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Username Post: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men        (Topic#22597)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-21-19 06:24 PM - Post#277424    
    In response to penn nation

If Penn, Brown and Princeton each sweep at home this weekend we will have 4 teams within a single game of each other for the 3rd and 4th spots. Not far fetched for those teams to win at home.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-21-19 06:26 PM - Post#277425    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Actually, if Princeton loses to Cornell and/or Columbia we’d have a 5 team quagmire.

 
mobrien 
Senior
Posts: 389

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
02-22-19 05:50 PM - Post#277547    
    In response to penn nation

I doubt Yale's nonconference schedule would be considered strong enough for a bid if they did run the table until the Ivy League final. They had three Quad 1 games and one Quad 2 game, and other than that ... a lot of really, really bad teams. They actually played eight games against teams ranked 236 or lower in Kenpom.

Look at this murder's row: vs Albany (287th), at Monmouth (296th), vs Iona (236th), vs Kennesaw State (340th), at Cal State Northridge (272nd), and vs Skidmore (NR). It's fine to have a few easy games, but when over half your nonconference schedule is against teams worse than the Ivies...

 
whitakk 
Masters Student
Posts: 523

Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
02-23-19 12:35 AM - Post#277647    
    In response to mobrien

Don't forget a neutral with the crappy #283 (Cal)! (A few of the other teams there weren't expected to be so bad either.)

But Yale's more or less scheduled that way for at least a few years now -- a bunch of challenging games and a bunch of really bad opponents, without much in the middle. Given how the committee seems to operate (it doesn't really matter what your games that aren't Q1/Q2 are, unless you lose them) it's probably close to optimal.

If not for the three-point foul at Memphis they'd have a real at-large shot even with meh computer numbers (though it would be tough this year in a crowded mid-major field).

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
02-23-19 12:44 AM - Post#277649    
    In response to whitakk

2/22/19 (after Friday's games)
Princeton solidifies its #3 spot and closes the gap with #2 Harvard; Brown moves from #6 to #4; Cornell drops from #4 to #5 and Penn drops from #5 to #6

1 Yale (2/18/19 #1)
Auto Bid 66.5%, Playoff Probability 100.0%, 1 Seed 92.7%, 2 Seed 6.8%, 3 Seed 0/4%, 4 Seed 0.0%
2 Harvard (2/18/19 #2)
Auto Bid 19.0%, Playoff Probability 97.1%, 1 Seed 6.5%, 2 Seed 66.3%, 3 Seed 17.7%, 4 Seed 6.5%
3 Princeton (2/18/19 #3)
Auto Bid 5.6%, Playoff Probability 94.0%, 1 Seed 1.0%, 2 Seed 19.9%, 3 Seed 45.4%, 4 Seed 27.7%
4 Brown (2/18/19 #6)
Auto Bid 5.7%, Playoff Probability 59.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 4.4%, 3 Seed 26.4%, 4 Seed 28.2%
5 Cornell (2/18/19 #4)
Auto Bid 0.9%, Playoff Probability 31.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 1.9%, 3 Seed 7.3%, 4 Seed 21.9%
6 Penn (2/18/19 #5)
Auto Bid 2.1%, Playoff Probability 18.5%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.5%, 3 Seed 2.5%, 4 Seed 15.4%
7 Dartmouth (2/18/19 #7)
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 1.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.2%, 4 Seed 0.9%
8 Columbia (2/18/19 #8)
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 0.2%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.2%

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-24-19 05:46 PM - Post#277854    
    In response to rbg

Here's where I have things heading out of the weekend:

Harvard and Yale haven't clinched, but both are in the "statistically" clinched range. Yale would have to lose out, have Brown beat Cornell, have Cornell win out otherwise AND have Harvard stay ahead of Princeton. So, Yale is in.

Harvard has more disaster scenarios to consider, but as long as Yale is the top seed, the only tiebreaker Harvard can lose is to Cornell. That would mean that either both of Brown and Penn would have to get to 8-6 (possible, but they'd have to have Penn beat Brown and those two teams win every other game they play) OR one of Brown and Penn would have to get to 8-6 with Cornell at 7-7 (more possible). Harvard's only 1% to lose out, so the 8-6 scenarios are more realistic, and those would require Brown beating Cornell AND Cornell winning out otherwise. So, Harvard is in.

