Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Women        (Topic#22598)
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
02-07-19 02:00 PM - Post#275356    

Here are the Yale Undergraduate Analytics Group's last two weeks of playoff odds for the women.

1/27/19
1 Harvard
Auto Bid 39.9%, Playoff Probability 100.0%, 1 Seed 43.8%, 2 Seed 37.9%, 3 Seed 17.9%, 4 Seed 0.4%
2 Penn
Auto Bid 37.5%, Playoff Probability 99.8%, 1 Seed 49.5%, 2 Seed 38.8%, 3 Seed 11.2%, 4 Seed 0.3%
3 Princeton
Auto Bid 20.7%, Playoff Probability 99.3%, 1 Seed 6.6%, 2 Seed 23.0%, 3 Seed 66.0%, 4 Seed 3.7%
4 Yale
Auto Bid 1.3%, Playoff Probability 36.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.1%, 3 Seed 2.4%, 4 Seed 33.6%
5 Dartmouth
Auto Bid 0.3%, Playoff Probability 26.4%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 1.3%, 4 Seed 25.1%
6 Columbia
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 22.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.1%, 3 Seed 0.6%, 4 Seed 21.4%
7 Cornell
Auto Bid 0.2%, Playoff Probability 13.2%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.5%, 4 Seed 12.7%
8 Brown
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 2.9%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 2.9%

2/3/19
1 Penn
Auto Bid 39.6%, Playoff Probability 100.0%, 1 Seed 68.3%, 2 Seed 23.0%, 3 Seed 8.2%, 4 Seed 0.5%
2 Harvard
Auto Bid 28.1%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 19.2%, 2 Seed 34.7%, 3 Seed 42.4%, 4 Seed 3.6%
3 Princeton
Auto Bid 27.9%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 12.3%, 2 Seed 41.2%, 3 Seed 42.2%, 4 Seed 3.6%
4 Yale
Auto Bid 4.1%, Playoff Probability 76.2%, 1 Seed 0.2%, 2 Seed 1.1%, 3 Seed 6.7%, 4 Seed 68.2%
5 Dartmouth
Auto Bid 0.3%, Playoff Probability 15.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.4%, 4 Seed 14.9%
6 Cornell
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 5.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.1%, 4 Seed 5.2%
7 Columbia
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 5.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 3.2%
8 Brown
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 0.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.1%, 4 Seed 0.1%


 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
02-16-19 06:40 PM - Post#276744    
    In response to rbg

2/16/19 (not sure if it included last night's games)
1 Penn
Auto Bid 46.6%, Playoff Probability 100.0%, 1 Seed 88.3%, 2 Seed 9.7%, 3 Seed 1.7%, 4 Seed 0.3%
2 Harvard
Auto Bid 22.5%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 7.2%, 2 Seed 39.2%, 3 Seed 33.0%, 4 Seed 19.6%
3 Princeton
Auto Bid 22.6%, Playoff Probability 96.9%, 1 Seed 3.2%, 2 Seed 36.3%, 3 Seed 35.0%, 4 Seed 22.4%
4 Yale
Auto Bid 8.2%, Playoff Probability 88.9%, 1 Seed 1.2%, 2 Seed 14.6%, 3 Seed 28.6%, 4 Seed 44.5%
5 Dartmouth
Auto Bid 0.2%, Playoff Probability 13.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.2%, 3 Seed 1.7%, 4 Seed 11.4%
6 Columbia
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 1.6%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.1%, 4 Seed 1.5%
7 Cornell
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 0.2%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.2%
8 Brown
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 0.0%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.1%

 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
02-25-19 08:32 PM - Post#277985    
    In response to rbg

  • rbg Said:

4 Yale
Auto Bid 8.2%, Playoff Probability 88.9%, 1 Seed 1.2%, 2 Seed 14.6%, 3 Seed 28.6%, 4 Seed 44.5%
5 Dartmouth
Auto Bid 0.2%, Playoff Probability 13.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.2%, 3 Seed 1.7%, 4 Seed 11.4%




I'm guessing that those numbers have since narrowed, although Yale should still be in the driver's seat with the tie-breaker and somewhat easier schedule.

