mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-19 04:52 PM - Post#277522
Harvard (-2.5) at Brown (open was -1)
Dartmouth (+9.5) at Yale (open was +10.5)
Cornell (+7) at Princeton (open was +6)
Columbia (+7.5) at Penn (open was +9)
If the favorites all win, the Ivy tourney gets pretty solidified with Princeton, Harvard and Yale looking really good, as Princeton would hold the outright tiebreakers with the two teams behind it. The race for fourth would also hit a MASSIVE pivot point the following evening with Cornell-Penn. And the race for first would take shape the following evening, as Yale could essentially put it away or Harvard could take back the driver's seat.
If the closest game flips, though, things would get interesting in a hurry. Brown would be right there in the race along with Penn, and Princeton would be back in play because the Tigers would need to beat Brown on the final Friday to have a shot at the tiebreaker with the Bears. And Harvard could even fall back into the playoff race, as none of its final four games is easily winnable.
The Ivies lead the nation in percentage of close games in league play. I tend to be of the mind that will regress and expected comfortable wins will start being true comfortable wins more frequently.
What's most odd to me, though, is that the shakiest team right now seems to be Princeton, and that's the only of the three expected "easy" wins that has moved toward the favorite, not against... odd.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-22-19 05:30 PM - Post#277543
In response to mrjames
As I mentioned in another thread, these lines have broken a couple of patterns. The opens have deviated from the HCA-adjusted KenPom spreads, and the movement is no longer as predictable as it has been. These two are related in that Vegas seems to have picked up on the fact that Ivy games are nearly always close, and some teams have a much bigger HCA then others. They are also looking at the more recent league games as opposed to the OOC results. That said, the Cornell-PU line is the real outlier. I cannot explain it. I know it may be telling me something, but I am not listening.
Harvard (-2.5) at Brown (open was -1)
I like Brown at home getting more than 2. I think it will be very close. The under at 136 looks good, just hope there is no OT.
Dartmouth (+9.5) at Yale (open was +10.5)
Going to pass on this. Yale should roll, but they have been letting up with big leads of late. Over at 149 is more than I can take.
Cornell (+7) at Princeton (open was +6)
I'll take the Red and the over at 136. -see above
Columbia (+7.5) at Penn (open was +9)
As always, which Penn team shows up? I have a hunch they play inspired ball tonight -cannot imagine they are looking ahead to (there is no) tomorrow, and the Lions are not good on the road. Give me the over at 140.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-19 10:35 AM - Post#277659
In response to Streamers
Harvard (-2.5) at Brown (open was -1)
I like Brown at home getting more than 2. I think it will be very close. The under at 136 looks good, just hope there is no OT.
Dartmouth (+9.5) at Yale (open was +10.5)
Going to pass on this. Yale should roll, but they have been letting up with big leads of late. Over at 149 is more than I can take.
Cornell (+7) at Princeton (open was +6)
I'll take the Red and the over at 136. -see above
Columbia (+7.5) at Penn (open was +9)
As always, which Penn team shows up? I have a hunch they play inspired ball tonight -cannot imagine they are looking ahead to (there is no) tomorrow, and the Lions are not good on the road. Give me the over at 140.
Got Brown right, but 43 fouls don’t make for unders
Glad I passed on Yale/DC
How did Vegas know Cornell wouldn’t rebound or shoot and PU would step up without Cannady? Still, the Red almost covered.
There is a reason I do not bet Penn one way or the other, at least I got the over right.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Friday Lines
02-23-19 11:42 AM - Post#277670
In response to mrjames
What's most odd to me, though, is that the shakiest team right now seems to be Princeton, and that's the only of the three expected "easy" wins that has moved toward the favorite, not against... odd.
The IL has been and remains unpredictable based on Friday night's play. I am not sure if it will become more predictable over the remainder of the season but time will tell. All teams with the possible exception of Yale are good to very good.
Princeton has probably been the most misunderstood team in the IL and one could have bet against the Vegas odds for most of the year. Part of it relates to the poor start and part of it may relate to analytics. Also, part of it is a credit to Henderson for coaching the team to be resilient. Henderson was getting a fair amount of deserved? criticism prior to the IL season but other than last year, he often gets teams to perform better as the season progresses.
It may all collapse in the remaining five games for the Tigers, and it could, but the experts have gotten it pretty much wrong to date. I certainly had my doubts and still not sure but Henderson does deserve a fair amount of credit working thru the Cannday distraction and keeping the team focused and alive.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-19 12:31 PM - Post#277674
In response to bradley
I agree PU is hard to figure out and Henderson is doing an excellent coaching job. With maybe one exception, every coach in the IL is doing an exceptional job IMHO. I cannot remember a time when the IL has had a better set of head coaches.
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