Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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02-28-19 09:18 PM - Post#278488
Opens Princeton -1
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Dartmouth
02-28-19 09:59 PM - Post#278495
In response to Eric Von Zipper
Always good to see the Tigers as a road underdog. Based on KenPom, they are the 5th rated team in the league. Hopefully, Mitch can use it on Friday night.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Re: Dartmouth
02-28-19 10:09 PM - Post#278496
In response to bradley
The Indians have covered 4 of their last 5.
Tigers were lucky to win in Jadwin.
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Coloradotiger
Freshman
Posts: 31
Age: 56
Reg: 11-21-13
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Re: Dartmouth
02-28-19 10:55 PM - Post#278500
In response to bradley
Always good to see the Tigers as a road underdog. Based on KenPom, they are the 5th rated team in the league. Hopefully, Mitch can use it on Friday night.
Aren't the Tigers favored according to Eric's post?
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Dartmouth
03-01-19 11:16 AM - Post#278526
In response to Eric Von Zipper
Based on the game notes, I believe that there is no mention of Cannady regarding the All Time Tiger scoring records and 3 pt shots. Only mention is what players accomplished in his 7 game absence.
Would not be surprised if Devin does not play this weekend but hopefully, I got it wrong.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Re: Dartmouth
03-01-19 01:51 PM - Post#278551
In response to Coloradotiger
Always good to see the Tigers as a road underdog. Based on KenPom, they are the 5th rated team in the league. Hopefully, Mitch can use it on Friday night.
Aren't the Tigers favored according to Eric's post?
Line holding steady at Princeton -1
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Dartmouth
03-01-19 03:52 PM - Post#278574
In response to Eric Von Zipper
Does anyone understand why ESPN has Dartmouth with a 62.8% win predictably and being a one point underdog? Or is it a timing issue between the spread and matchup predictor?
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-01-19 05:36 PM - Post#278600
In response to bradley
This is one of those games where Princeton would benefit by playing a physical style. Set hard screens, fight for rebounding position, attack the rim. The Big Green are not really adapted to handle that. (Of course, not losing the turnover battle and hitting some threes would also be helpful as always.)
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Tiger81
Masters Student
Posts: 411
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-19 08:48 PM - Post#278670
In response to SRP
19-26 at the half. Defense has been good, offense looks awful. 0-7 from 3PT, 1 assist, 8 TOs and generally very disorganized. Only 3 fouls but 2 by Aririguzoh.
Coach Henderson is under the weather according to the announcers so Brett MacConnell is running the show. He will need to remind them how to cut, pass and shoot if they are going to get back in this game.
Penn up by 4 over Harvard with a few minutes left in 1H and Yale is blowing out Cornell.
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Tiger81
Masters Student
Posts: 411
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-19 09:16 PM - Post#278697
In response to Tiger81
43-39 with 10 minutes to go, 24 points vs 19 in the entire first half. Llewelyn still not finishing at the rim, but Stephens and Schweiger looking very good. Fingers crossed that they can maintain this level of play over the final 10 minutes.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-19 09:47 PM - Post#278728
In response to Tiger81
Schwieger pushed out of bounds; no call. Ball to Dartmouth, leading to blown 8 pt. lead....
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-19 10:09 PM - Post#278753
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Wow. What a nail-biter. But we hang on....
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3665
Reg: 02-06-10
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03-01-19 10:09 PM - Post#278755
In response to Tiger81
Woo! What a win! And after getting absolutely HOSED by that non-call when Schweiger was shoved out of bounds by TWO Big Green defenders at the end of regulation.
Great job by Coach McConnell subbing for MH. He rallied the troops after a lackluster 1st half and a crushing 3pt buzzer-beater to force OT. I swear something special happens when this team is forced to play slow, "ugly," defensive-minded basketball.
Can we beat Yale without Cannady? Extremely unlikely. But this team is still a pleasure to watch. Who knows? Maybe they pull off a weekend miracle.
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umbrellaman
Masters Student
Posts: 475
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-01-19 10:17 PM - Post#278762
In response to gokinsmen
Relief! How many times did Dartmouth get off the deck? A couple of home calls maybe, a couple of bad decisions by the Tigers but they manage to just escape! We made the playoffs! Reasonable to be happy about that especially with Cannady out. Gotta be in it to win it.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Re: Dartmouth
03-01-19 10:58 PM - Post#278773
In response to Eric Von Zipper
Always good to see the Tigers as a road underdog. Based on KenPom, they are the 5th rated team in the league. Hopefully, Mitch can use it on Friday night.