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Women
02-25-19 09:24 PM - Post#277988    
    In response to Go Green

2/24/19

1 Penn (2/16/19 #1)
Auto Bid 48.0%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 84.0%, 2 Seed 12.6%, 3 Seed 3.3%, 4 Seed 0.0%
2 Harvard (2/16/19 #2)
Auto Bid 27.4%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 5.1%, 2 Seed 33.1%, 3 Seed 60.7%, 4 Seed 1.1%
3 Princeton (2/16/19 #3)
Auto Bid 19.8%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 10.9%, 2 Seed 53.9%, 3 Seed 33.6%, 4 Seed 1.5%
4 Yale (2/16/19 #4)
Auto Bid 4.0%, Playoff Probability 59.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.3%, 3 Seed 2.2%, 4 Seed 56.8%
5 Dartmouth (2/16/19 #5)
Auto Bid 0.7%, Playoff Probability 31.9%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.2%, 4 Seed 31.7%
6 Cornell (2/16/19 #7)
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 6.8%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 6.8%
7 Columbia (2/16/19 #6)
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 2.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 2.1%
8 Brown (2/16/19 #8)
Auto Bid 0.0%, Playoff Probability 0.0%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.0%


Edited by rbg on 02-25-19 09:24 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
03-02-19 01:29 PM - Post#278839    
    In response to rbg


Even though Dartmouth and Yale both lost, I think Dartmouth gained ground here.

Dartmouth was expected to lose. Yale was not. While Yale still holds the tiebreaker, Dartmouth should have an easier remaining schedule.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
03-02-19 03:41 PM - Post#278876    
    In response to Go Green

I believe Cornell gained the most ground with the win over Yale ... They now have the head to head tiebreaker over Yale ... I believe Cornell may be favorite as they are playing well and face 1 of the power 3 (Harvard) and Yale has 2 (the Ps). Dartmouth only has Penn tonight. It could all come down to the Big Red vs. Big Green on the last game. There is also an scenario for a four way tie for fourth!

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
03-02-19 05:00 PM - Post#278890    
    In response to JDP

The Dartmouth loss was not a surprise, as was the Columbia win. The Cornell win/Yale loss was definitely a surprise.

Cornell and Columbia still need to pick up a game on Yale and/or Dartmouth over the next 3 games. With head-to-head games against Dartmouth, there certainly is the opportunity.

Over the last 3 games, Yale has to visit Columbia tonight and then host Penn & Princeton. With the way Yale is playing, it's hard to see them favored in any of these games. However, they certainly could win at Columbia and they may have a chance against Penn, which may have to play without Ashley Russell, who was injured late in last night's game.

Dartmouth will also play Penn without Russell, but have to do it on the road. They have already won against Columbia and Cornell on the road, but they will be without Cy Lippold the rest of the way. With Lippold, I would think they would be favored to go at least 2-1, but it does get a little more cloudy without her playing.

I think Cornell will be favored at home to Brown tonight, but will be a big underdog at Harvard and a small underdog at Dartmouth. Columbia has a toss-up tonight with Yale and will have the same chances as Cornell next weekend.

From what I can see, if Cornell cannot beat Harvard, then it needs to be in any 6-8 tie (2, 3 or 4-way) that has Yale since they swept that series.

If Columbia cannot beat Harvard next Saturday, then they will have to beat Yale tonight to have a chance to get to 6-8.

Dartmouth cannot finish in a tie with Yale, since they have a win against Princeton or Columbia since they have a win against Harvard. If they want to overtake Columbia in a tie, then Dartmouth will need to beat Penn tonight.

Not sure who has the easiest path at this time, but if I had to choose I think I would have to say Dartmouth.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Women
03-03-19 01:18 AM - Post#279076    
    In response to rbg

Under review ...

Edited by JDP on 03-03-19 01:33 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
03-03-19 01:58 AM - Post#279079    
    In response to JDP

Would not let me update my last post

Updated that Harvard is not in yet … there is 3-way tie scenario with Cornell and Yale where the Crimson are eliminated … multi way tiebreakers … corrections welcome

The Ps will finish 1-2 … the order is still TBD, but Princeton has more paths to #1 with sweeping Harvard and Penn just splitting with the Crimson.

For Penn to achieve the #1 seed … a better weekend that Princeton next weekend is the most direct route … there are others, but all require that Yale beat Princeton to have the head to head tiebreaker over Princeton and then finish higher in the standings than Harvard.

