned. If you were Princeton, why wouldn't you invest extra time and effort to research an opponent who you will see 2 or 3 times during the year, who is clearly one of the few teams standing between you and the conference title and tournament, and one for whom game planning is likely to help the most (i.e. the talent isn't really superior one-on-one or athletically, so you want to disrupt their game flow). Even if they didn't invest the effort, they clearly already know more about us from playing us last year.
Princeton clearly took away the backdoor passes and defended the cuts. Those are the plays that allowed us to get easy baskets for a team that doesn't shoot so straight. We relied on guard penetration (difficult shots from Woods and Goodman), outside shooting (only Washington could shoot), and Brodeur's inside moves (he got decent shots but a lot didn't fall). We are averaging 15 assists a game, but we only got 7 in the first game and 9 in the second.
That is what went wrong. I think that we will be right back in the race when our players are healthy. I always thought the Ivy season was going to be tough.
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