Princeton is in a weird zone. Basically clinched, but with a non-zero chance (7%) of losing out. It would have two of the three important tiebreakers (Cornell and Penn), so it would have to get passed by one of those teams plus matched by Brown to miss out. So, Princeton is *essentially* in (but check back in if it gets swept and Cornell or Penn sweeps).

The battle for fourth is where things get really interesting.

Brown is in the best shape, but that's heavily dependent on this weekend's schedule. In other words, Brown needs to hold serve this weekend and have other expected outcomes occur (Cornell loses at Yale and Penn loses at Harvard) to feel good about its chances. Exiting the weekend even a game up on Penn or Cornell is not a good situation for Brown, because Penn could grab the tiebreaker with a win the next weekend or Cornell could have the tiebreaker with a win over Yale. The odds vary by outcome, but anything less than Brown sweeping this weekend and being up two games with two to play would likely flip the odds to Cornell or Penn.

Cornell just needs to split either way this weekend to be in good shape. A win against Yale would secure the tiebreak with Brown even with a loss on Saturday, and a win on Saturday would secure the tiebreak just the same AND do a little damage to a direct competitor.

Finally, Penn can only watch and take care of business. The odd thing is that it probably doesn't need the Harvard win to have a chance. Unless Cornell wins at Yale, beating Harvard pretty much becomes irrelevant for the best win tiebreaker (obviously an extra win in the standings is helpful in and of itself). The main competitors (Brown and Cornell) have a Harvard win and Penn doesn't have a Princeton win to back it up, so what it really needs to win the tiebreakers is a win over Yale (best win tiebreak) and a win over Brown (head-to-head). If it gets those and a win over Dartmouth, really all it needs is a Yale sweep this weekend, and it'll probably have enough to get in at 7-7 regardless of the Harvard result.

My odds at present for the Ivy Tourney say:
Yale 99.9%
Harvard 99.6%
Princeton 97%
Brown 60%
Penn 25%
Cornell 19%
Dartmouth ~0%
Columbia ~0%

 
Okoro Dude 
Senior
Posts: 309

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
02-25-19 10:54 AM - Post#277926    
    In response to mrjames

I think Penn needs to win out. I understand your point about the Harvard game potentially not mattering, but my fear is that if Penn doesn't beat Harvard (but does beat Yale in your scenario), there is a pretty good chance Harvard wins the regular season by tying Yale in standings and getting the sweep tiebreaker over them. In that case, the Harvard wins by Brown and Cornell would trump a potential Penn win over Yale.


 
Naismith 
Sophomore
Posts: 148

Loc: RI
Reg: 11-11-18
Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 11:39 AM - Post#277933    
    In response to mrjames

Those of us alive before the pre-analytic and everyone-gets-a-trophy era would relish the final two weekends as a tremendous battle among three teams to survive the 14-game-tournament and secure the right to represent the league in the NCAA Tournament. This has been taken away for no rational reason.

Edited by Naismith on 02-25-19 11:42 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Bruno 
PhD Student
Posts: 1414

Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 01:00 PM - Post#277947    
    In response to Naismith

Except there being six fan bases that are pumped up and showing up at the games because something is at stake. Instead of there being three. And in many seasons, two.
LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh)


 
sparman 
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 01:24 PM - Post#277950    
    In response to penn nation

On a partially-related, partially-tangential point, for anyone still dreaming about a second IL bid, the articles have started about how to squeeze in more .500 (and sub-.500 in conference play) Big Conference teams into the tournament.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/story/...

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 03:22 PM - Post#277955    
    In response to Naismith

The funny thing about this argument is that we’re rapidly approaching to scenario where everyone agreed a tournament might be a good thing. Heck, if Penn were to sneak in to the 4-seed, we’d have a situation where every Ivy Tourney team had a non-conf Tier A win (the Quakers would have 2) and the conference touched 10th nationally.

I have mixed feelings about the tournament, as have been well documented here, but I think it’s important to note that circumstances have changed dramatically from the arguments we were having over this 10-15 years ago when our conf was garbage.

 
sparman 
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Re: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 04:33 PM - Post#277961    
    In response to Bruno

Not much at stake for Yale - they're in and playing at home regardless.

Harvard and Princeton pretty much assured they're in, too.

Not to reignite the interminable and repetitive arguments, IMO all that's happened is that the "fan excitement ban" has slid down to the three teams fighting for 4th instead of for 1st.