• Brown and Columbia are eliminated

• Harvard sweeps the Cs – they are the 3 seed

The simple scenarios:

1. If Yale sweeps the Ps – they could we a #3 if better record or tied with Harvard, else a 4 seed

2. If Yale splits with the Ps to go 7-7 – Harvard beats Columbia so 8-6 at worst and a 3 seed

• Dartmouth could end 7-7 as well – splitting with Yale, but Yale will have 2 wins over the Ps, Dartmouth 0 – Yale is #4
• Cornell could end 7-7 as well, but has two wins over Yale – so Cornell #4

3. If Yale splits with the Ps to go 7-7 – Harvard is swept by the Cs and is also 7-7

• Dartmouth could end 7-7 as well
• Harvard is 3-1, Yale 2-2, Dartmouth 1-3. Harvard is the 3 seed.
• Yale and Dartmouth split, but Yale will have 2 wins over the Ps, Dartmouth 0 – Yale is #4

• Cornell could end 7-7 as well
• Cornell is 3-1, Harvard is 2-2, Yale 1-3. Cornell is the 3 seed.

• Yale and Harvard split – if Princeton in 1st - Yale has at least one win over Princeton – Yale is #4
• Yale and Harvard split – if Penn in 1st – If only Harvard has a win over Penn – Harvard #4, if Yale gets a win over Penn, then Yale is #4 due to win over Prinecton

The more complicated scenarios:

1. the Ps & Harvard win out … Yale is then 6-8 …

• Dartmouth sweeps the Cs and they are the 4th seed at 7-7

• Dartmouth beats Cornell – loses to Columbia … 2-way tie (Dartmouth-Yale) at 6-8 but Yale is #4 because of a win over Princeton

• Dartmouth loses to Cornell – beats Columbia … 3-way tie (Cornell-Dartmouth-Yale) at 6-8. Cornell is #4 as the Big Red is 3-1 vs. the other two.

2. Assume just the Ps win out … Yale is then 6-8 …

• Dartmouth sweeps the Cs, they are the 4th seed at 7-7 (If Harvard 7-7, they won the head to head)
• Cornell sweeps Harvard and Dartmouth, they are the 4th seed at 7-7 (If Harvard 7-7, #3 due to win over Penn)

• Cornell loses to Harvard, beats Dartmouth, Dartmouth loses to Columbia. 2-way tie (Cornell-Yale) at 6-8. Cornell #4 with two wins over Yale
• Cornell loses to Harvard, beats Dartmouth, Dartmouth beats Columbia. 3-way tie (Cornell-Dartmouth-Yale) at 6-8. Cornell #4 with 3-1 record

• Cornell beats Harvard, loses to Dartmouth, Columbia beats Dartmouth. 3-way tie Cornell-Dartmouth-Yale) at 6-8. Dartmouth #4 with 3-1 record


Now adding Columbia to the party even though they are eliminated – they impact the tiebreaker if they sweep:

1. Assume the Ps and Columbia win out … Yale and Columbia are then 6-8 …

• Cornell sweeps Harvard and Dartmouth, they are tied with Harvard at 7-7 but the 4th seed and Harvard #3 due to Harvard’s win over Penn

• Cornell loses at Harvard and beats Dartmouth, 3-way tie (Columbia-Cornell-Yale) at 6-8. Cornell #4 with 3-1 record

• Cornell beats Harvard and loses at Dartmouth, 4-way tie (Columbia-Cornell-Dartmou th-Yale) at 6-8. Dartmouth #4 with 4-2 record


 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
03-03-19 04:37 PM - Post#279171    
    In response to JDP


In simple terms, if the favorites win next weekend, Dartmouth will be the #4 seed for the women.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
03-03-19 06:12 PM - Post#279185    
    In response to Go Green

At a 125 RPI, Yale is actually favored at home in both games next week ... realtimerpi.com has them favored 62-60 over Penn and 70-68 over Princeton. Dartmouth and Harvard are favored over Cornell and Columbia. But not sure the computer models really incorporate the recent play of the teams ... nor Saturday night road games in the Ivies. Despite what the computers may say, I still am leaning that the Cornell at Dartmouth winner is likely the #4 seed

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
03-08-19 10:18 AM - Post#279840    
    In response to JDP

3/3/19

1 Princeton
Auto Bid 32.0%, Playoff Probability 100.0%, 1 Seed 66.3%, 2 Seed 33.6%, 3 Seed 0.2%, 4 Seed 0.0%
2 Penn
Auto Bid 33.6%, Playoff Probability 100.0%, 1 Seed 33.7%, 2 Seed 66.1%, 3 Seed 0.2%, 4 Seed 0.0%
3 Harvard
Auto Bid 26.1%, Playoff Probability 99.9%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 81.6%, 4 Seed 18.4%
4 Yale
Auto Bid 8.1%, Playoff Probability 91.6%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.3%, 3 Seed 17.9%, 4 Seed 73.4%
5 Cornell
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 5.1%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.2%, 4 Seed 5.0%
6 Dartmouth
Auto Bid 0.1%, Playoff Probability 3.3%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 3.3%
7 Brown
Auto Bid 0.0%, Playoff Probability 0.0%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.0%
8 Columbia
Auto Bid 0.0%, Playoff Probability 0.0%, 1 Seed 0.0%, 2 Seed 0.0%, 3 Seed 0.0%, 4 Seed 0.0%

