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Username Post: Bison Bracketology (long)        (Topic#2252)
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 16147
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
01-26-06 07:11 PM - Post#14116    

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Although an NCAA at-large bid for the Bison would be far from certain if they lost the PL final, I think they have a chance if they go to the final with only one loss between now and then. After looking at the RPI’s and the standings in the various leagues, it appears that if there are no major upsets in who wins the strong conferences’ tournaments, then there may be nine spots available for “bubble” teams. This is based on the big conferences having this amount of absolute locks as of now:

ACC…4
Big East…8
Big 12…2
Big 10…7
SEC…4
PAC10…3
MVC…4
Conf USA…1
A10…1

The reality is that a couple of these conferences will definitely get another spot - - - it’s just a question of which bubble teams get in. The ACC and Big 12 will both get at least one more spot, possibly two, and the SEC may well get another depending on how their final standings look. After these additions and the other conference champs, that will leave perhaps six spots for other bubble teams IF no weak team wins its tournament in one of the above conferences (or in a weaker conference that has one team that must be taken, e.g. Gonzaga in the WCC). Here is a look at the current bubble teams, based on RPI , record, and conference record:


…………….…….. …………. …..…… RPI ..SOS ...Record OOC OOC
Team………... Conf…. W-L… Rank Rank Top 50 Rank SOS

Bucknell………… Pat .. 14-3 .. 31 .. 119 .. 2-2 .. 24 .. 52
UAB……………..….. CUSA .. 13-3 .. 37 .. 121 .. 1-1 .. 64 .. 119
Iowa St………..…… B12 .. 12-6 .. 38 .. 16 .. 3-3 .. 46 .. 48
George Mason CAA .. 13-5 .. 39 .. 97 .. 0-3 .. 52 .. 58
Air Force……….. MWC .. 15-3 .. 41 .. 174 .. 0-1 .. 50 .. 264
Missouri St……… MVC .. 12-6 .. 42 .. 36 .. 1-4 .. 19 .. 129
Iona………..………. MAAC .. 14-3 .. 44 .. 149 .. 1-1 .. 35 .. 124
NC Wilmington CAA .. 14-6 .. 45 .. 94 .. 1-2 .. 80 .. 117
Western Kty……. SB .. 12-5 .. 46 .. 65 .. 1-1 .. 55 .. 32
Temple………... A10 .. 10-7 .. 47 .. 27 .. 0-3 .. 39 .. 34
Kansas St……… B12 .. 12-4 .. 48 .. 80 .. 0-1 .. 58 .. 166
Vanderbilt…….. SEC .. 12-4 .. 49 .. 78 .. 2-1 .. 60 .. 144
Saint Joseph's… A10 .. 8-8 .. 50 .. 12 .. 1-3 .. 28 .. 20
Clemson………. ACC .. 13-5 .. 51 .. 75 .. 0-1 .. 75 .. 198
Xavier…………….. A10 .. 12-4 .. 52 .. 98 .. 2-3 .. 32 .. 98
Utah St…………. WAC .. 12-4 .. 53 .. 155 .. 0-0 .. 51 .. 164
Arkansas……….. SEC .. 14-5 .. 54 .. 76 .. 2-3 .. 59 .. 151
Colorado………… B12 .. 14-3 .. 57 .. 172 .. 1-1 .. 73 .. 295
Bradley………….. MVC .. 11-7 .. 58 .. 37 .. 4-4 .. 76 .. 217
Seton Hall……… BE .. 11-6 .. 60 .. 28 .. 2-3 .. 37 .. 56
Virginia…………… ACC .. 10-6 .. 61 .. 42 .. 1-3 .. 101 .. 109

Note: based on current RPI, North Carolina, George Washington, and West Virginia could be
classified as bubble teams but I have assumed they would get in based on record, etc.


Now assume that the ACC and the Big 12 will each get at least one more spot just because they have a few bubble teams and at least one will have a good enough conference record to get in, For this exercise, I’ll assume Clemson and Iowa State both get in, which leaves up to seven spots available for the rest of the teams shown above. Xavier and UAB might well be the favorites for two of the spots, which could leave the Bison fighting with George Mason, Air Force, MO State, NC Wilmington, Temple, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Colorado, and some of the others for as many as five spots. Note that Iona, Utah State, and Western Kentucky have good chances to win their conferences and thus may not enter into the equation. Their respective leagues will probably only get one bid if they win their tournament. All of the above will change constantly over the next six weeks but the caliber of the bubble teams will not change dramatically. The wild card, other than the league tournaments, is how many bubble teams in the power conferences end up with winning records. For example, any team in the ACC with a winning record will get in unless their overall record is awful.

While the Bison are certainly not a sure thing, if they held onto an RPI ranking no worse than the low 40’s, none of the other teams are clearly more deserving. The moral of the story at this point is to root against all of the teams shown above and then hope that no weak teams win the power conference tournaments. Better yet, let’s win the Patriot League and make all of the analysis moot.




 
ericatbucknell 
PhD Student
Posts: 1940
ericatbucknell
Reg: 01-22-06
Re: Bison Bracketology (long)
01-26-06 10:39 PM - Post#14117    
    In response to Bison137

well, i just updated my weekly rpi projections and bucknell running the table puts them at 0.5971 (mid-20s). losing the patriot league final is devastating and works out to 0.5857 (mid-30s). a loss there and at northern iowa brings things down to 0.5794 (around 40). losing to northern iowa but winning the patriot league championship produces a 0.5903 (low-30s). the moral: we cant lose a game at home.
The Bracket Bustin' Bison are Back!

Okay. First round streak BACK ON!


 
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