Aren't the Tigers favored according to Eric's post?
Line holding steady at Princeton -1
Ace Rothstein is a genius.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth
03-01-19 11:05 PM - Post#278777
In response to Eric Von Zipper
Loved how Llewellyn scored 7 of the first 10 points in OT, including a quick 5 points to take the immediate lead.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-01-19 11:07 PM - Post#278778
In response to umbrellaman
I thought the officials and the Tigers were conspiring to give me a seizure, but all's well that ends well.
One thing I wonder about all the time whe one team absolutely has to have a trey to survive is why defensive players ever have their feet inside the arc. That last trey by Dartmouth, the guy faked a drive and the defender fell for it--why? Even when they're inbounding under their offensive basket, there are defenders guarding men inside as if a layup were a threat--why?
Schwieger and Stephens were terrific. Llewelyn slowed down a little bit in the second half and his offense improved immeasurably. Still waiting for his first drive and kick out of the season. Morales was heroic in short minutes, coming up with a steal and breakaway that turned out to be crucial. Aririguzoh played great D and made fewer mistakes when double-teamed. Desrosiers was very solid.
Got to go win in Lavietes now.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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03-01-19 11:15 PM - Post#278779
In response to SRP
Llewellyn had a couple effortless drive-and-kicks at Columbia that led to open corner threes. Depends on the coverage (my sense is teams are now staying home on his drives since he has trouble finishing) but he definitely has that in his bag.
Aside from the game-tying three at the end of regulation his defense was great down the stretch today.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-02-19 12:04 AM - Post#278785
In response to SRP
Princeton started the game with some great looks and simply missed shots including Stephens, Arirguzoh and Llewellyn. Once they missed some bunnnies, they slowed down the offense going one on one and played some of the worst offensive basketball of the season. Fortunately, the defense was very strong throughout the game which always gives you a chance even with the performance this evening.
If they play like that tomorrow night and Harvard plays offensively like they did tonight, it may be a 41-39 game. What will probably happen is both teams make a bunch of 3 pt shots as the pressure is off.
Unfortunately, in the scheme of IvyMadness, tomorrow night's game does not have the importance based on tonight's results. The only benefit might be for the Crimson to improve their chances of getting the #1 seed if they have a tie with Yale based on tie breakers. Being the #1 seed looks attractive based on the possible #4 seed teams but you never know especially this year. Tomorrow's game may be simply a warm up for IvyMadness -- hard to believe.
Dartmouth plays very tough and the coach has these guys playing hard. I really like their team and they will probably have a much better record next year.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-02-19 12:53 AM - Post#278790
In response to SRP
Although the Tigers played better in the second half and OT offensively, they really missed so many opportunities to close out the game. There were several very disappointing plays that prevented closing out the game including Stephens not boxing out Ry on a missed FT, Morales giving up the ball with 15 seconds left, and DesRosiers not holding onto the rebound in regulation time. Mitch always talks about coaching the little things but there are many teachable moments tonight although the Tigers do play with grit.
Complete reversal from last season as to close games. Defense and rebounding execution is obviously the difference.
Tigers will be exhausted for tomorrow night but who cares as we have IvyMadness. I thought that all games were supposed to be important???? Unfortunately, you do care if the IL regular season is important to you.
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mmp629
Junior
Posts: 259
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-02-19 02:20 AM - Post#278797
In response to bradley
Is Schwieger really this good? Very, very impressive!
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-02-19 09:07 AM - Post#278805
In response to mmp629
Is Schwieger really this good? Very, very impressive!
Prior to Cannady's absence, 1 of 3 players needed to step up for the Tigers to compete -- DesRosiers, Schwieger or Much as it would put 5 good players on the court with Devin, Myles, Richmond and Jaelin. DesRosiers has stepped up on the defensive and rebounding end although his offensive game has been uneven.
Lo and behold, Schwieger has really stepped up while Much is still not there as evidenced by the amount of minutes that he received last night.
I had it wrong about Schwieger -- simply missed it. Somehow, Mitch finds players like Stephens, Arirguzoh and Schwieger and the coaching staff develop these guys to become key players.
