penn nation
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Re: Simple Question, Complex Answer 02-24-19 11:36 PM - Post#277901
In response to 13otto
OK, I think we have all of the 2 way scenarios figured out between Penn/Brown and Penn/Cornell.
Time to move onto, dare I say, the 3 way tiebreakers. Either that, or Penn/Teller.
But Penn has split with Cornell and I believe that the 2nd tie breaker is which of the two tied teams has beaten the highest finisher in the league. Both Penn and Cornell would have beaten Harvard but Penn would also have beaten Yale giving them the fourth spot.
That first part is true. But if Cornell loses to Brown and Penn wins out, the only way they end up tied at 8-6 is if Cornell beats Yale, Harvard and Dartmouth, meaning that Cornell also would have beaten Yale while beating Harvard twice. Tiebreaker still goes to Cornell for beating Harvard twice.
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PennFan10
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Reg: 02-15-15
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02-25-19 01:11 AM - Post#277905
In response to Ted
Mr James shows all the scenarios on the Ivy League thread on the main page. We have to beat Dartmouth and sweep the final weekend. Harvard win is meaningless because a win vs them ties us with Brown and Cornell (both have a win over H) and would bump to Princeton next which swept us and Brown beat. Not sure about Cornell in that scenario.
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mrjames
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02-25-19 08:55 AM - Post#277909
In response to PennFan10
Yeah, the only way that the Harvard win would matter is in the W-L column OR if Harvard overtakes Yale for first (something that beating Harvard would make it less likely it could do anyway). So, if it's going to take 8-6 to make the Ivy tourney (currently I have that at 41% - so it's still more likely than not that 7-7 is what it will take), that's obviously going to take a win over Harvard.
I was focused on the 7-win scenarios because they're more interesting, and for those, more than likely, the tiebreakers that matter would be Yale (for Cornell) and Brown (for Brown). For Penn, splitting this weekend either way would probably accomplish the same end goal (again, unless Harvard overtakes Yale for first) - it's the home sweep next weekend that's incredibly important.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
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02-25-19 09:07 AM - Post#277910
In response to mrjames
So, it is possible (likely) that the big games for Penn are hosting Yale and then Brown next weekend. Penn still needs to beat Dartmouth this Saturday.
If Harvard can can win out, starting with a sweep of the P's at home this weekend (a big if), then Penn winning its Friday night game vs Yale could deliver the regular season title to the Crimson.
Ironically, that would set up Havard vs Penn as the #1 vs #4 matchup in New Haven. A lot of moving parts, including Penn having to beat an improving Brown squad a week from Saturday and, as mentioned, Harvard sweeping both weekends.
By the way, even if there was no tournament 3 teams would still be in the running for the title, with things possibly not decided until the final weekend.
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13otto
Masters Student
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Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-25-19 10:53 AM - Post#277925
In response to mrjames
Yeah, the only way that the Harvard win would matter is in the W-L column OR if Harvard overtakes Yale for first (something that beating Harvard would make it less likely it could do anyway).
Yeah, but Penn beating Yale and losing to Harvard could give the Crimson first place (thanks to Harvard's sweep of Yale) if they win out, meaning Cornell would own the tiebreaker over Penn in a two-way tie at 7-7, thanks to their win at Harvard. Conversely, if Penn beats Harvard and Cornell loses to the Crimson, that tiebreaker goes away.
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10Q
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02-25-19 10:57 AM - Post#277927
In response to 13otto
And that's why they play the game.
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rbg
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Posts: 3044
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-25-19 12:12 PM - Post#277939
In response to 10Q
A sweep of Harvard and Dartmouth will certainly be difficult.
This year, Penn is the only one of the top 6 teams not to have a weekend conference sweep.
Over the previous 11 years, they have only swept the road weekend at H and D in 2012 (Zack Rosen's senior year).
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OldBig5
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Re: Simple Question, Complex Answer 02-26-19 12:41 AM - Post#278013
In response to Ted
Getting a headache thinking of the tiebreakers. Just win and see what happens. Shouldn't have come to this. They should be 6-4 rather than 4-6.
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Streamers
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
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02-26-19 09:01 AM - Post#278024
In response to OldBig5
They should be 7-3 counting the first PU game.
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10Q
Professor
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02-26-19 09:20 AM - Post#278027
In response to Streamers
You are what your record says you are.
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LyleGold
PhD Student
Posts: 1712
Reg: 11-22-04
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Simple Question, Complex Answer 02-26-19 09:47 AM - Post#278033
In response to Streamers
I agree with that, Steve, but we aren't what we should be. The question is if we will be what we hope we can be the next two weekends. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced we can be what we hope we can be. I think two splits are likely. I haven't seen anything this league season to suggest otherwise.
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palestra38
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Posts: 32683
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Simple Question, Complex Answer 02-26-19 10:00 AM - Post#278034
In response to LyleGold
Two years ago, we were 0-6 in the League and there would have been nothing to lead you to believe that we had a chance to make the playoff. But we did. This is a better team than that one was. We have a chance. We just cannot blow opportunities to put teams away. However, we can beat any team in this League.
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rbg
Postdoc
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Reg: 10-20-14
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02-26-19 10:50 AM - Post#278043
In response to palestra38
Penn is definitely a better team this year compared to 2017, but its opponents are also better.
I had thought the big win at Brown, one game after the gut-check at Columbia, showed that they were ready to make a move, but they then played two rough games on the road at Yale and at home to Dartmouth.
Hopefully, last Saturday's 18 point win put them in a more confident place to face Harvard and Dartmouth on the road this weekend.
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Streamers
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02-26-19 11:07 AM - Post#278048
In response to rbg
Most of the projections, including my own, have them at about 20% to make it to NH a second time. That's enough to keep me interested, along with the fact that this team has been quite resilient all year, even if they don't always play to their potential.
The key, to me, is whether SD can come up with better tactical responses to the schemes that are used against him. Some teams double AJ. Others don't. Sometimes 4-guard works for him, other times no. Sometimes he unexpectedly gets big games from the likes of Jerome and Kuba. What he needs most is a scheme for holding leads late knowing he does not want AJ at the line.
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palestra38
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02-26-19 11:28 AM - Post#278052
In response to Streamers
The real question is whether he can get performances that make up for the lost scoring of Washington and Wang from the 1st half of the season. If those guys were giving us now what they gave us then, we'd be in the top tier.
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PennFan10
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02-26-19 12:15 PM - Post#278058
In response to palestra38
The real question is whether he can get performances that make up for the lost scoring of Washington and Wang from the 1st half of the season. If those guys were giving us now what they gave us then, we'd be in the top tier.
This is as simple as it gets and I agree. SD has tried to find other combinations that make up for the fall off (for whatever reason) of these two. At this point, and its just my opinion, he needs to go with those two for 20+ minutes a game and let them play through whatever issues they are having. That's probably our best bet at making it to the 4 seed.
Our other parts of the rotation are solid.
Starters:
AJ
Antonio
Dev G
Mike
Bryce
Subs for 15-20 min a game:
Jake
Max
pick a role player/hot hand
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Streamers
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
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02-26-19 12:16 PM - Post#278059
In response to palestra38
If SD succeeds with his tactics and his rotations, that would imply Wang and Washington are likely pulling their weight.
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Quakers03
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02-26-19 01:55 PM - Post#278070
In response to PennFan10
That's probably our best bet at making it to the 4 seed.
It's our only bet. They MUST play.
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