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
03-08-19 11:44 PM - Post#280090    
    In response to rbg

Key Games:

Yale (16-12, 7-7) vs. Princeton (19-9, 11-2) at 5 PM
Dartmouth (13-13, 6-7) vs. Cornell (11-13, 5-8) at 5 PM

Brown (9-20, 1-12) vs. Penn (21-5, 11-2) at 6 PM

Headlines:

Penn & Princeton chasing banners and the #1 seed

Yale – Dartmouth – Cornell in the running for #4 seed

If both Ps win:

• Ps’ co-champions
• Princeton is the #1 seed based on sweeping Harvard (the #3 seed)
• Dartmouth vs. Cornell winner #4 seed

If both Ps loses:

• Ps’ co-champions
• Princeton is the #1 seed based on sweeping Harvard (the #3 seed)
• Yale #4 seed (Yale owns the tiebreaker over Dartmouth head-to-head)

If Penn wins & Princeton losses

• Penn sole champion and #1 seed
• Princeton #2 – Harvard #3
• Yale #4 seed (Yale owns the tiebreaker over Dartmouth head-to-head)

If Princeton wins and Penn losses

• Princeton sole champion and #1 seed
• Penn #2 – Harvard #3
• Dartmouth vs. Cornell winner #4 seed


 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
03-09-19 10:44 AM - Post#280131    
    In response to JDP

  • JDP Said:
Despite what the computers may say, I still am leaning that the Cornell at Dartmouth winner is likely the #4 seed



Good call, friend.

While crazier things have happened, I think that it's highly likely that Princeton beats Yale tonight.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
03-09-19 12:51 PM - Post#280143    
    In response to Go Green

Best wishes to you, Belle (former Penn assistant) and team for having a reason to come to Yale next week ... the pragmatist tells me the winner of D vs. C will be in .... but still hoping Penn has the outright title!

 
dperry 
Postdoc
Posts: 2211
dperry
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
03-09-19 05:42 PM - Post#280184    
    In response to JDP

Note that Cr-D and Pr-Y begin at 5 tonight, Pa-B at 6, so things should be pretty much wrapped up by 8 or so.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
03-09-19 06:08 PM - Post#280188    
    In response to dperry

I also think it will come down to Dartmouth and Cornell.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 559

Reg: 11-23-04
03-09-19 06:53 PM - Post#280201    
    In response to rbg

After 1Q ... Cornell would be the 4the Seed with a 12-0 run to start ... still a lot of time ...

After 2Q Dartmouth storms back with an 19-0 and now would be the 4th Seed

Princeton winning by 7, 39-32, at the half - Bella and Carla have 3 fouls ... so early 3rd quater fouls could swing the game one way or the other ...

 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
03-09-19 07:47 PM - Post#280223    
    In response to JDP


Koclanes must go.



 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
Yale UG Sports Analytics Group Playoff Odds - Women
03-09-19 08:01 PM - Post#280230    
    In response to Go Green

Cornell beats Dartmouth 57-47
Princeton beats Yale 80-68

No matter what happens with Penn and Brown, Saturday's games are:

#1 Princeton vs #4 Cornell
#2 Penn vs #3 Harvard

Given how they started in league play, it's a bit shocking that Yale will miss out.

Dartmouth's second straight year coming up just short. If Lippold didn't get injured late in the season, things might have been different.

Congratulations to the Tigers and, most likely Penn, for the title. Congratulations to Harvard and Cornell for making it into the Tournament.

Edited by rbg on 03-09-19 08:01 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
03-19-19 01:33 PM - Post#282073    
    In response to Go Green

  • Go Green Said:

Koclanes must go.





Given the lack of news coming out of Hanover, I can only assume that Koclanes is staying.


 
Icon Legend Permissions Topic Options
Report Post

Quote Post

Quick Reply

Print Topic

Email Topic

2721 Views




Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.259 seconds.   Total Queries: 16   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 04:25 PM
Top