 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
02-25-19 05:31 PM - Post#277967    
    In response to sparman

Pretty sure the Harvard, Princeton and Yale fan bases are engaged as much as ever. Did you see that finish between H and Y Saturday?

There is more, not less, interest in the IL as a result of the ILT

 
BrownAlum 
Freshman
Posts: 73

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 05:33 PM - Post#277968    
    In response to Bruno

And this isn't just about fan bases, it's about the players. I was the student manager at Brown from 1988-92 and an assistant coach from 93-98 and let me tell you, it is no fun going to practice in early February when you've already been eliminated. It's nice to see so many teams with something to play for this time of year.

 
mobrien 
Senior
Posts: 389

Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
02-25-19 05:41 PM - Post#277971    
    In response to BrownAlum

Harvard, Yale, and Princeton all have potential NCAA tournament seeding to play for. There's a meaningful difference between getting a 13 or a 14 or especially a 15 seed. Every team that's in contention for the ILT crown should care about that. They all have the talent to make some noise in March — if they get some fortunate seeding.

The whole "the end of the regular season doesn't really matter for the teams that have clinched spots in the ILT" only makes sense if you think the ILT is the end of things. But as we've seen multiple times in the last 8 years, the Ivies can aspire to much more than that now.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 05:41 PM - Post#277972    
    In response to BrownAlum

Good point. I don’t think there is a player in the league that doesn’t want the ILT. They all like it. More games, bigger stage, more intensity.....just....more basketball.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Men
02-25-19 07:32 PM - Post#277980    
    In response to Bruno

Yes, besides the 3 way tie back in ‘02, I don’t have a lot of memories of a 3 team race. In fact, a lot of years it wasn’t even a 2 team race.


 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
02-25-19 09:39 PM - Post#277991    
    In response to SomeGuy

2/24/19

1 Yale (2/22/19 #1)
Auto Bid 62.7%, Playoff Probability 99.1%, 1 Seed 69.1%, 2 Seed 27.7%, 3 Seed 3.1%, 4 Seed 0.1%
2 Harvard (2/22/19 #2)
Auto Bid 20.8%, Playoff Probability 99.6%, 1 Seed 27.1%, 2 Seed 59.5%, 3 Seed 11.3%, 4 Seed 1.7%
3 Princeton (2/22/19 #3)
Auto Bid 6.8%, Playoff Probability 97.4%, 1 Seed 4.0%, 2 Seed 11.4%, 3 Seed 52.5%, 4 Seed 29.5%
4 Brown (2/22/19 #4)
Auto Bid 6.4%, Playoff Probability 63.0%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 1.6%, 3 Seed 28.5%, 4 Seed 32.9%
5 Penn (2/22/19 #6)
Auto Bid 2.8%, Playoff Probability 21.2%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.1%, 3 Seed 1.9%, 4 Seed 19.3%
6 Cornell (2/22/19 #5)
Auto Bid 0.5%, Playoff Probability 19.5%, 1 Seed 0.1%, 2 Seed 0.1%, 3 Seed 2.1%, 4 Seed 17.3
7. Dartmouth (2/22/19 #7)
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 0.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.1%
8 Columbia (2/22/19 #8)
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 0.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.1%

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
02-25-19 10:20 PM - Post#277994    
    In response to PennFan10

  • PennFan10 Said:
Pretty sure the Harvard, Princeton and Yale fan bases are engaged as much as ever. Did you see that finish between H and Y Saturday?



Come on now. I have a feeling that you might be selling the Brooklyn Bridge next.

The interest level in finishing in first place for most Princeton and I assume Harvard fans is nothing like it would have been pre-IvyMadness as it would be the guarantee to go to the Big Dance. Probably Harvard and Princeton fans are more focused on avoiding a collapse to miss IvyMadness that be the regular season champ - sad but true.

Look at the number of responses on this forum about fourth place vs first place -- not remotely close. It is a statiscian's dream talking about the probabilities of accomplishing a great achievement of finishing 4th place in a one bid league.

There are other arguements than this one that has at least some credibility.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-25-19 10:52 PM - Post#277996    
    In response to bradley

Schweiger's shooting accuracy garners him POW. (40pts, 8rbs, 3assists)

I can't see how there aren't at least Co POW's.

Stefanini- 38pts, 16rbs, 13 assists - buzzer beater for win over Penn

Aiken - 45pts, 5rbs, 10 assists - buzzer beater for win over Yale



 
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