I do not think that there is enough talent behind the starting 5 to get to the promised land - IL regular season championship but the Tigers have enjoyed a great run.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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03-02-19 10:38 AM - Post#278814
In response to bradley
Much was injured in the first half. No word on his status for tonight. I hope we have him because he looks for, and often gets, good three point looks. No word on Henderson yet either, except that he "was sick" prior to the game.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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03-02-19 10:52 AM - Post#278815
In response to mmp629
A 23 point night, as the kid produced against Cornell, might well be considered fluky. But to get 20 the next night and 26 last night demonstrates a trend. This kid knows what he can do, a very different thing than hoping. Derosiers playing with a lot of confidence as well. If Jaelin ever finds his stroke we'll be very good. The winner tonight avoids the fourth place seeding. If the Tigers finish at 8-6 and so does Brown I believe Bruno gets the third seed.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-02-19 11:04 AM - Post#278817
In response to bradley
I want the IL Crown. Yale can have the damn Tourney. I’ll cheer for them when they play a #2 seed.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-02-19 11:11 AM - Post#278819
In response to Tiger69
I want the IL Crown. Yale can have the damn Tourney. I’ll cheer for them when they play a #2 seed.
I am with you but one can only hope that the Tigers want the IL crown as badly after qualifying for IvyMadness last night. I hope so and believe that they will play hard tonight even with the OT game.
For IvyMadness weekend, our family goes skiing. Our hopes were that the slopes would be empty in New England with everyone glued to IvyMadness but we have not found that to be the case.
Wish the Tigers well for IvyMadness but hope that the #1 seed gets the trip to the Big Dance like you.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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03-02-19 11:28 AM - Post#278822
In response to bradley
Jaelin currently has the worst true shooting percentage of any Ivy player with 20%+ usage since at least 2008:
http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sI...
On the other end, Matt Morgan this year is at the top of that leaderboard (on 31% usage!)
http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sI...
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-02-19 12:23 PM - Post#278830
In response to whitakk
ESPN game predictor has Tigers with a 24% chance to win and they will probably be a 6 1/2-7 pt underdog.
KenPom still has the Tigers as the 5th ranked IL team although we are getting closer to Brown and the Quakerites.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-02-19 02:17 PM - Post#278860
In response to bradley
How can we be rated below the quackers?
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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03-02-19 03:07 PM - Post#278866
In response to Tiger69
How can we be rated below the quackers?
My thoughts exactly.
Beaten them twice with a better record in the Ivy League.
Unfortunately, for me, Mr. Ken Pom doesn't post a phone number to back up his opinions.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-02-19 03:52 PM - Post#278880
In response to Tiger69
It is called the goofy world of analytics and statisticians. Might be also one of the reasons why mid-majors have been historically screwed.
Look at the bright side -- in the unlikely event that we win out, the Tigers may move into 3rd place in the KenPom ratings and tie or win the IL regular season -- you gotta love it.
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mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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Dartmouth
03-02-19 03:57 PM - Post#278884
In response to bradley
Kenpom's numbers are based on scoring margin adjusted for the strength of opponent and the location of the game. The reason being that scoring margin tends to be more predictive of a team's actual strength than just W-L.
Losing by 51 to Duke, and barely pulling out close wins over teams ranked around 300 (Monmouth and Lafayette) are the types of things that will sink your rating even if you have a good record overall.
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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Re: Dartmouth
03-02-19 05:04 PM - Post#278892
In response to mobrien
Penn is ranked higher than Princeton in every ranking system, not just KenPom, but also the NCAA's Net Rating, T-Rank, Sagarin, etc because they all look at the entire body of work, not just conference play. And in out-of-conference play, Penn's resume is so much better (Villanova, Miami, Temple, St. Joe's, @New Mexico), while Princeton has losses to Lehigh and FDU, and really only the one great win at Arizona State.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1885
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth
03-02-19 05:27 PM - Post#278897
In response to westcoast
Any formula fed into a computer can generate absurd outcomes, like Penn still being considered a better basketball team than Princeton at this point in the season. I would think these things could be tweaked to make the output line up more closely with actual results and current realities. Does KenPom discout results from early in the season, for example? Princeton’s miserable play at the beginning of the season is completely irrelevant to its current situation.
Cueing (triggering?) MRJames.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1345
Reg: 12-08-04
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Dartmouth
03-02-19 08:58 PM - Post#278981
In response to TigerFan
Never cared about rankings. You win, you're in or advance. I know they might theoretically matter to seeding, but I'm of the opinion ivies get discounted for that purpose, no matter what.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3665
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth
03-02-19 09:18 PM - Post#279003
In response to sparman
So many clumsy TOs and offensive boards conceded. After clinching the tourney berth last night, the guys lack urgency tonight.
Harvard has Senior Night and Kyrie in attendance...they're just playing a lot harder.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3665
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth
03-02-19 09:49 PM - Post#279028
In response to gokinsmen
[oops, wrong thread]
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